Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 4:55 PM EST (21:55 UTC) Moonrise 4:49PMMoonset 6:21AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 247 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 247 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. Strong Wedge of high pressure will dominate the region this afternoon thru early Fri with gusty nw thru ne winds. Low pressure system is expected to affect the area during Fri into Sat with elevated winds and seas continuing.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
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location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 111953 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 253 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will bring a chilly period through Thursday. A coastal trough and wave of low pressure will bring rain late Friday through Saturday morning. High pressure will then give way to a cold front on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The weather for the next 36 hours will be dominated by high pressure behind a cold frontal passage that brought a big temperature change and gusty winds to the Cape Fear region. Highs this afternoon under cold air advection will range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s, which is between 5 and 10 degrees below normal and between 20 and 30 degrees below yesterdays maximum afternoon temperatures. As strong high pressure to the north moves eastward, the surface pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds up to 30 mph at times today and tonight. The wind direction will shift from the northwest to the northeast as the high pressure moves eastward Thursday and winds should relax a bit, although gusts could still reach into the 20 mph range at times Friday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A good dose of warm advection-induced rain to spread across the area late Friday. The better dynamics come Friday night but it appears they will lag the deep moisture. With this lack of phasing and poor deep layer lapse rates convection may be hard to come by, even the elevated variety. Near seasonable highs on Friday will not fall much Friday night in the ongoing warm advection.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Rain may linger a bit into Saturday even though the deep moisture will be moving off the coast-the main vort max will still be crossing the area. Dry air moves in Saturday night. By Sunday any weak cool advection will be offset by the return of sunshine and a fairly seasonable weekend is expected. Warm and moist advection spread west-to-east on Monday first only leading to increasing clouds but then rain chances. Tough to say when the latter materializes as it may be quite gradual and usually a bit slower than progged by models. Also, most of the WAA rain may stay north of the CWA and the best rain chances may come on Tuesday with cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. MVFR convective rolls from diurnal heating across our western areas, affecting KFLO, should clear out by 18z TAF time. Scattered to broken high clouds to linger into overnight hours before clearing out as high pressure builds into the region. Current northerly winds will die down by sunset, especially inland. Winds veer to northeasterly by tomorrow morning, with winds tomorrow 10-15 kts and gusts near 20 kts.

Extended Outlook . Another round of MVFR/IFR is possible Friday into Saturday as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas. VFR expected Sunday and Monday.

MARINE. High pressure will keep things dry offshore, but a building pressure gradient offshore is expected to kick up north to northeast winds over the next 36 hours between 20 and 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts at times. Significant wave heights between 5 and 7 feet are possible, especially beyond 10 NM. Wave trains from the southeast between 8 and 10 seconds and the north between 6 and 8 seconds. A small craft advisory remains in effect.

Winds and seas may dip below advisory thresholds on Friday as a coastal trough weakens the gradient. Surface low pressure moves up the coast Friday night and cold frontal passage expected to lead to a sharp turn to offshore flow soon thereafter on Saturday. The following cold air push may allow some 6 ft seas to once again necessitate an advisory, though it may be short-lived. Weakening winds and diminishing seas Sunday into early Monday as weak high moves off the coast. A return flow/southerly winds establishes itself by Monday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . MCK SHORT TERM . mbB LONG TERM . mbB AVIATION . VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi56 min NNW 11 G 14 50°F 57°F1028.6 hPa (+2.3)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi48 min NNE 16 G 19 50°F 58°F1028.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi46 min 58°F3 ft
WLON7 26 mi56 min 51°F 53°F1029.2 hPa (+2.4)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi48 min N 18 G 25 49°F 66°F1028.4 hPa
41064 40 mi48 min NNE 18 G 27 50°F 66°F1028.2 hPa
41159 40 mi56 min 66°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi2 hrsN 910.00 miOvercast48°F39°F71%1028.9 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi63 minNNW 1310.00 miFair50°F34°F54%1029.3 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi2 hrsN 710.00 miOvercast46°F37°F71%1029.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S7S6SW6SW4NW3NW7N7NW9N12N10
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2 days agoNW4N7N11NE9N5N5CalmCalmNW3NW6NW6N4N3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmW6S3S5--S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:49 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:02 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-00.311.92.83.43.53.22.721.20.60.100.41.11.92.62.82.72.21.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:40 PM EST     1.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:02 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.21.21.10.80.50.30.1-0.100.40.91.31.41.41.31.10.90.60.40.200.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.