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Marine Weather and Tides Holly Ridge, NC Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:14AM

Sunset 6:35PM

Wednesday October 16, 2019 5:34 PM EDT (21:34 UTC)

Moonrise 7:33PM

Moonset 8:40AM

Illumination 89%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC

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Fxus62 kilm 161900 afdilm area forecast discussion national weather service wilmington nc 300 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019 Synopsis A cold front will cross the region this evening, bringing much drier air to the region overnight. Unseasonably cool weather will arrive Thursday as high pressure builds in through Friday. Temperatures will warm through the weekend as the high shifts offshore. Rainfall chances will increase early next week as gulf low pressure approaches. Near term through Thursday night Deepening low pressure moved across the area earlier today along a warm front. Rainfall amounts averaged half an inch or better in most locations, except for parts of bladen and columbus counties where barely a tenth of an inch fell. Dual-pol radar estimates even in areas not affected by beam blockage were a little on the low side. The low is now in far-eastern north carolina and will move out to sea tonight. A cold front trailing behind the low is just about to push from the piedmont into the coastal plain and should be off the coast this evening. West winds will shift northwesterly behind the front with falling dewpoints heralding the arrival of the new airmass. High-res models show limited potential for some shallow forced showers along the front within a moist but only slightly unstable airmass. I'm capping pops at 20 percent (slight chance) during the frontal passage, with dry conditions and clearing skies expected overnight. Crisp and typical fall weather is expected Thursday into Thursday night. Enough boundary layer wind should exist near the coast tonight to keep temperatures relatively warm (lower 50s). Normally cooler outlying rural areas will probably run a good 5 degrees lower. Highs should reach the upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday, but good radiational cooling conditions on Thursday night should produce widespread 40s and potentially a couple upper 30s in the coldest locations. We're still a few weeks away from the climatological first fall freeze for this part of the carolinas. Short term Friday through Saturday night Exiting 5h trough and high pressure building in from the northwest will keep the region dry Fri into sat. West-northwest flow aloft fri and mid-level subsidence will minimize cloud cover. Despite lots of sunshine highs will struggle to break 70 in most areas fri afternoon. Clear skies for much of Fri night and decoupled winds will lead to lows dropping into the low to mid 40s with potential for cold spots dipping into the upper 30s. Moisture aloft starts spreading over the area Sat as shortwave 5h ridge axis shifts offshore and southerly flow develops. Gulf coast system moving onshore along the fl panhandle Sat evening helps spread deep moisture over the southeast. Still some uncertainty with respect to how quickly the system will be moving, but there are signals clouds and showers associated with this feature may reach the forecast area before the end of the period. Will bump pop up a bit across sc Sat night to account for potential for quicker northeastward movement. Temperatures will be near climo Sat with increasing cloud cover somewhat offsetting air mass modification. Clouds and increasing boundary layer winds will keep lows above climo Sat night. Long term Sunday through Wednesday Low pressure trough moving into the southeast from the northeast gulf of mexico Sun morning moves up the coast early next week. Still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the nature of the low, but it will bring an abundance of moisture with it. 12z GFS is noticeably quicker with the low compared to its previous runs, wpc, and the ecmwf. So timing is somewhat questionable. This feature is then followed by a cold front ahead of a deep 5h trough late Mon into tue. These 2 events will be the main chance for rainfall through midweek with deep west-northwest flow developing Tue and continuing wed, drying the region out.

-showers developing Sun morning as low trough combo move into the southeast from the gulf of mexico. -showers and isolated thunderstorms with a cold front crossing the area tue. -above to well above climo temps Sun through Tue drop back to climo midweek following the Tue cold front. Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday Conditions will begin to improve quickly over the next few hours, with the warm front to our north and a cold front approaching from the west. Currently widespread ifr ceilings across the area. Expect widespreadVFR by 21z, with any lingering ifr MVFR at that time, mainly near the coast, lifting quickly. Scattered clouds this evening before skies clear around 0z with passage of cold front. May see some scattered showers with cold front. Gusty southwest winds this afternoon become westerly in the evening, sustained around 10 kts and gusts in the high teens, with higher values near the coast. Northwest winds tonight through tomorrow between 5 and 10 kts. Extended outlook... PredominatelyVFR through extended. Sub-vfr conditions possible Sunday with return of unsettled weather. Marine Low pressure has shifted away from southeastern north carolina and is now crossing far-eastern nc. This has turned wind directions southwesterly gusts of 25-30 knots are still being reported at some coastal and offshore sites. A cold front moving quickly eastward through the piedmont region of the carolinas should reach the coast early this evening, possibly accompanied by isolated showers. Winds behind this front should turn northwest with 15-20 kt winds overnight occasionally gusting to 25 kt. Somewhat lighter northwest winds are expected to continue through Thursday night as high pressure over the mississippi valley moves east. Seas built quickly in the south winds this morning, reaching 7 feet at the frying pan shoals buoy and 6 feet at the cormp harbor buoy near southport. As winds turn offshore, sea heights should peak soon across the coastal waters and then diminish overnight into Thursday. For this reason i've trimmed back the ending time of the small craft advisory to 10 pm across the south carolina coastal waters, and 6 am Thursday for the north carolina waters. Northerly flow Fri into Sat afternoon will gradually become southerly Sat night into Sun as surface high slips off the coast. Speeds will be around 10 kt Fri through Sat but gradient starts to tighten up Sat night. Low moving from the northeast gulf of mexico into the southeast helps increase southeast winds to a solid 15 kt sat night and Sun before low exits northeast and southwest winds drops closer to 10 kt. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 ft, mainly as a northerly wind wave 4 to 5 seconds, through the end of the week. Sat night into Sun increasing wind speeds build seas near 6 ft on sun with southerly wind wave around 5 seconds becoming dominant. Seas diminish a bit Mon with southerly wind wave period running 5 to 6 seconds. Ilm watches warnings advisories Sc... None. Nc... None. Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for amz254- 256. Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for amz250-252. Near term... Tra short term... Iii long term... Iii aviation... 43 marine... Tra iii

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC	21 mi	53 min	W 7 G 15	77°F	75°F		1001.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	25 mi	27 min	WNW 16 G 21	76°F	75°F		1001.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC	25 mi	25 min			76°F	5 ft
WLON7	26 mi	53 min		77°F	74°F		1002 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	37 mi	27 min	W 23 G 27	75°F			1000.4 hPa
41064	40 mi	27 min	W 23 G 31	76°F	77°F		1001.1 hPa
41159	40 mi	35 min			77°F	9 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
MCAS New River, NC	17 mi	99 min	WSW 12 G 18	10.00 mi	Overcast	75°F	69°F	82%	1000.9 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC	22 mi	42 min	W 12	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	79°F	68°F	69%	1001.9 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC	23 mi	39 min	W 8 G 18	10.00 mi	Overcast	73°F	68°F	84%	1001.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)

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SW12 G18

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.