Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 8:51 PM   Moonset 6:07 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 311 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 5 seconds and sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Fri - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Sun night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

AMZ100 311 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Reinforcing northeasterly surge of winds impacts area waters this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds into the area from the northeast. Sca conditions continue soundside through tonight, while seas remain elevated north of cape hatteras into early Sat morning. Benign coastal conditions likely through the rest of the period.

FXUS62 KMHX 251956 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 356 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will gradually build into the Carolinas from the northeast tonight, and will remain in control before sliding offshore this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 400 PM Thu...Eastern NC sits under broad upper level troughing this afternoon in an increasingly amplified pattern as ridging gradually builds over the central plains and makes its way towards the eastern CONUS tonight into tomorrow morning. A weak embedded s/w currently over the western Great Lakes is expected to dive across the mid-Atlantic early Fri morning with little fanfare. At the surface, cold front remains well offshore but a reinforcing surge of northeasterly winds is pushing across the northern Outer Banks and will continue to push southwest through the tonight.

Near term focus is the ongoing low (15-20%) potential for a few isolated showers, predominantly across the coastal plain where sound and sea breeze circulations will converge with the aforementioned northeasterly surge. HRRR has remained insistent on development across this area for the past several runs, and 12z hi-res suite jumped onboard increasing confidence. Impacts will be minimal...with such dry air aloft activity will be brief and offer little more than a couple hundredths of an inch of rain.

For tonight, confidence is increased in widespread low stratus encroaching inland from the coast as onshore easterly flow continues to pool moisture under the frontal inversion. Almost all hi-res guidance shows low overcast conditions spreading at least as far west as Highway 17, but about half the guidance brings it across the coastal plain as well. Steady northeasterly winds at around 5-10 mph (higher along the coast) will keep any fog at bay. Did raise temperatures from the previous forecast given insulating effect of low clouds and continuous low-level mixing from the winds, favoring lows in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
As of 400 PM Thu...Low stratus will gradually break up tomorrow morning with increased heating, with the first peaks of sky likely around 9 am and rapidly giving way to mostly sunny conditions while high pressure remains in control. With mid- level ridge and associated subsidence shifting overhead no precipitation is anticipated tomorrow allowing for a pleasant mid-spring day. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler than today, in the low to mid 70s inland but low to mid 60s along the Outer Banks and immediate coastal areas.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM Thursday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating the region.

High pressure will remain near the eastern seaboard through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with higher precip chances expected in farther north than eastern NC.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the long term (mid-upper 80s inland), aided by SW flow with the surface high to our east over the Western Atlantic Ocean.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through 18Z Fri/...
As of 150 PM Thur...VFR conditions continue this afternoon under as diurnal cu fields quickly develop in northeasterly flow behind a cold front. Hi-res guidance is pointing to a few very isolated showers across the coastal plain late this afternoon into evening as a reinforcing backdoor surface boundary pushes across the region, but these will quickly fall apart by sunset.
Winds behind the boundary may briefly gust up to 15 kt for an hour or two.

Beyond today, guidance continues to hammer the development of widespread low stratus as onshore flow pools moisture under a strong frontal inversion. Timing has changed little from the previous forecast, with MVFR gradually spreading from east to west shortly after 00z and uninterrupted IFR from 06-07z until around 14z when diurnal processes begin to break up the stratus deck. VFR returns area wide by mid-morning Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will persist through Monday with high pressure prevails over the region.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...Advertised northeasterly surge this afternoon is a bit stronger than anticipated this afternoon with gusts already exceeding 25 kt over soundside waters and the offshore waters north of Cape Hatteras. Seas across the far northern waters are already starting to build in excess of 4 feet, while across Raleigh and Onslow Bays they remain at an average 3-4 feet.

SCA conditions will continue through tonight as northeasterly surge works its way across the waters. Latest guidance has the strongest winds coming down a bit quicker soundside, ending just before midnight, but still remaining at 20+ kt through tomorrow as northeast to easterly flow remains in place. Did extend the the SCA across the offshore waters north of Ocracoke Inlet as local wave guidance tends to diminish seas too quickly in northeasterly flow regimes.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 410 AM Thursday...Surface high pressure over the Northeastern U.S. will nose south over the waters on Friday as a weak boundary remains south of the area. The ridge will shift off the coast on Saturday allowing flow to become more easterly, then eventually southeasterly by Sunday morning. A new surface ridge will develop across the Southeastern states and shift off the Carolina coast by Sunday afternoon, shifting winds southwesterly and persisting SW through Tuesday.

NW winds will diminish below SCA levels Friday, though seas will linger at or above 6 ft through much of the day for the coastal waters. May see SCAs persist until Friday evening for the central coastal waters, Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet. Winds and seas subside below SCA levels for the weekend into early next week with generally good boating conditions anticipated.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135-156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.

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New River Inlet
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Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:21 AM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:34 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
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