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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 307 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Through 7 pm..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 307 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hazardous conditions will peak tonight as a strong storm system affects the waters. Conditions will then improve through Monday as high pressure builds back into the area and maintains control through the week.

FXUS62 KILM 102030 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 330 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds through tonight. High pressure will then build in for most of the week bringing cool and dry weather once again. Rain chances could increase late in the period due to a possible storm system to the south.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front will move through the area overnight, preceded by scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. The front will also be preceded by gusty S to SW winds that will become NW overnight and continue into Monday. Showers and storms tonight could bring produce winds near severe levels in isolated locations.
Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s after the front passes with highs Monday in the low to mid 50s.



SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The short term period...through Wednesday morning will be clear/sunny and cold. Surface high pressure will build in from the west slowly through the period as the mid level pattern turns to more of a westerly flow. Probably not the coldest air mass of the season but close. Highs will be in the lower to middle 50s with lows a degree or two either side of 30.



LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Clear and cold conditions will persist through mid and late week as the antecedent cold air mass gets reinforced by a shortwave skirting by to the north. Depending on where the surface high ends up and the attendant gradient...Friday morning could be the coldest of the season. Some of the lower guidance is also showing highs perhaps not getting out of the 40s Thursday. Low confidence best describes the later part of the period as a cut off low drops across the deep south with the GFS offering up a wetter solution as opposed to the drier ECMWF suite of guidance. Basically maintained the pops from the previous package.



AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Active TAF period with increasing shower coverage through the afternoon bringing temporary MVFR to possibly IFR cigs/vis at times to the coastal terminals. Frontal band of heavy showers and gusty winds will affect the inland terminals this evening with a sharp wind shift and IFR to potentially LIFR cigs and vis accompanying the front. This band will approach the coastal sites around midnight, bringing similarly poor vis/cigs, and a brief period of SSWly LLWS as a strengthening low-level jet passes overhead. Rapid improvement will sweep from west to east behind the front with conditions returning to VFR inland by 12Z.

Extended Outlook...VFR predominantly expected as high pressure dominates through the period.

MARINE
Through Monday...S winds to 15 to 20 KT this afternoon will veer to the SW this evening and become NW overnight after the front passes. Speeds will increase to 25 to 30 KT at the peak this evening into overnight with gusts of 35 to 40 KT possible.
Winds will diminish to 10 to 15 KT by late Monday. Seas of 4 to 6 FT will build to 6 to 9 FT overnight before subsiding to 4 to 6 FT by Monday afternoon.

Monday Night through Friday: Conditions calm down somewhat across the coastal waters late Monday and into mid week as high pressure builds in slowly across the waters. Winds will maintain a northerly component with speeds in a range of 10-15 knots. An arctic front will push across the area late Wednesday increasing winds and seas for a few days. Expect an enhanced northeast flow of 20-25 knots and seas, although somewhat marginal in small craft criteria.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Sun -- 04:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:18 AM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:24 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bannermans Branch
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Sun -- 12:52 AM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:44 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:28 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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