Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday August 25, 2019 8:08 PM EDT (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:19AMMoonset 2:56PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 334 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of tstms early this evening. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then isolated showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered tstms. Scattered showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 334 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Strong high pressure will build in from the north through tomorrow as low pressure moves ne off the southeast u.s. Coast. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development is still possible with this system, and mariners should Monitor the forecast closely for any potential changes. A weaker pressure pattern is expected to develop over the area during Tuesday, before another front impacts the area around midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
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location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 252336
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
736 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will extend down into the carolinas from the north
as low pressure tracks north up through the offshore waters off
of the southeast coast early this week, lifting off to the
northeast through midweek. A cold front will cross the area late
Wednesday into Thursday, possibly stalling nearby next weekend.

Near term through Monday night
Wedge conditions in full effect this afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and some light radar returns. A sporadic
observations or two is reporting drizzle and or light rain and
will advertise this for a few more hours. Essentially a
persistence forecast with clouds and cool temperatures and a bit
on the breezy side. Clouds should slowly mix through the period
with partly cloudy skies later tonight and Monday. The cooler
guidance has been better for temperatures and leaned toward
these numbers through the period with dry conditions.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Looking at mid to upper level flow rather zonal for most of
this period with embedded weak S W trofs, ie. Vorts, passing
thru. It's at the end of this period where the flow aloft
slightly amplifies which is able to push an eastward moving
sfc cold front closer to the fa. Tue will see low chance pops
with CAPE availability remains quite limited. For Wed thru wed
night, look for an increase to 20-40 pops as moisture increases
thru the atm column and CAPE becoming more avbl. Activity both
days will primarily be diurnally driven. MAX temps near normal
and night time lows at or slightly above normal.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Beginning of this period will highlight the slow push of the
cold front across the fa Thu and moving off the ilm CWA coast
before stalling. Pops will be at their highest during the thu
into Fri timeline. Then back down to climo pops for the
remainder of the long term period. Models are indicating the
weakly amplified mid-upper trof at the beginning of this period
to retreat back to the north Sat thru sun. Pops could increase
to above climo during the last 2 days of this period and will
depend on the stalled sfc boundary still existing at this time,
with the possibility of it returning back inland and to the
north, and ultimately moving back across the fa. Will indicate
at pops at 30 which is climo for the 2 days and wait until some
model consistency to change the pops. MAX temps this period will
hang around the climo norms, with min temps at or slightly hier
than the norm especially across the coastal counties within the
fa.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
As of 00z... CIGS currently in theVFR category but expect to see
them lower to MVFR overnight. Some guidance indicating ifr at
coastal terminals late tonight but confidence in that is low. After
sunrise, CIGS should lift toVFR by about mid morning withVFR
conditions expected to continue through the remainder of the valid
taf period. N to NE winds of 5 to 10 kt are expected overnight with
speeds INVOF 10 kt after daybreak and gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible.

Extended... MainlyVFR Mon night and Tue as high pressure dominates
and tropical or subtropical system lifts NE off the coast. Next
frontal system Wed Thu timeframe may bring additional restrictions.

Marine
Tonight thru Mon night:
small craft conditions almost there and with gusts its
essentially in place. More of a marginal event with the
latest guidance. Six footers should enter the spectrum shortly
and remain so through midday Monday. These seas are courtesy
of a persistent northeast flow of 15-20 knots with the
aforementioned higher gusts. Speeds will diminish somewhat
Monday afternoon to 10- 15 knots. It should be noted the
tropical entity offshore could still pose a threat although
chances are near remote. If it finally develops the most
likely impacts would be to increase the gradient and
subsequently wind speeds.

Tue thru fri:
a somewhat chaotic sfc pressure pattern thru most of this period
and along with that a rather weak sfc pg to exist. This will
result in wind directions all over the place, however will
identify a direction in lieu of going variable. Speeds 10 to
possibly 15 kt tue, otherwise 10 kt or less Tue night thru thu
night. Depending on the strength of the mesoscale sea breeze,
winds within 10 nm of the coast from midday thru early evening
each day, could temporarily reach around 15 kt. For late thu
into fri, models hint of a cold front reaching the east coast
and stalling along or just off the carolina coasts. Could see
ne-ene at 10-15 kt due to a slightly tighten sfc pg.

Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft Tue with wind driven waves
at 4 to 5 second periods common. With synoptic wind speeds
rather negligent to wind driven wave production, the ese
becoming E swell at 7 to 8 second periods will dominate. At the
height of the sea breeze, seas nearshore will be dominated by
wind waves. For Wed thru fri, seas will depend on how much the
tropical entity intensifies and if it stays closer to the coast
after passing CAPE hatteras. The back swell from this system
could become a factor for the remainder of the week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Monday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Shk mcw
short term... Dch
long term... Dch
aviation... 31
marine... Dch shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi69 min N 12 G 14 74°F 83°F1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi61 min NNE 19 G 25 76°F 83°F1015.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi29 min 83°F5 ft
WLON7 26 mi69 min 74°F 85°F1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi61 min NNE 19 G 29 78°F 83°F1014.9 hPa
41064 40 mi61 min NE 21 G 29 79°F 83°F1015.4 hPa
41159 40 mi39 min 83°F6 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi73 minN 1110.00 miOvercast76°F63°F64%1016.7 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi76 minN 810.00 miOvercast74°F62°F67%1016.5 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi73 minN 610.00 miOvercast73°F62°F69%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE12N8NE6N7N6N6N6N7N9N7N9N9N13NE11N12NE13
G20
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1 day agoW6SW3CalmCalmNW4W5CalmW4N3N6N8N9N12NE6NE7NE9NE6N10N7N8N8N10NE12N8
2 days agoCalmS5S3S6SW6S5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW3SW4SW7SW11W9SW66S7SE11S10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:17 AM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:52 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:09 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.52.82.72.421.510.60.50.81.32.12.93.43.53.32.92.41.81.20.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.