Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:39PM Friday April 10, 2020 7:39 AM EDT (11:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 641 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms through the day.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 641 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Breezy nw winds continue today. Fair weather will prevail through the weekend with easing nw winds into Saturday. A cold front will bring rain Sunday through Monday, with rough marine conditions expected as S and sw winds intensify. The front will cross the coast on Monday. Advisory flags are expected for small craft, ahead of and behind this cold front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
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location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 101122 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 722 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in with cooler and drier conditions through early Saturday. A storm system will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into the day Monday. Dry and cooler weather should arrive after cold front late Monday into Tuesday, but it could get more unsettled again through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Dry wx for the entire near term period as high pressure builds into and over the area from the NW. Main story today will be elevated fire danger, due to RH falling to around 25% and 15-20 mph winds gusting up to 25 mph. After some cloudiness over southern areas this morning, expect a clear sky this aftn everyone which will continue through Sat. High temps in the 60s both days, with lows tonight in the 30s. No frost expected due to the low RH. No fire wx concerns for Sat due to light winds as the sfc high moves through the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. With high pressure shifting farther off the NC coast, a southerly return flow will bring an increase of warm and moist air Sat night through Sun. Pcp water values will increase about an inch from Sat night to Sun night as low level flow increases out of the south, capturing both Atlantic and Gulf moisture. A potent low will track up through the Mississippi Valley Sun reaching the Great Lakes by Mon morning. This system will pull a warm front north late Sun. Expect clouds and chc of pcp to increase through late Sun with the best dynamics remaining west of local forecast area, but may see svr weather extend just far enough east to affect areas west of I-95 Sun eve.

Strong LLJ will continue to pump plenty of moisture into the area with increasing dynamics and instability heading into Mon morning as shortwave and upper level jet track eastward. SPC has chc of severe weather outlined along the Southeast coast spanning across our entire forecast area. If timing is delayed, it could combine with better heating of the day on Monday to produce a greater severe potential with increasing damaging wind and tornado potential. For now, looks like best chc will come Mon morning. Will have to monitor closely to see how system evolves over time. Temps closer to 50 Sat night will increase into the 70s on Sunday and will remain up in the 60s Sun night with temps into the 80s by Mon and dewpoint temps increasing into the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Cooler and drier air will be moving in behind exiting cold front Mon eve, but broad mid to upper trough to the west will leave deep SW flow along the Southeast coast allowing front to linger to the south. Waves of low pressure will develop along the lingering boundary and may lift far enough north to produce clouds and shwrs back in forecast late Tues into Wed. GFS keeps best axis of pcp off to the southeast, but ECMWF runs heaviest rain right through local forecast area on Wed. Should see some drying again on Thurs. Temps will run below normal through much of the week.

Not much of a break beyond this initial system as pops remain the forecast via possible southern stream energy. The "net"of temperatures will probably be around normal with warmer than climatology early and cooler by the end of the period.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Winds mainly 8-11 knots early this morning, but should ramp up again by the mid-morning hours, gusting up to 20-25 kt by midday. Otherwise, we'll see circus clouds or clear skies.

Extended Outlook . VFR conditions continue through the weekend. Flight restrictions possible late Sunday into Monday with an approaching low pressure system. VFR for mid next week.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue today through early this evening with frequent gusts to 25 kt expected behind a cold front moving farther offshore. Seas 2-4 ft. Improving marine conditions then for tonight into Sat as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. Winds only around 10 kt expected for Sat. With the weak winds and lack of any discernible swell component, seas only 1-2 ft.

High pressure will shift farther off to the east as a potent low pressure system reaches the Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then moves northeast toward the Great Lakes by Mon. This will produce increasing southerly winds Sun through early Mon. Initially, winds will be S 10 to 15 kts Sat eve but will ramp up to 20 to 25 kts late Sun into Sun night and should reach up to 30 kts by Mon morning just ahead of approaching cold front. Gusts to Gale are also possible early Mon.

Seas will reach SCA thresholds, 6 to 8 ft, by Sun eve and should peak Mon morning 7 to 10 ft. Expect small craft conditions Sun evening through Mon night. Once cold front crosses the waters late Mon, winds will become offshore to northerly diminishing in intensity. This will allow seas to subside, but will not drop below SCA thresholds until early Tues morning. Northerly flow will continue into midweek.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . IGB MARINE . MAS/RGZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi51 min N 8 G 12 59°F 62°F1004.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi31 min N 16 G 21 60°F 64°F1005.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi29 min 64°F3 ft
WLON7 26 mi51 min 59°F 69°F1005.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi31 min N 18 G 25 67°F1003.3 hPa
41064 40 mi91 min NNE 19 G 29 62°F 65°F1004.2 hPa
41159 40 mi39 min 64°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi43 minNW 410.00 miFair54°F33°F45%1005.3 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi46 minN 610.00 miFair58°F30°F36%1005.6 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair51°F37°F59%1005.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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SW8SW7W7W5W7W10W7NW14N12N10N8N6NW4
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2 days agoSW3SW5W7W6W4W5SE336S9S6S7S5S6SW6SW4SW9SW9SW6SW10W9SW9W9W11

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:56 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:22 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:00 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:46 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.21.20.3-0.3-0.4-0.10.81.92.83.33.32.82.11.20.4-0.1-0.4-0.10.81.933.73.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.