Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:25PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 11:26 AM EDT (15:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:34AMMoonset 1:57PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1013 Am Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Rest of today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1013 Am Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak front stalled just offshore will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build south along the east coast Wednesday and Thursday, moving away from the area Friday and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
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location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 141404 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1000 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week, maintaining hot and humid weather along with isolated thunderstorms. Storms could increase in coverage again this weekend, as the ridge flattens and brings the storm track a little closer to the area.

UPDATE/. No changes to the forecast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Slightly drier air has built into the Carolinas the wake of yesterday's convection and weak surface cold front now stalling just off the coast. The bigger changes have actually occurred aloft where the atmosphere is now sharply drier and a little warmer due to subsidence downstream of an upper ridge building in from the west. From a thermodynamic standpoint these changes should limit the coverage and intensity of any convection today as rising parcels will contend with a cap 10-20kft aloft and very dry air above 700 millibars. I'm only forecasting a slight chance (20 percent) of a shower or t-storm today in a few spots (seabreeze zone and Sandhills) with dry weather prevailing elsewhere. Highs should again rise into the 90s almost everywhere with heat indices 100+ degrees.

Mostly clear and quiet tonight with lows 73-77. A little stronger onshore wind on Wednesday may keep temperatures down a couple of degrees versus today, however dewpoints in the 70s will still produce heat indices near 100 degrees. Only isolated showers or storms are possible Wednesday despite a little more Atlantic moisture since the upper ridge will be located almost directly overhead.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The story for the short term will be a brief push of slightly cooler and drier air from the northeast. Some highs in the upper 80s are actually showing p in the forecast for Thursday. The mid levels will be very dry and generally hostile to convection although some sea breeze isolated activity cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. After a very brief and somewhat isolated reprieve from the summertime doldrums hot and humid conditions return for the extended period. Trends are for the East to West oriented mid level ridge to control conditions through about Saturday or so, a little longer than previous cycles. Overall for the forecast the storyline of increasing pops remains intact incorporating the recent trend. As for temperatures, perhaps a slight cooling trend late in the period with the increase in moisture but overall heat index values will continue to merit a look see each afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Due to dry air aloft, convection will be much less today, possibly only CU formation. Southwest flow today with temperatures climbing to around 90.

Extended Outlook . Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in scattered diurnal convection, however coverage should be 20 percent or less each day.

MARINE. A weak front stalling off the coast this morning should lead to light northeast winds. However this afternoon's seabreeze should veer winds more directly onshore. Speeds should remain 10 kt or less. By Wednesday high pressure building down the East Coast from New England will establish a little better synoptic gradient and east winds should average 10 kt. There's still a southeast fresh swell at 7 seconds period that will be our dominant wave group today. Wave heights measured by buoys around 4 feet this morning should slowly decrease throughout the day, and will average only 2 feet by late tonight into Wednesday.

A very subtle northeast flow will be in place for a few hours shifting quickly to southeast via the sea breeze and synoptic conditions. This flow will be in place through about Saturday with more of a southwest flow developing later in the weekend into early next week as the Piedmont Trough becomes a bit more prominent. Still wind speeds should be ten knots or so at most with maybe a slight increase early next week. Significant seas will be mostly in a 2-3 ft narrow range.


ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . 43 MARINE . TRA/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi87 min 81°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi79 min N 7.8 G 12 79°F 83°F1014.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi50 min 83°F3 ft
WLON7 26 mi87 min 83°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi79 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 84°F1015.1 hPa
41064 40 mi79 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 82°F 84°F1014.8 hPa
41159 40 mi61 min 84°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi91 minNNE 410.00 miFair82°F71°F69%1015.2 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi94 minN 710.00 miFair84°F71°F65%1015 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi91 minN 310.00 miFair82°F73°F77%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS55SE7NE10
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SE10SW4SW9N5CalmS4SE5CalmNE3NW4CalmNW3CalmN3CalmN4NW4N4NE3
1 day agoE5SE6SE4SE7S9S9S9S7CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW3SW3SW5SW4NW6N6E3SE4SE4
2 days agoSW4Calm4S8S6S8S11NW8CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW4W3SW4SW6W3W3W3S4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:40 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:48 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.32.52.42.11.71.20.80.50.50.71.31.92.52.932.82.41.91.410.70.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.