Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 5:06 AM EDT (09:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:10PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 415 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 170809
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
409 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure offshore with a weak trough of low pressure to the
west will continue through early next week. A front will approach
and stall near the area by the middle of next week.

Near term through today
As of 315 am Wednesday... Upper ridging crests over the area this
morning then will see gradual height falls as shortwave energy
associated with the remnants of barry slowly approaches from the
west. The surface pattern remains unchanged with high pressure
centered offshore and a lee trough across the piedmont although
gradients tighten some this afternoon bringing moderate
southerly winds. The airmass remains very moist and unstable
with pw values around 2 inches and MUCAPE peaking around
3000-4000 j kg. Expect isol to sct convection along the sea
breeze this afternoon, though most guidance shows less coverage
than yesterday. Bulk shear increases to around 20 kt this
afternoon and isol storms could produce strong downburst winds,
similar to yesterday. The continuing story remain the heat and
expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland to lower 90s coast,
and with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s heat indices will
peak around 105-110 this afternoon and will have another day
with a heat advisory.

Short term tonight
As of 330 am Wednesday... Convection will dissipate through the
evening with loss of surface heating but cannot rule out an iso
shower trough the overnight as shortwave energy slides east of
the appalachians, however most guidance keeps conditions dry.

Very sultry conditions with lows in the mid to upper 70s inland
to lower 80s coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 330 am Wednesday... The long term period will be
characterized by mainly zonal upper level flow across the
northern CONUS with the southern u.S. Stuck under a broad ridge
through the end of the week, even with a shortwave associated
with the remnants of barry pushing offshore at the beginning of
the period. By the beginning of next week, a deepening low over
the gulf of alaska will help promote a more amplified pattern
across the CONUS with strong ridging over the west and a
deepening trough over the east. The resultant impacts to eastern
nc weather is a typical summer surface pattern into early next
week with high pressure over the western atlantic and a trough
of low pressure inland. By the end of the period, the more
pronounced upper troughing will help push a front into the
region and increase precip coverage across the region.

Thursday and Friday... The remnants of TC barry are progged to
become absorbed into mid-level westerlies as it lifts into the
ohio river valley today with the mid-level circulation
opening into a wave and pushing across the east coast Thursday
with the weakening surface low lifting north of the area along a
front. Continued unstable conditions across the area with an
increase in moisture and better cyclonic flow Thu thu night should
result in a better chance for showers and storms across the
area. Drier mid-level air should work in as the shortwave
exits Friday. Kept chance pops for Thursday but lowered pops
Friday as the shortwave energy departs. Continued hot and very
humid with highs above average in the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices around 105 or slightly higher. Oppressively high dew
points will keep lows sultry in the upper 70s, and would not be
surprised to see some spots fail to break 80.

Saturday and Sunday... Continued hot and very humid with the
hottest temperatures likely for Saturday. Thicknesses increase
with 850 mb temps reaching 20+ c across eastern nc. As the
upper level trough begins to amplify heights will fall, but
temperatures will be very similar for the weekend remaining
above average in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points remain high
and heat indices will range 105 to 110. Scattered convection is
possible along the seabreeze each day but with the ridge firmly
in control coverage will be limited. Capping pops at 30% for the
period.

Monday and Tuesday... A break in the heat is finally in sight as
the upper level trough amplifies, dropping heights across the
region and helping to usher a front south across the mid-
atlantic and into the carolinas by mid-week, although the timing
of this front has its typical spread this far out. Regardless,
the front will be accompanied with deep moisture and a
pronounced mid-level shortwave. Due to timing differences will
cap pops at chance for now. It should be noted that the front is
expected to stall with plenty of moisture to work with and
multiple subtle lobes of mid-level energy riding along the
boundary. Thus some respectable rainfall totals are possible,
although the question of where the front stalls is still up in
the air. Behind the front highs will struggle to crack 90, and
fall even farther by the middle of the week.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 230 am Wednesday... PredVFR expected through the taf
period. A thick shield of high clouds and light southerly winds
continuing has so far prevented fog development despite only
0-2 degree dewpoint depressions. However, we are seeing the high
clouds thin and cannot rule out patchy light fog develop before
daybreak in areas where winds decouple. Isol to sct convection
this afternoon could also bring brief periods of sub-vfr
conditions. Mid-high clouds and light SW winds expected to limit
fog development again tonight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 330 am Wednesday... Typical summertime pattern this period
with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure
inland, with mainly scattered showers and storms Thu and fri,
and more isolated coverage Sat and sun. Patchy fog or stratus
will be possible early each morning, esp. In areas that receive
rain.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 345 am Wednesday... High pressure will remain centered
offshore with a trough of low pressure across the piedmont.

Gradients will tighten through the day and remain tight tonight
as low pressure assoc with the remnants of barry lift well
north of the area. S to SW winds around 5-15 kt this morning
increase to 10-20 kt with higher gusts this afternoon and
tonight. Seas around 2-3 ft this morning build to 3-5 ft this
afternoon and tonight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 330 am Wednesday... The pressure gradient will be tightening
through late week as the inland surface trough strengthens and the
pressure gradient tightens. This will result in moderate SW flow
15-20 kt Thu and persisting into Friday night. This will aid in seas
building to 3-5 feet with 6 foot seas possibly in the outer central
waters. The gradient relaxes somewhat over the weekend but SW winds are
still expected to remain 10-20 knots, but seas will fall to around 3-4
feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
203>205.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Ms
aviation... Sk ms
marine... Sk ms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi58 min W 9.7 G 14 84°F 85°F1017.7 hPa
41159 31 mi36 min 84°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 78°F1017.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi58 min SW 7.8 G 12 81°F 82°F1018.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi26 min 82°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi58 min W 9.7 G 16 82°F 84°F1018.7 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi48 min SW 5.1 G 7 83°F 87°F1019.3 hPa
WLON7 39 mi54 min 80°F 86°F1018.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi66 min SW 6 G 8 83°F 1018.8 hPa (-0.8)77°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi70 minS 310.00 miFair80°F77°F90%1018.5 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi69 minSW 610.00 miFair83°F79°F88%1019 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3S33S3SE7S4SE9SE12S13S13
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1 day agoCalmCalmW3CalmSE34E5SE7SE7S6S8S10S11S7S3CalmSE5S3SW3S3S3S3S3Calm
2 days agoW4W7W4W4CalmCalm3E6SE5SW4SW7S7S6S7S4SE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Wed -- 02:52 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:51 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:09 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.70.200.30.91.62.32.72.92.62.11.40.70.20.10.411.82.63.23.43.32.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.