UPDATE
Fog and or stratus has all but mixed out at this hour leading to partly sunny skies. Forecast trends on track with no significant updates for the mid morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Elongated surface high to the west extending north gradually expands east today. Aloft the 5h trough axis that was overhead Thu lingers just offshore with 5h ridging centered over TX and northern Mexico.
The ridging aloft will slowly drift east, but the trough axis remains close enough that an isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm is possible, mainly across North Carolina. The bulk of the region will remain dry, but rain chances are not zero. The loss of surface based instability in the evening and lack of any support aloft will bring a quick end to any convection that is able to develop in the afternoon. Drier mid-level air and subsidence associated with the 5h ridge start to spread east late tonight, clearing much of the cloud cover out. Decreasing low level moisture and an increase in northeast winds in the boundary layer tonight will prevent fog development in most areas Sat morning. Temperatures will run a little above climo with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Quiet forecast period here. A massive upper ridge centered over Mexico and the Texas Gulf coast stretches eastward into the Southeast through Sunday night. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure near the Ohio River Valley gradually pushes eastward towards the mid-Atlantic. This amounts to a dry forecast throughout the weekend. Highs Saturday in the low-to-mid 80s.

More continental flow sneaks in below 700 mb, which allows highs Sunday to shoot up into the upper 80s across the SC Pee Dee region.
A weak cold front pushes through the mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon, but is too far north to have much of an influence this far south.
Still, it may result in a few extra clouds over southeast NC Sunday afternoon, which may keep the highs in the low-to-mid 80s there.
Some guidance wants to inject just enough moisture in there to squeeze out a shower or two over the NC coastal plain, but I'm holding off on the idea for now.

Lows each night in the mid-to-upper 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast still looks pretty quiet through Tuesday night, with high pressure in control. Highs remain in the mid 80s each day. Lows in the mid 60s.

Things will try to get a bit more interesting Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a frontal system. Looks like a upper low ejects out of the Upper Midwest or Canada and spins through the Great Lakes region or the Ohio River Valley. Forecast guidance is messy with this system, but the current forecast suggests the surface front gets here by Thursday. Changing in the timing is almost a given, since we're several days out. At any rate, modest rain chances on the rise Wednesday and Thursday. Extra cloud cover may limit the highs in the lower 80s, with lows remaining in the mid 60s.

Of course, tropical mischief soon to be brewing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea may throw a wrench into the system. Speaking of messy forecast guidance....not much to say on the trends at the moment.
We'll see how this changes in time. NHC still carries a 40% chance of formation through the next week as the low travels into the southern GOMEX.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A mix of low stratus/fog has developed along the NC coast and gradually spread southward the last few hours, reaching CRE and MYR in the last hour. Have also seen some patchy IFR ceilings/fog develop inland, much of which has been short duration. Any MVFR/IFR will be short lived with widespread VFR developing around 13Z. Can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly coastal NC, but coverage will be rather sparse and continue to kept SHRA/TSRA out of the TAFs.
Northeast winds with speeds under 7 kt. Cannot rule out sporadic MVFR/IFR after 06Z tonight, but increasing dry air and a slight bump in boundary layer wind speeds will limit potential.

Extended Outlook...Mainly dry with VFR conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at times.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Northeast winds continue through tonight as elongated surface high lingers to the west. Gradient remains unchanged today become a little more defined tonight. Winds 10-15 kt for the next 24 hours or so, but on the higher end of the range later tonight. Seas 3-4 ft north of Frying Pan Shoals with seas 2-3 ft south of the Shoals today increasing to 3-4 ft tonight. Seas will be a mix of easterly swell and northeast wind wave, with the northeast wind wave becoming the dominant wave later today.

Saturday through Tuesday...Northeasterly winds at 10-15 kts build in more of an easterly onshore component by Saturday afternoon. Varying wind direction Sunday and Monday, before becoming easterly again by Tuesday. Speeds decrease to around 10 kts at this point. Seas mostly 2-3 ft, with a few 4 ft waves spotted 20 nm from shore Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High astronomical tides and NE flow continue the coastal flood threat through the weekend. WLON7 made it to moderate flooding Thursday, and looks like it will happen again around midday today. Have upgraded to Coastal Flood Watch to a a Coastal Flood Warning for both sides of the lower Cape Fear River. Otherwise, mainly expecting only minor flooding for the other high tide cycles, as well as for the beaches where Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107- 109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.