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Marine Weather and Tides Holly Ridge, NC Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:42AM

Sunset 7:39PM

Friday April 10, 2020 7:39 AM EDT (11:39 UTC)

Moonrise 9:54PM

Moonset 7:42AM

Illumination 93%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 101122 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 722 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in with cooler and drier conditions through early Saturday. A storm system will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into the day Monday. Dry and cooler weather should arrive after cold front late Monday into Tuesday, but it could get more unsettled again through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Dry wx for the entire near term period as high pressure builds into and over the area from the NW. Main story today will be elevated fire danger, due to RH falling to around 25% and 15-20 mph winds gusting up to 25 mph. After some cloudiness over southern areas this morning, expect a clear sky this aftn everyone which will continue through Sat. High temps in the 60s both days, with lows tonight in the 30s. No frost expected due to the low RH. No fire wx concerns for Sat due to light winds as the sfc high moves through the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. With high pressure shifting farther off the NC coast, a southerly return flow will bring an increase of warm and moist air Sat night through Sun. Pcp water values will increase about an inch from Sat night to Sun night as low level flow increases out of the south, capturing both Atlantic and Gulf moisture. A potent low will track up through the Mississippi Valley Sun reaching the Great Lakes by Mon morning. This system will pull a warm front north late Sun. Expect clouds and chc of pcp to increase through late Sun with the best dynamics remaining west of local forecast area, but may see svr weather extend just far enough east to affect areas west of I-95 Sun eve.

Strong LLJ will continue to pump plenty of moisture into the area with increasing dynamics and instability heading into Mon morning as shortwave and upper level jet track eastward. SPC has chc of severe weather outlined along the Southeast coast spanning across our entire forecast area. If timing is delayed, it could combine with better heating of the day on Monday to produce a greater severe potential with increasing damaging wind and tornado potential. For now, looks like best chc will come Mon morning. Will have to monitor closely to see how system evolves over time. Temps closer to 50 Sat night will increase into the 70s on Sunday and will remain up in the 60s Sun night with temps into the 80s by Mon and dewpoint temps increasing into the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Cooler and drier air will be moving in behind exiting cold front Mon eve, but broad mid to upper trough to the west will leave deep SW flow along the Southeast coast allowing front to linger to the south. Waves of low pressure will develop along the lingering boundary and may lift far enough north to produce clouds and shwrs back in forecast late Tues into Wed. GFS keeps best axis of pcp off to the southeast, but ECMWF runs heaviest rain right through local forecast area on Wed. Should see some drying again on Thurs. Temps will run below normal through much of the week.

Not much of a break beyond this initial system as pops remain the forecast via possible southern stream energy. The "net"of temperatures will probably be around normal with warmer than climatology early and cooler by the end of the period.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Winds mainly 8-11 knots early this morning, but should ramp up again by the mid-morning hours, gusting up to 20-25 kt by midday. Otherwise, we'll see circus clouds or clear skies.

Extended Outlook . VFR conditions continue through the weekend. Flight restrictions possible late Sunday into Monday with an approaching low pressure system. VFR for mid next week.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue today through early this evening with frequent gusts to 25 kt expected behind a cold front moving farther offshore. Seas 2-4 ft. Improving marine conditions then for tonight into Sat as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. Winds only around 10 kt expected for Sat. With the weak winds and lack of any discernible swell component, seas only 1-2 ft.

High pressure will shift farther off to the east as a potent low pressure system reaches the Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then moves northeast toward the Great Lakes by Mon. This will produce increasing southerly winds Sun through early Mon. Initially, winds will be S 10 to 15 kts Sat eve but will ramp up to 20 to 25 kts late Sun into Sun night and should reach up to 30 kts by Mon morning just ahead of approaching cold front. Gusts to Gale are also possible early Mon.

Seas will reach SCA thresholds, 6 to 8 ft, by Sun eve and should peak Mon morning 7 to 10 ft. Expect small craft conditions Sun evening through Mon night. Once cold front crosses the waters late Mon, winds will become offshore to northerly diminishing in intensity. This will allow seas to subside, but will not drop below SCA thresholds until early Tues morning. Northerly flow will continue into midweek.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . IGB MARINE . MAS/RGZ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC	21 mi	51 min	N 8 G 12	59°F	62°F		1004.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	25 mi	31 min	N 16 G 21	60°F	64°F		1005.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC	25 mi	29 min			64°F	3 ft
WLON7	26 mi	51 min		59°F	69°F		1005.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	37 mi	31 min	N 18 G 25		67°F		1003.3 hPa
41064	40 mi	91 min	NNE 19 G 29	62°F	65°F		1004.2 hPa
41159	40 mi	39 min			64°F	5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC

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SW12 G16

SW13 G16

W12 G18

N8 G12

S6

S12

S12 G15

S13 G16

W9 G17

W14 G23

SW13 G20

SW14 G17

S14

SW10

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SW14 G19

W11 G16

W12 G16

W9 G14

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NW9 G14

N13 G17

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1 day ago

W11 G15

W10 G17

W11 G20

W12 G17

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NW6 G11

S9

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SW13 G17

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N19

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S10

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SW10 G14

2 days ago

W5 G8

SW8 G11

W7 G11

W7 G12

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S16 G20

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S11

SW11

SW9 G12

SW12 G16

SW13 G17

SW9 G13

SW11 G16

SW16 G21

SW14 G19

SW15 G20

W12 G18

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
MCAS New River, NC	17 mi	43 min	NW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	54°F	33°F	45%	1005.3 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC	22 mi	46 min	N 6	10.00 mi	Fair	58°F	30°F	36%	1005.6 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC	23 mi	43 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	51°F	37°F	59%	1005.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)

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W6

NW18 G25

E4

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W10 G22

W16 G27

W17 G25

W11 G19

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1 day ago

W10

W13 G21

W12 G20

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NW14 G18

N12

NW7 G15

5

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N17 G27

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2 days ago

SW3

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W11

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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