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Marine Weather and Tides Holly Ridge, NC Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:14AM

Sunset 5:24PM

Friday January 17, 2020 7:40 AM EST (12:40 UTC)

Moonrise 12:07AM

Moonset 12:01PM

Illumination 53%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 171046 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 546 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cool and breezy today as high pressure builds in. The high will slip offshore late tonight, bringing a brief weekend warmup ahead of another cold front. Showers Saturday night and early Sunday can be expected as the front approaches and moves through the area. Much colder temperatures will follow early next week, as air of Arctic origin dips into the Carolinas.

UPDATE. Cirrus-coverage trends remaining neutral, encountering a good deal of evaporation, while mountain induced cirro-stratus was steaming mainly north of the SE corner of NC. A few adjustments to sky cover were made with the daybreak updates, and hourly temperatures tweaked through early morning based on a bit more sunshine than previous accounted for, no other changes.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Temperatures curves likely to progress flatly over much of NE SC where extensive cirrus will squelch warming in a cold air advection regime. Current temperatures across the overcast areas are very near forecast maximum temperatures for today. Sunshine should bring SE NC temp curves up several degrees, but a struggle for max-T to crack 50 degrees. We should observe maximum 10-meter winds around 15z/10am, as mixing and a tight pressure gradient overlap. Dewpoints will drop into the upper teens by midday for may locals, with afternoon min-RH of 30-35 percent.

Saturday robust return flow sees T/Td taking big climbs, especially in afternoon as winds trend and veer toward S. Rain chances begin increase through the end of this period by late day Saturday, as a cold front nears. Rain chances best far inland zones, and along the immediate coast where convergence showers may scrape parts of the Cape Fear region. The pronounced but brief warming will bring max-T Saturday a few degrees above normal for middle January, joined by moderate SE-SSE breezes near the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A warm and moist SW return flow ahead of approaching cold front Saturday night will maintain mild temps in the 50s with clouds and some pcp. Column never becomes fully saturated with pcp water around 1.2 inches. Expect low end QPF overnight Saturday with plenty of dry air moving in behind front on Sunday. Any lingering pcp into Sun morning will move off to the east. The deeper colder air will be delayed until Sun night with temps remaining on the warm side initially on Sunday with clearing skies through the day. CAA will come in force with 850 temps dropping from near 10c Sun aftn down to 0c by Mon morning. Temps will drop a good 20 to 30 degrees from aftn highs closer to 60 down to lows close to freezing most places.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Chilly air mass will take hold of the Carolinas early to mid week. CAA will continue to bring temps down below normal. Plenty of sunshine will only bring temps up into the 40s to near 50 with Tues, the coldest day with temps in the mid 40s most places. Temps will be down in the mid 20s Mon night and Tues night with best radiational cooling and coldest temps Tues night. As mid to upper trough digs down and swings across the Carolinas Mon night, would not be surprised to see some passing clouds with maybe a flurry or two around. The ECMWF is more aggressive with a cutoff low developing as it shifts off the coast Tues into Wed with pcp close enough to possibly affect the coast or nearby coastal waters. For now will keep with the dry and chilly air mass and no pcp through mid week. Air mass will begin to modify Wed night into Thurs as ridge builds over the Southeast and high shifts slowly eastward. Overall, will see a rebound toward normal or above normal temps Thurs into Fri, with any pcp holding off possibly until the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR this TAF cycle, gusty N winds after 14z, up to 24 kt, gusts easing below 18 kt after 20z today. This evening winds will diminish to NE 4-8 kt. Mainly cirrus this TAF period, may see light turbulence downstream of mountains, as weak standing waves develop. Great VSBY, no restrictions expected.

Extended Outlook . VFR. Showers possible Saturday night and Sunday, could lower ceilings to MVFR early Sunday.

MARINE. The cold air surge will be carried by N-NNE wind, raising 'Advisory' flags for small craft vessels today, due to gusts of 30 kt offshore. Improvements will get underway later today, as a diminishing wind trend begins, with advisory flags likely to drop after nightfall. The wave spectrum will see transition of wave-direction from NE today, veering to S Saturday afternoon, dominant wave periods mostly between 6-7 seconds.

S-SW return flow will increase through Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front, This will push seas up quite rapidly Sat eve into SCA conditions Sat night into Sun as winds veer around to the SW-W and eventually NW. Small Craft conditions should last into Sun night as winds shift around to the north as plenty of cold and dry air rush over the waters as cold front moves off to the east through early next week. Sea fog also possible late Saturday into early Sunday before winds become westerly. Seas will diminish through Mon in diminishing northerly flow. Expect seas to drop below SCA thresholds by early Mon morning becoming 2 to 4 ft through Tues. Should see a spike in seas as shortwave passes across waters Tues into Wed.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252.



SYNOPSIS . 8 UPDATE . 8 NEAR TERM . Colby SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . MJC MARINE . MJC/RGZ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC	21 mi	52 min	N 14 G 19	42°F	56°F		1033.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	25 mi	32 min	NNE 19 G 25	44°F	57°F		1034.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC	25 mi	30 min			57°F	4 ft
WLON7	26 mi	52 min		42°F	56°F		1034.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	37 mi	32 min	NNE 25 G 33	45°F	60°F		1033.8 hPa
41064	40 mi	32 min	NNE 23 G 35	47°F	63°F		1033.7 hPa
41159	40 mi	40 min			62°F	7 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC

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W6 G9

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NW12 G18

NW11 G21

N17 G24

NW14 G21

N9 G14

NW11 G15

NW6 G10

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SW16 G20

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
MCAS New River, NC	17 mi	44 min	N 10	10.00 mi	Fair	38°F	19°F	46%	1035.2 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC	22 mi	47 min	NNE 10	10.00 mi		40°F	21°F	47%	1035.1 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC	23 mi	44 min	N 9 G 15	10.00 mi	Fair	38°F	17°F	43%	1036 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)

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SW8

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NW17 G22

NW13

NW22 G28

NW14 G22

NW10 G19

NW5

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1 day ago

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SW9 G16

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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