Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sneads Ferry, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 PM Sat...Little overall change in the weather pattern from yesterday as expansive mid-level ridging remains in control over the southeastern CONUS and Florida Peninsula this afternoon while a strong closed low continues to dig into the Rio Grande Valley. At the surface, offshore Atlantic high continues to remain in control over the same region.

Warm and moist southwesterly flow will keep conditions mild overnight, further complimented by a steady increase in mid- and high-level clouds. Like last night, winds will remain at a steady 5-10 mph and keep any fog at bay despite a further rise in surface Tds.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 310 PM Sat...Day starts under high pressure, but clouds will continue to increase as a backdoor front, tied to low pressure exiting eastern Canada, gradually approaches the region. There is some modest spread in hi-res guidance on when the front crosses the region, but the most likely time frame is late afternoon to early evening, bringing with it a noticeable cool down for areas along and north of Highway 264. Strong ridging aloft should inhibit any precipitation development, and kept the forecast dry.

Highs not too dissimilar to today's, in the mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. Northern OBX will be a couple degrees lower as the front crosses in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 235 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal warmth this weekend and next week

- Wavy frontal boundary may allow for a more unsettled period next week, especially late Tuesday-Wednesday

Synoptically, the surface and upper level pattern through next week more resembles that of a mid to late summer setup, with weak flow aloft and southwest Atlantic ridging dominating. However, it's a summer time pattern with early spring instability and moisture (often lower than the summer).

As we move into next week, upper ridging is forecast to break down/flatten some, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to develop across the Mid- Atlantic region. Within this flow, a weak frontal boundary is forecast to meander north and south between North Carolina and Virginia. As is to be expected, medium range guidance differs quite a bit on the placement of this front on any given day next week. With the ridge breaking down, temps aloft aren't expected to be quite as warm, which should support a weaker capping inversion. With continued low- level moisture advection off the Atlantic, and a weaker cap, there should be at least a modest increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms at points next week, with the risk likely focused wherever the front resides on that particular day. As mentioned above, we will have summer time deep layer shear (15- 25kt), which doesn't favor much of a severe weather potential. Machine learning guidance also favors a lower risk of severe weather next week. Given the ongoing drought conditions, though, any moisture will be welcomed. While guidance differ on where the front will be each day next week, the most solid signal for convection appears to be in the late Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Sun/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...High confidence in VFR flight cats through the period. This afternoon will continue to feature gusts up to 20 kt in warm southwesterly flow and spotty diurnal cu. Gusts fall off overnight but winds remain steady at 5-10 kt with steadily increasing high clouds. Sunday starts with weaker southwesterly flow as a front begins to sink south, weakening and then veering easterly as front stalls over ENC by nightfall Sunday.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA and sub-VFR risk likely to return next week

By next week, a wavy frontal boundary will meander north and south between North Carolina and Virginia. In vicinity of this front, there will be a risk of SHRA, TSRA, and brief sub VFR conditions at times. The timing of the front, and when the greatest impact to aviation will be, is less certain but still appears to be mid next week.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 315 PM Sat...Tightening thermal gradient is resulting in breezy southwesterly winds across area waters today on the western periphery of sprawling high pressure offshore. Regional observations show winds of 20-25 kt with a few gusts near 30 kt.
Seas are around 3-5 feet, although some isolated 6 footers have been observed across the far outer waters.

Little change was made in the marine forecast today. SCA conditions will continue over soundside waters until sunset, but stronger winds will persist across offshore waters past midnight. Tomorrow, a backdoor cold front is forecast to dip across area waters in the afternoon to early evening hours.
There will be a modest easterly surge behind this boundary of 10-15 kt, but no SCA conditions are anticipated with this boundary. Seas peak at around 5 feet this evening, falling to 2-3 feet by Sun afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Wavy frontal boundary next week with less certainty regarding winds, waves, and thunderstorms

Aforementioned front meanders north to south each day next week, making the wind forecast less certain on any given day.
The front will also carry a modest increase in the risk of thunderstorms, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Winds and seas next week are somewhat certain and will be dependent on where the front is each day, and how strong the gradient is around it on any given day but generally looking at wind speeds of 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft through Wed.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-150-152- 154-156.