Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:29PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:08 AM EDT (07:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:49PMMoonset 1:27PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1007 Pm Edt Sun Oct 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am edt Monday...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 6 seconds in the morning. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 210539
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
139 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will move off the mid atlantic coast as high
pressure builds over the area through Monday night. A cold
front will push through the area late Tuesday night, ushering in
a cooler and drier airmass. Another cold front approaches the
area by the end of week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 940 pm sun... The trailing cold front associated with low
pressure off the DELMARVA had moved through the area early this
evening. Cooler air is now overspreading the region as high
pressure begins to slowly build in from the northwest. Decided
to remove slight chance evening pop based on lack of upstream
wrap around activity to the north. Widespread low clouds
currently blanket the area this evening. The guidance strongly
indicates that the current cloud deck will persist and lower
overnight under the frontal inversion. While winds along and
near the coast will keep the atmosphere mixed, deeper inland,
mainly in locations west of highway 17, winds could decouple
after midnight resulting in patchy fog developing. Lows will be
in the low to mid 50s inland and low 60s coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
As of 320 pm sun... Clouds are expected to slowly erode Monday as
high pressure ridges in from the north, although guidance is
usually too aggressive in doing so. Therefore expect clouds to
linger into Monday afternoon although the Sun should make some
appearances before nightfall. Cloud cover will keep temperatures
down in the low 70s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
As of 245 pm Sunday... Deep moisture will quickly return to
eastern nc Monday night and Tuesday ahead of a cold front, which
will produce another shot of showers and isolated tstms Tuesday
into Tuesday evening. Another front will impact the area late in
the week.

Monday night through Tuesday night... A flow of deeper moisture
returns to eastern nc starting Monday night as precipitable
water values again surge to 2 inches or greater by Tuesday ahead
of oncoming cold front, which should cross the area Tuesday
evening. Per the latest GFS and ecmwf, the highest pops will be
over the western and northern cwa, with less coverage over the
southern coastal zones. The front will tap some weak instability
and will continue with a slight chance of thunder Tuesday
afternoon before more stable air flows in behind the front
Tuesday evening as the precipitation ends.

Wednesday through Thursday night... Dry weather and more
seasonable temperatures are expected behind the front Wednesday
and Thursday. Daytime highs will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with overnight lows in the mid 40s inland to lower 50s
south coast and lower 60s outer banks. Skies will be mostly
clear with no precipitation expected through this period.

Friday through Sunday... Another deepening mid-level trough will
impact the eastern united states for the end of the week into
the weekend. Moisture will once again quickly return Friday with
a cold front to slowly cross the area Saturday. Will continue
previous forecast of high chance pops Friday night and Saturday.

High temperatures will be above normal for this period, mainly
in the low mid 70s.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 130 am mon... Very challenging forecast through the rest
of the morning hours. Satellite imagery reveals stratus
blanketing the entire area, with obs indicating low-end MVFR to
high-end ifr ceilings. Guidance indicates that some breaks in
the stratus could develop through the early morning hours as the
low slides a bit further off the mid-atlantic coast. However,
this could allow for modest radiational cooling, which will
feedback by encouraging the formation of fog and low-end ifr
stratus. Have opted for prevailing MVFR along us hwy 17 at ewn
and oaj, with prevailing ifr inland at iso and pgv through
daybreak.

High pressure building down the coast will prompt low clouds
to scatter out by late this morning, andVFR will prevail
through the day. Increased low level moisture ahead of an
approaching front will bring the threat for fog and low stratus
once again late tonight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 3 pm Sunday... Periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely
Tuesday into Tuesday evening ahead of cold front as scattered to
numerous showers are expected with perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms. Dry high pressure will build behind the front
withVFR conditions under clear skies expected Wednesday and
Thursday, before moisture returns ahead of the next front for
Friday, with sub-vfr conditions possibly developing. As usual,
some late night early morning fog may form producing sub-VFR
conditions for a few hours each morning.

Marine
Short term through tonight and Monday ...

as of 940 pm sun... The cold front has moved through the waters
early this evening, resulting in winds shifting to the NW and
increasing to 20-25 kt with higher gusts to 30 kt possible. Mon
winds will veer to the N and decrease to 10-15 kt in the
afternoon as high pressure builds over the waters. Seas have
subsided to 5-8 ft this evening, but the stronger NW flow will
help to keep seas elevated into mon. Will continue the small
craft advisories into Monday. Seas are expected to subside below
6 feet by late Monday night across all waters.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 305 pm Sunday... Rough seas will persist into early Monday
evening before subsiding. SW winds are expected Tuesday ahead
of an oncoming cold front that will move offshore Tuesday
evening. Winds may increase to 15-20 knots just ahead and just
behind the front. Winds on Wednesday behind the front will be
nw N 10-15 knots before veering to the NE E Thursday. Ahead of
yet another cold front, SE S winds are expected at 10-15 knots
on Friday. Seas should stay in the 2-5 foot range beyond Monday
night until increasing to 4-6 feet ahead of the next front
Friday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for ncz203-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for amz135-
158.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
amz131-230-231.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for amz150-152-154.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for amz156.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme ms
short term... Ms
long term... Ctc
aviation... Jme ctc ms cb
marine... Jme ctc ms
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi60 min NNW 21 G 29 65°F 77°F1013.2 hPa
41159 31 mi38 min 76°F6 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi50 min N 6 G 8.9 63°F 72°F1013.8 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi60 min N 14 G 18 64°F 73°F1014 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi28 min 73°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi60 min NNW 19 G 27 64°F 1012.5 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi50 min NNW 11 G 15
WLON7 39 mi50 min 63°F 71°F1014.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi68 min NW 19 G 22 61°F 1013.4 hPa (+1.4)61°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi72 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast62°F55°F80%1014.4 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi71 minVar 610.00 miOvercast62°F57°F84%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E7E6E6E5SE7E8E7E8E7E7E7SE7E11E7SE10
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2 days ago--W6----W4NW7N9N8N6N5N94NE9
G16
NW6NW5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:25 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 01:54 PM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.92.82.521.40.90.60.711.62.333.43.53.32.92.21.510.60.60.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.