Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:35PM Sunday April 5, 2020 3:12 PM EDT (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 4:33AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 952 Am Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Rest of today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of tstms through the day.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 952 Am Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure will prevail across the waters today while a large ocean low well off the mid-atlantic coast, moves farther offshore. Long period back-swells from this low will peak tonight. High pressure will drop off the southeast coast early next week, bringing sw winds. Low pressure passing north of the waters will bring moderate west winds Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
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location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 051728 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 128 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in from the north today before moving offshore on Monday, leading to a warmup. A few showers may pop up Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will also be possible Friday and Saturday as a cold front approaches.

UPDATE. Coastal Flood Advisory for inland New Hanover County was allowed to expire at 9 AM as water levels fell below advisory threshold. Going forecast this morning was in fine shape and only changes were those to reflect latest observations.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Quiet weather in store for today, outside chance for pockets of ground fog to develop early morning. Cirrus currently streaming from the west will continue through morning, followed by scattered mid- level clouds, as upper level impulses move across the SE. Highs today will be around 70 in coastal counties and mid-70s inland under mostly clear skies. High pressure slides offshore tonight through Monday morning, allowing return flow to develop and warm advection to continue. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 50s. Patchy fog possible Monday morning as dewpoints will be on the rise. Mid level ridge strengthens over the area Monday, and combined with return flow at the surface could see temps reach 80 degrees. Good chance we'll see scattered showers Monday afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms, as a healthy sea breeze interacts with a shallow trough from the NW around 950mb, and models indicating decent instability present.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Surface high lingers off the coast Mon night through Tue night with weak 5h ridge trying to build north from the Gulf of Mexico. Weak shortwave moving across the top of the flattened ridge will first spread clouds and then scattered showers over the area Tue into Tue night. Forcing is limited, but PVA ahead of the wave looks to be timed with peak heating. Although widespread thunder does not seem very likely, forecast soundings do show at least some potential and will go ahead and add slight chc thunder for Tue. Severe weather however, seems rather unlikely given weak wind profiles and limited shear. Temperatures will run well above climo.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Flat, but split mid-level flow will persist into the weekend. Frontal passage late in the week along with a couple weak mid-level waves will be potential sources of rainfall, although chances through the long term seem limited at best. Well above climo temps Wed and Thu drop back down to near to slightly below climo Fri and Sat following the front.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Scattered to broken mid-clouds are starting to move their way into the western parts of the forecast area, including KFLO. Elsewhere, the cloud deck remains above 10,000 feet. Winds now have a southeasterly or southerly component to them, and will continue to veer southwesterly throughout the TAF period. Patchy fog could occur before sunrise Monday morning, bringing visibilities down to MVFR for a few hours before eroding away around 14Z. There is a chance that isolated showers/storms could occur towards the very end of the 18Z TAF period, but confidence is currently too low to include those possibilities at the moment.

Extended Outlook . Flight restrictions are possible as early as Monday evening, but more likely on Tuesday. Flight restrictions lift mid-week, and look clear through the rest of the week.

MARINE. Calm marine conditions expected through Monday. High pressure ridging from the north today slides offshore tonight into Monday morning allowing return flow to develop. NE winds early today veers to SE by this evening, and then to the S tonight, remaining at or below 10 kts. SW flow Monday morning will strengthen throughout the day to around 15 kts by Monday evening. Seas 3-4 ft this morning will weaken to 2-3 ft this evening, before slowly increasing again late Monday. Predominantly a 13s easterly swell, combined with a decaying easterly wind wave early Sunday and a building SW wind wave late Monday.

High pressure off the Southeast coast will maintain southwest flow across the waters through Thu. Most of the time speeds will be 10 to 15 kt, the only exception being late Tue into Tue night and later Thu when increase in surface gradient results in 15 to 20 kt winds. Seas mostly 2 to 3 ft, except closer to 3 to 4 ft due to increased southwest flow Tue night and late Thu. South to southwest wind wave will be the dominant wave although there will be a weak easterly swell.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. With combination of lunar perigee and full moon on Tuesday, tides will run higher than normal the next few days. Current forecast has Downtown Wilmington reaching minor flooding at each high tide through Wednesday. Tide levels will also approach minor flooding for SE NC beaches each high tide.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . 31 NEAR TERM . VAO SHORT TERM . III LONG TERM . III AVIATION . IGB MARINE . VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . ILM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi54 min E 7 G 8 58°F 63°F1018.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi64 min E 7.8 G 12 57°F 63°F1019.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi32 min 63°F3 ft
WLON7 26 mi54 min 76°F 64°F1018.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi64 min NNE 7.8 G 12 65°F1017.3 hPa
41064 40 mi64 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 59°F 68°F1019.8 hPa
41159 40 mi42 min 68°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi16 minESE 610.00 miFair69°F44°F41%1018.5 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi19 minVar 410.00 miFair71°F43°F36%1018.4 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi16 minN 010.00 miFair70°F45°F41%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N12N9SE9S6E9E6E6E8NE4E5NE4N6N6N3N5N4NE6E4E4NE3NW44E6
1 day agoW16
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NW14W6CalmSW4SW6W7W6N11NE53NW4NW3SW4CalmN8N5N9N8NW14
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NW12--SW5W7W6W6W7W5W7W7W9NW10NW10NW9NW11NW12NW11NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:32 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-000.61.52.43.13.53.32.92.21.40.60.1-0.10.20.91.92.83.33.432.41.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:39 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:55 PM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:17 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.41.41.310.70.40.2-0-00.30.71.21.41.51.41.20.90.60.40.1-000.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.