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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 214 Pm Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 7 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..From point mugu to santa Monica and S of palos verdes, ne winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 25 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Elsewhere, ne winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Sat..From point mugu to santa Monica, ne winds 25 to 35 kt. Elsewhere, ne winds 15 to 25 kt becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Sat night..From point mugu to santa Monica, ne winds 20 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 214 Pm Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 22z or 2 pm pst, a 1029 mb high was located 700 nm W of point conception, and a 1009 mb low was over arizona. Gusty N to nw winds and hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters through Friday, then gusty santa ana winds will affect nearshore waters Friday night through Saturday.

FXUS66 KSGX 072123 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 123 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A trough moving through the bring strong westerly winds to the mountains and deserts today and tonight. Offshore flow will quickly develop Friday, producing Santa Ana winds, strongest early Saturday, especially in foothills and adjacent valleys. This will also lead to widespread elevated and locally critical fire weather conditions. The offshore flow eases into early next week while high pressure aloft brings warmer weather. Dry weather will continue next week.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Cooler conditions prevail today with mostly clear skies following some extensive low-level cloud cover owing to a deep marine layer this morning. Enhanced onshore flow also continues today thanks to a 500mb shortwave moving through the Pacific Northwest. Targeted Wind Advisories are in effect for portions of the mountains and deserts in Riverside and San Diego counties, running through 4 AM PST Friday. Peak wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph look to occur, with localized gusts to 60 mph occurring over ridgelines, through wind- prone canyons, and below mountain passes, particularly the San Gorgonio Pass.

The 500mb shortwave will then dig into the Great Basin and Central Rockies region, allowing for cold air to be ushered in from north due to northerly flow. This will kick off yet another Santa Ana wind event lasting through this weekend. Northeast winds look to begin on Friday afternoon, while the more easterly winds that favor San Diego County beginning Friday night. Winds from both directions look to peak in strength late Friday Night into Saturday morning, with Santa Ana winds remaining elevated through Sunday morning. This Santa Ana event looks to be more moderate in strength than recent rounds, with numerous wind gusts reaching or exceeding 60 mph, and will more than likely require additional Wind Advisories through Saturday night. There will also be widespread elevated fire weather conditions across much of Southern California on Saturday, with the highest potential for critical fire weather conditions occurring in the Inland Empire where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 10 AM Saturday to 12 PM Sunday. See the Fire Weather section below for more details.

Santa Ana winds will then steadily weaken on Sunday as the upper ridge flattens out and gives way to 500mb troughing, which looks to steadily evolve into a cutoff low. This will favor cooling on Monday after a very anomalously warm day on Sunday owing to this weekend’s Santa Anas. From Tuesday onward, considerable uncertainty is introduced to the forecast thanks to the cutoff upper level low entering the region. Where this low ultimately settles will be the difference between weak offshore flow (if the low settles over California) and another notable Santa Ana event (if the low were to settle over Arizona). Confidence is high in there being persistent offshore winds next week due to large- scale ridging over the western US, but the overall strength of them remains very much in question due to the spread in ensemble 500mb height guidance as well as wind speed guidance.

AVIATION
072100Z
Coast/Valleys
Most low clouds have scattered out of the coastal regions this afternoon, though VCTY KSAN will have the potential to clear further later this afternoon. Confidence is moderate on these clouds reforming after 01Z, pushing ashore up to 15 miles inland overnight with bases 2000-2500 ft MSL. Timing on clearing is moderate where most areas will scatter between 10-13Z.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear through this evening and Friday. W- NW winds with sfc gusts 20-35 kt mainly from the mountain crests east through the desert slopes and east of passes through Thu night, with local stronger gusts 40-50 kt late afternoon/evening. Winds will turn from the north after 12Z Friday for the foothills around the Inland Empire, expanding southward and increasing throughout the day on Friday.

MARINE
Northwest winds gusting 20 to 25 knots will develop later this afternoon through the night, easing by Friday morning over the outer coastal waters. Combined seas approaching 10 feet and choppy conditions west and south of San Clemente Island. Isolated northeast wind gusts to 20 knots, highest chance across northern San Diego County coast, will occur Friday night and Saturday morning.

BEACHES
A west northwest swell with a period of 16 seconds this evening lowering to 14 seconds by late Thursday and heights 3-6 feet will bring elevated surf through early Friday. Wave heights will range from 3-6 feet for most areas with local sets to 8 feet in southern San Diego County.

FIRE WEATHER
Onshore flow will strengthen today, as desert slopes and desert locations see gusty west winds, highest for mountain and desert locations in San Diego and Riverside Counties where gusts near 40 to locally 60 mph will occur below passes and through wind-prone canyons. This will spread cooling and higher coastal humidity inland through tonight.

Winds will turn offshore Friday, first in northern areas pushing southward throughout the day and into the evening. Santa Ana winds will be at their strongest early Saturday morning, when coastal slopes of the mountains will get highest winds to 50 to 60 mph, locally near 70 mph for areas below mountain passes, through wind-prone canyons, and over ridgelines. Humidity values lower to near 20 percent Friday, lowering to near 10 to 15 percent Saturday morning, and as low as 7 to 10 percent on Sunday.
Fire weather conditions will approach or exceed critical levels Saturday afternoon, mainly in the Inland Empire with widespread elevated conditions elsewhere. A Fire Weather Watch has accordingly been issued from 10 AM Saturday to 12 PM Sunday.
Weaker offshore winds will continue into Sunday with warmer weather but still very dry. Periods of weaker offshore flow will continue at times next week.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys -The Inland Empire.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Friday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Thu -- 01:27 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:30 AM PST     4.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:23 PM PST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:48 PM PST     2.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Los Patos (highway bridge), California, Tide feet

Long Beach
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Thu -- 01:28 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 AM PST     4.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM PST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:52 PM PST     3.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:21 PM PST     1.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Beach, Inner Harbor, California, Tide feet

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