NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A line of showers and storms is currently bisecting the area with embedded pockets of heavy rain. This activity will generally migrate towards the coast into tonight as a cold front moves in from the north. High rainfall amounts could lead to fog overnight, but boundary layer winds appear stronger than yesterday which could inhibit formation. Regardless, low clouds should form and stick around through the morning until drier air starts to filter in behind the front which should be south of the area by Saturday afternoon. This will support dry conditions away from the coast where there's low chances for some showers in the afternoon, primarily for NE SC. Despite the relatively cooler air that should be coming in tonight, went a bit higher with lows because of the cloud cover and moist soils. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Highs Saturday will generally be in the mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A change of air mass arrives as relatively drier and cooler air continues to feed in as high pressure builds down from the north behind a cold front. Pcp water finally drops from over 2 inches to well below normal for this time of year. As the high edges down the coast into Sun, models show values as low as .7 over the tip of Cape Fear. Latest soundings show a very dry column overall, but lingering moisture from the previous days of rain could lead to a couple of afternoon cu. But overall, not expecting much if any clouds across the area on Sun. Dewpoint temps will drop from the mid to upper 70s down to the 60s leading to overnight lows Sat night in the 60s. Highs on Sun will rebound to the upper 80s to near 90 with full sunshine.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
After a day of relief, the winds will begin to shift back around as high pressure settles off the Carolina coast. The winds will shift around to a more typical southerly flow around the Bermuda High as the week progresses. The pcp water values rebound back toward 2 inches by Mon aftn inland of the coast.
Chance of pcp will be introduced back into the forecast by late Mon inland as subsidence behind mid to upper trough shifts eastward and shortwave follows with a mid to upper trough extending down into the Carolinas midweek. Overall, an increase in overall moisture and better upper level support will lead to an increase in mainly normal diurnal scattered shwr/tstm activity into midweek. The mid to upper trough should shift off the coast late Thurs into Fri with more limited coverage.

Temps will be back up to normal by Tues, near 90 for the high, and above normal through the remainder of the week with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Convection has pushed off the coast with northerly winds setting up over the area. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog may develop during the next few hours, before the north to northeast winds start to increase. Once the winds pick up, fog will be replaced by low stratus with IFR ceilings likely to prevail through the remainder of the night and a little past daybreak. There is potential for storm development along the NC coast which may affect ILM for a few hours after midnight, confidence is a bit low in this.

IFR will linger through mid morning Sat before ceilings lift/break up and VFR sets up. An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible along the coast but coverage will be very limited.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

MARINE
Through Saturday...Isolated instances of heavy rain are possible over the waters near the coast with increasing coverage expected late tonight as a front moves through early Saturday.
Visibilities may become 3 SM or lower in heavy rain. Improving conditions are expected Saturday as drier air filters in behind the front and high pressure builds from the north. This will bring stronger NE flow 15- 20 kts with gusts remaining sub-SCA thresholds. Seas will be 2-4 ft.

Saturday night through Wednesday...
A bit of a NE surge expected on Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds down the coast behind cold front. Winds will come back around to onshore by Sun night and a more typical southerly direction Mon into midweek as Bermuda High begins to dominate again.

Seas will increase in NE surge behind front Sat night into Sun, up to 3 to 4 ft, but as winds diminish through Sun, seas will subside back down to 2 to 3 ft by Sun night and remain 3 ft or less for the most part into midweek. A minimal SE swell will mix in.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.