Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reed Creek, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 640 AM EDT Monday: Widespread cirrus and a develop cu deck will remain over the area through the morning hours with light south to south-southwesterly winds. Overnight lows will run 10-15 degrees above normal. The forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to current observations and latest model trends.

Stubborn ridging continues to set up shop just off the Southeast Coast, while a strong shortwave lifts into the Great Lakes region with a trailing frontal boundary moving in from the west. Pressure gradient tightens in response as wind gusts uptick during the daytime period as deeper mixing takes place in the boundary layer. Moisture advection and compressional warming ahead of the front will allow for afternoon highs to run 10-15 degrees above normal despite subtle height falls. The main frontal zone will shift over the North Carolina mountains by the evening hours with a band of scattered showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms. Deeper forcing lifts west to north of the CFWA as the frontal boundary becomes parallel with the upper flow. As a result, the band of showers and storms will struggle to advance east of the mountains overnight tonight. However, model guidance stall the front near the western fringe of the CFWA. Expect moisture transport and steady WAA to go along with more extensive cloud cover by daybreak Tuesday. This will lead to overnight lows running 10-15 degrees above normal, with some lingering showers over the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 am EDT Monday: A quasi-stationary frontal zone is expected to be draped from NE->SW across the forecast area at the start of the period, with perhaps some showers and a storm or two ongoing Tue morning. WSW flow will support ample moisture transport into the baroclinic zone, while modest destabilization is expected in the vicinity of the boundary during the afternoon. These factors should combine with some ripples in the WSW flow aloft to support expansion of showers and some storms during Tue afternoon, with general likely PoPs forecast from I-85 north, and 40-50% chances south and east of there. Instability is forecast to be insufficient to support a noteworthy severe storm threat. Training of showers and some storms within the boundary-parallel flow regime could support some areas of training cells...but this is expected to do little more than produce locally beneficial rainfall. (Big picture-wise, rainfall through Tue will be unremarkable, with perhaps .25-.50" across the mountains and northern areas...considerably less elsewhere.)

Showers and isolated storms are forecast to linger into Tue night, but with coverage and intensity waning fairly quickly during the evening. The boundary will linger in the vicinity of the forecast area early Wed, but with transitory surface high pressure of 1025+ mb expected to straddle the border between Canada and the northeast Conus by the end of the day, inverted ridging is expected to sharpen a bit down the Eastern Seaboard, which is expected to eventually reinforce the boundary...and possibly set up in-situ cold air damming across our forecast area...although timing of this is very murky at this point. Regardless, showers and a few thunderstorms should again expand in coverage across the area by Wed afternoon, with ensemble and probabilistic guidance justifying likely PoPs across the entire CWA Severe storm chances will again be more or less non-existent in a weakly unstable (and weakly sheared)
environment, but there may be a slight uptick in the potential for locally heavy rainfall with the continued possibility of cells training along the boundary. With the increase in clouds, precip, and the presence of the boundary, max temps will moderate from recent days...but are still forecast to be around 5 degrees above climo across the Piedmont, and around normal across the mountains and the NC foothills. Min temps will remain well above normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 325 am EDT Monday: A baroclinic zone will linger across the region through the end of the week, while deep W/SW flow will maintain more-than-adequate moisture (precipitable water forecast AOA 90% of climatology each day) to produce at least scattered coverage of mainly diurnal showers and storms in the vicinity of this boundary through the end of the work week...with 50-70 PoPs advertised both Thu and Fri afternoons. The global models are in reasonably good agreement that a cold front associated with a significant area of height falls in the vicinity of the Great Lakes will push throughout region on Saturday...possibly enhancing convective chances and also increasing the potential for organized convection as shear parameters improve. At least a brief period of drying may follow for early next week, but there is enough of a signal in ensemble and probabilistic guidance to maintain small PoPs into Sunday. A brief period of in-situ cold air damming is expected on Thursday
which should bring temps near
if not a little below climo during the day. Otherwise, above normal temps are forecast to continue until at least Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected through most the 12Z TAF period. Light south to south-southwesterly winds will continue through daybreak with BKN cirrus overhead. FEW/SCT 050-060 cu still lingering across the area. South to south-southwesterly winds will pick up in speed (10-15 kts) a couple of hours after daybreak ahead of an incoming cold front. Gusts up to 20-25 kts will develop during the afternoon hours before subsiding around sunset.
Cirrus may scatter out during the daytime period, with FEW/SCT 040- 050 cu developing during peak heating. Included a PROB30 for KAVL/KCLT as the cold front inches closer and the associated SHRA/TSRA will move into the North Carolina mountains around 00Z and may reach KAVL between 00Z-06Z, while KCLT extends for out enough to capture the potential. A wind shift will be evident at KAVL as well with the direction switching to a northwesterly component.

Outlook: Periodic convection and restrictions return Monday night and may linger through the middle the week as a frontal boundary stalls across the region. Another cold front will approach the region late in the week keeping convective chances around.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.