Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Swansboro, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 215 PM Wednesday...A cold front currently stretching from Delaware southwest to northern Georgia is progressing southeast through NC this afternoon and should reach Eastern NC later this evening. Southerly low-mid level flow ahead of the front should has built PWATs to 1.8" based on SPC mesoanalyses. The strongest forcing aloft is expected to remain well north of ENC. However, the combination of increasing moisture, weak instability, and modest low-level convergence should allow a broken band of showers and thunderstorms to develop and progress southeast through ENC through the evening hours. Latest radar imagery highlights several features, a few more convective than others over the HWY 264 area. Most convection is weak showery, with no lightning. These showers/isolated thunderstorms will persist this afternoon ahead of the front, then push off the coast by 00-02Z/8-10PM EDT.

Once the front moves off the coast, northeasterly winds will surge down the coast from north to south overnight, inhibiting any fog or low stratus formation. Temps will be much cooler tonight with lows in the low/mid 50s inland to upper 50s/lower 60s along the coast and OBX.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 220 PM Wednesday...Thursday will begin our prolonged northeasterly wind event for Eastern NC. Strong high pressure (1034 mb) will move from the Great Lakes towards the Mid- Atlantic states on Thursday while the surface front will push off the NC/SC coast. Gusty NE winds will develop due to the gradient between these two features, with gusts upwards of 40 mph for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret county. Skies will become mostly sunny early for inland locations, but cloudier conditions may persist closer to the coast. High temperatures on Thursday will build into the low to mid 70s areawide.



LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 4 AM Wed...

Thursday...Thursday night will shape up to be the coolest night of the fall thus far, with favored cool spots away from the coast potentially reaching around 50. Much warmer on the beaches in vicinity of the still-warm waters, with lows in the low/mid 60s.

Friday..Transition day between high pres to the north and developing low off the FL coast with the cold front stalled to the south. Northeast breezes will slacken some, with temps similar to Thu as inc cloud cover keeps max T's in the 70s.
Milder temps Fri night with inc cloud cover, with lows in the upper 50s interior to mid 60s coast.

Saturday through Tuesday...Impactful coastal storm expected this weekend into early next week. The aforementioned low off FL will lift northwards and be positioned off the Carolina coast this weekend. Warm waters and lack of steering flow may allow the coastal low to sit over warm offshore waters and strengthen rapidly. While confidence is high in the formation of a coastal storm off the coast, the strength, exact location, and timing impacts are still up in the air. See Coastal Flooding section for possible impact scenarios from this coastal storm.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Thursday/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Isolated TSRA possible through early evening

- Wind shift with gusty N/NE winds behind a front this evening

Surface observations show a cold front progressing quickly southeast across NC this afternoon, and should push through the Eastern NC terminals by 21z-03z timeframe, then quickly offshore by 06z tonight. SCT to BKN mid level clouds will persist with mostly VFR ceilings. A band of SHRA and isolated TSRA still appears possible into the evening, although recent guidance continues to suggest mostly rain showers. A notable northerly wind shift, with gusty winds, will accompany the cold front as it moves through ENC this evening/overnight. Wind gusts of 20-25kt appear likely for at least a couple of hours along and behind the front. A brief period of MVFR CIGs may develop as well, although recent guidance has also pulled back some on this potential. Thursday will be VFR with gusty northerly winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wed...Behind the front, gusty NE winds are expected Thursday as high pressure builds in to the Northeast. This weekend, a coastal low is likely to develop and move into the ENC coastal waters, bringing gusty winds and periods of rain, heavy at times, to ENC. This will bring poor flying conditions with sub VFR and strong winds likely.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Elevated winds and seas develop behind a cold front this evening

- Gale Force Winds for the coastal waters south of Ocracoke

Latest surface and buoy data indicate SSW winds 5-15 kt across the waters, with the cold front starting to creep into the northern waters where the winds are beginning to shift westerly at Duck, NC. South winds are expected to continue through early evening, then a cold front will move quickly south through the NC waters, with a sharp north to northeast wind shift. In the wake of the wind shift, a period of 20-30kt NE winds is expected, with higher gusts of 25-35kt for the southern coastal waters on Thursday. For the coastal waters, this will lead to seas building to 5-8 ft at 5-7 seconds. High pressure begins to build south over the waters on Thursday, leading to northeasterly winds persisting through the short term.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wed...Strong SCA winds on Thu, with a period of gales possible for the southern waters. Therefore, a gale watch has been issued for the waters from Ocracoke to Surf City Thu afternoon through late Thu night. A lull in the gusty winds expected on Friday, before a coastal storm organizes off Florida and then strengthens as it moves towards ENC this weekend.
Winds and seas are expected to deteriorate through the day Saturday as the low approaches, with widespread gales expected along with very high seas of 12-15 ft or higher. Hazardous marine conditions will likely continue into early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 1040 AM Wednesday...
King Tides and gusty NE winds behind a cold front on Thursday will bring mainly minor coastal flood impacts to both oceanside and soundside communities. Vulnerable areas on Hatteras and Ocracoke Island may experience ocean overwash during times of high tide where dune structures are weakened. The winds subside a bit on Friday as high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic.
Coastal flood products remain in effect.

Confidence is high that low pressure will organize off the east coast of FL and strengthen as it moves north northeastwards and off the Carolina coast by Saturday. This will bring a rapid increase in winds and high waves on Saturday, with moderate to locally major coastal flooding impacts developing. There is a possibility that the low may stall just off or over the NC coast on Sunday, and therefore high uncertainty in wind direction and speed for the second half of the weekend into early next week. The eventual track/intensity of the coastal low will dictate the severity, extent, and locations of oceanside and sound side flooding.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Monday morning for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-150-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ136.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ137.
Gale Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156- 158.