Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 12:50 PM   Moonset 1:33 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 140 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - W winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Tue - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 140 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered 1000 nm west of portland, oregon. A 1004 mb low was located in southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 162058 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 158 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
16/135 PM.

Strong onshore flow and a persistent marine layer will remain in place at least through the weekend. Night through morning low clouds and fog will be a staple of the forecast, clearing to the beaches each afternoon. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will occur each afternoon and evening across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas. Some warming with earlier clearing is possible next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/144 PM.

Very seasonably typical deep marine layer pattern this week and likely at least through the weekend as a weak troughing pattern continues to promote strong onshore flow. Temperatures will remain 3-6 degrees below normal across coast and valley into the weekend with slow (if any) clearing. Most valley areas should see at least some clearing in the afternoon but coastal areas will struggle, especially south of Pt Conception. Some drizzle is possible each morning, especially up against the coastal foothills. Farther inland such as the Antelope Valley, mountains, and interior SLO County skies will remains clear but breezy in the afternoon (especially near the AV) with temperatures a few degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/157 PM.

There is growing confidence that this persistent marine layer/strong onshore flow pattern will at least temporarily take a break early next week. The NAEFS ensemble gradients agree with the deterministic model gradients in showing a much weaker onshore flow by Tuesday following the passage of a trough through the Great Basin. This would create a stronger northerly component to the winds which will promote much earlier marine layer clearing and a warming trend for coast and valleys. Current forecast for next week still on the conservative side with very little change in temperatures, but if the ensembles continues to trend this direction the forecast should indicate a warming trend to at least normal temperatures soon.

AVIATION
16/2019Z.

At 20Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 5000 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

Moderate confidence in coastal, valley, and foothills TAFs, and high confidence in desert TAFs. Skies will continue clearing this afternoon north of Point Conception. Farther south, low stratus will generally persist at coastal, valley, and foothills sites, though there is a 30% chance for cigs to temporarily become VFR 22Z-02Z. Expect similar conds tonight compared to last night, with widespread cig restrictions for coastal, valley, and foothills TAF sites. Timing of cig restrictions could vary +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. For desert sites, VFR conditions are expected with west-southwest winds gusting to 30 kt during the afternoon and evening.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that cigs will scatter out between 22Z and 02Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that cig restrictions persist thru the day.

MARINE
16/119 PM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
There is a 40% chance that winds reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels this afternoon and evening -- highest chances in the southern two zones (PZZ673/676). There is a 20-40% chance of SCA winds/seas over the outer waters Sun night thru Tue -- highest chances in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673). Otherwise SCA conds are not expected.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, high forecast confidence.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels thru Tue.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate to high forecast confidence. There is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in the western portion of the SBA Channel this afternoon/evening and again during the afternoons of Mon and Tue. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Gaviota
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Thu -- 12:26 AM PDT     2.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:32 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:35 AM PDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:24 PM PDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:22 PM PDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM PDT     Sunset
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