Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:59PM Thursday December 5, 2019 4:41 PM EST (21:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:34PMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 334 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Tonight..N winds 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 334 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will prevail today through early Friday. The next cold frontal passage will occur Friday night followed by strong high pressure from the north ridging across the area through the weekend. Increasingly unsettled weather will develop next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
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location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 052044 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 344 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. Warmer weather on Friday will be followed by clouds and chance of rain Friday night as a cold front moves through. Cool and dry high pressure will build down from the north on Saturday with a wedge developing by Sunday. Unsettled but warm weather will come Sun night through early next week as a warm front lifts north. A cold front will move through by Wednesday bringing colder weather for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The main focus for the near term now shifts to the system currently moving across the Four Corners Region. Really no changes with the forecast or the way this system evolves over our area. As the dampening shortwave moves across a Coastal Trough will be developing as high pressure moves offshore. There seems to be a little enhancement to the trough by the weakening mid level system but most of the heavier activity seems to remain offshore. Long story short, low chance pops are in place west to east but higher values will occur late east and mainly offshore. All of this occurs Friday night into the morning Saturday. As for tonight and Friday very quiet with lows in the middle 30s and highs Friday a bit higher than today's values with middle 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will build in behind exiting cold front on Saturday. Any lingering clouds will clear out leaving plenty of sunshine with cooler and drier air mass building in. Northerly winds will increase, especially along the coast as wedge and coastal trough produce a tightened gradient late Sat into Sunday. With cool shallow air locked in and warm moist southerly flow developing, expect low clouds to develop across area into Sunday. Should see increasing chc of pcp mainly associated with coastal trough just off shore and increasing lift along the coast by later on Sunday into Sun night coastal trough/warm front pushes inland and north eroding wedge. Temps will remain on the cool side in northerly flow through the weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Increasing deep S-SW return flow develops on Mon with plenty of warm and moist air flowing into the Carolinas. As warm front and best lift moves well north, should see a break in pcp and may see some breaks in clouds later on Mon into early Tues. Can not rule out a shwr, but looks like best lift and support aloft will reach the area from the west Tues aftn into Tues night. Temps should warm considerably Mon and Tues, especially in places with breaks in clouds.

Cold high pressure will build in behind front on Wed. Max temps should hold in the 50s both Wed and Thurs. GFS pushes front well to south as a gulf coast system develops into Thurs. This would allow area to clear out Wed into Thurs with more in the way of sunshine. ECMWF is much faster and more aggressive with this southern stream system which would keep more unsettled weather through mid week with greater chc of clouds and pcp.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Clear skies with a few cirrus passing overhead and VFR throughout the period. Winds will be out of the northwest during the day and become calm overnight. A few gusts are possible this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Very low chance for fog/stratus overnight.

Extended Outlook . Mostly VFR. TEMPO MVFR conditions possible, associated with a cold front, late Fri and again Sun into Mon.

MARINE. Very light wind fields expected across the waters through the near term period. Wind speeds will be ten knots or less. Wind direction however will be quite changeable. The current northwest flow will swing around to east, southeast by Friday afternoon and by early Saturday a northerly component will have returned with the passage of a cold front. Significant seas will be mostly in a tight range of 1-2 feet.

High pressure will build in from the north on Saturday with coastal trough developing into Sunday. Will see increasing NE flow in tightening gradient late Sat into Sun. Seas will rise up to 3 to 5 ft with possible SCA conditions, especially for the outer waters and north of Cape Fear. As coastal trough/warm front lifts north Sun night into Mon, deep southerly return flow will develop and should increase late Tues into Wed as a cold front approaches from the west. SCA thresholds should be met for portions of early to mid week in increasing southerly flow. The cold front will move through Tues night into Wed with veering winds to the W-NW as cold high pressure builds in.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . SHK SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . 21 MARINE . RGZ/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi59 min W 5.1 G 8.9 60°F 57°F1017.8 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi93 min NW 9.7 G 16 58°F 58°F1017.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi61 min 58°F1 ft
WLON7 26 mi59 min 63°F 54°F1018.4 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi93 min NW 12 G 18 58°F 65°F1017.8 hPa
41064 40 mi93 min NNW 12 G 18 57°F 66°F1017.7 hPa
41159 40 mi41 min 66°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi45 minNW 910.00 miFair57°F23°F27%1018.7 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi48 minNW 610.00 miFair60°F23°F24%1018.8 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi1.8 hrsW 710.00 miFair57°F26°F30%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:37 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:07 AM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:18 PM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:17 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.42.62.52.21.81.40.90.60.60.81.31.82.42.62.62.31.91.40.90.50.40.40.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.