Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Burgaw, NC

UPDATE
Deep convection continues to develop/propagate toward the available instability...westward seemingly determined to use all of it up. Overall pops were increased based really on radar imagery as the activity should diminish in the next few hours.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A moderately unstable airmass will remain in place through the near term. Afternoon convection will produce brief heavy downpours into early evening before loss of heating allows things to settle down.
Expect decreasing activity from south to north after 00Z tonight, with PoPs falling below 15% after 03-06Z. Small perturbations in SW flow aloft will aid in convective initiation beginning early Saturday, increasing in coverage as daytime heating gets underway.
Will continue with a range of generally 60-80% PoPs Saturday, perhaps a little lower along the coast as the sea breeze pushes inland
Lows tonight will be held above climo
mainly low-mid 70s...while highs Saturday should be capped in the mid 80s given numerous showers/tstms.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather will continue through the period, with the afternoon hours featuring the most radar returns. With such high PW values in place only weak forcing will be needed to produce fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. That forcing will come in the form of copious mesoscale boundaries as well as a weakening shortwave passing by to our north. What such a pattern does though is make highlighting any particular area for seeing precipitation difficult. Timing-wise though the coastal locales should see POPs first as the seabreeze activates quickly with such a warm morning start. Inland locales will then see POPs ramp up in the afternoon as instability develops.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Thunderstorm coverage to remain elevated on Monday with high PW values and weak steering flow still in place. Things should start to change on Tuesday as the mid level ridge just east of FL starts to poke a ridge axis into the SE US. This weak subsidence paired with the fact that it will start to channel shortwave energy further north will lead to a decrease in rainfall coverage, though it will still be above normal due to the deep layer moisture. As this continues into Wednesday a more normal distribution/coverage of storms appears likely while afternoon temperatures creep up a degree or two each day.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Persistence forecast in place for aviation concerns the next 24 hours. This calls for tenuous VFR conditions initially dropping to IFR and or below inland by early Saturday morning. For now coastal sites appear to remain VFR but trends in time will need to be monitored. Convection fires again late Saturday morning into the early afternoon with all sites fair game.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to intermittent thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday.

MARINE
Through Saturday...SSW winds on the order of 15 kts will persist tonight and Saturday as Bermuda high pressure remains in place.
Showers and thunderstorms should remain isolated across the waters through the evening hours, becoming a little more prevalent late tonight and through Saturday. Seas will be generally 3 ft, with 4 footers in the outer waters and in the vicinity of Frying Pan Shoals.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Bermuda high pressure will keep wind direction fairly unchanging and from the SW and in the 10-15kt range through about Tuesday. An inland surface trough may add a few kt of wind speed thereafter. Wave bulletins show seas remaining in the 3-4 ft range with a 5 second wind wave the more dominant compared to the 8-9 second SE swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.