Swansboro, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Swansboro, NC

June 18, 2024 5:54 PM EDT (21:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 4:25 PM   Moonset 2:05 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 347 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

Wed - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

Wed night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.

Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.

Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.

Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

Sun night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 347 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure dominates through tomorrow, although swell from a distant tropical wave will result in gradually deteoriorating offshore conditions by week's end.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 181945 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 345 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure dominates through Thursday resulting in dry and warm conditions. Coastal troughing may bring some showers to the region late in the week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 330 PM Tue...Expansive mid-level ridge remains in place over much of the eastern seaboard as high pressure, anchored several hundred miles offshore, continues to extend southwestward over much of the southeastern CONUS. Highs today are nearly identical to yesterday, but with persistent easterly flow low-level moisture is marginally deeper.

Another quiet evening is in store as high and ridge remain in place. Low-level moisture will continue to slowly increase overnight with persistent onshore flow, and would not be surprised to see some instances of stratus encroaching inland overnight. Lows tonight will still make a run into the lower 60s across the inner coastal plain, but along the coast 70s will be more prevalent.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
As of 345 PM Tue...Strongest part of the ridging will shift northward into the mid-Atlantic and New England, and thicknesses will modestly fall tomorrow in response. This change will do little to affect apparent weather, with another day of mainly dry weather as highs touch the mid to upper 80s with a few spotty 90 readings. With the weakness in the ridge, guidance is a bit more excited about coastal showers grazing the coast but think forcing and ample subsidence will keep activity subdued.
Kept mentionable PoPs out of the forecast this afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

- Watching the Southwest Atlantic through late-week

- Building heat and humidity likely (60-80% chance) this weekend into next week

- Increased storminess possible (30-50% chance) by next week

Synoptic Summary: An impressive mid-upper level ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the Eastern U.S. through the end of the week.
Over the weekend and into next week, the ridge is forecast to break down, or shift west, with upper level troughing returning to the Eastern U.S. At the SFC, a strong area of high pressure is forecast to remain over the Carolinas through mid-week. The high is then forecast to shift offshore by the weekend, with lee-troughing developing. A frontal boundary may try to sneak south into ENC early next week.

Wednesday-Thursday: Despite impressive ridging at the surface and aloft, an area of relatively lower low-level thicknesses are forecast to remain in place within the easterly onshore flow across the Carolinas through mid-week. This should keep temps close to normal, locally, with the more impressive heat remaining focused to our north across the Mid-Atlantic and New England. A moistening easterly flow may support coastal shower activity moving west off the Atlantic, especially Wednesday, but outside of weak WAA, there isn't much forcing, and I expect most areas will remain dry.

Friday-Saturday: Medium range guidance begin to differ during this time, especially with the evolution of the above-mentioned mid-upper level ridge. In general, the ridge is forecast to weaken, and potentially shift west. Initially, the ridge overhead should keep the tropical wave in the SW Atlantic on a westerly path through mid- week. Then, late in the week, the evolution of the ridge will help determine where the wave goes from there. The general consensus among deterministic and ensemble guidance has been a more southerly track with the wave, and weaker with any surface reflection. Of note, the westward-shifting ridge may actually slow the forward progress of the wave as it approaches the Southeast U.S. coast. Some ensemble members even bring what's left of the wave north as a weakness develops within the broader ridge aloft. The key message here is that we'll still keep an eye on the SW Atlantic, but guidance is trending towards something less noteworthy for now.

What is more certain during this time is the development of a moistening return flow as SFC high pressure shifts offshore. This is forecast to occur regardless of what happens with the above mentioned wave. Despite the moistening low-levels, a lack of appreciable forcing should keep the chance of showers/storms low.
With the increasing moisture will come increasing humidity, with a "feels like" temp approaching 100 degrees by Saturday.

Sunday-Tuesday: Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are showing a consistent signal for above normal temperatures and an increased risk of heat-related impacts thanks to continued southerly flow and increasing low-level thicknesses. During this period, the "feels like" temperature is forecast to reach 100-105 degrees, especially Sunday and Monday.

By Monday and Tuesday, southwesterly flow aloft tapping into a very moist pool of Gulf of Mexico moisture should support PWATs climbing back above 2". At minimum, the forecast pattern will favor a more active seabreeze. Additionally, though, there may be some added support from a shortwave, or two, and a frontal boundary trying to drop south into the area. In light of all of this, ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for increased storminess early next week which will be welcomed given the very dry pattern of late. This also appears to be the next appreciable chance of wetting rainfall.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Wed/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...Relatively quiet flying day unfolding across the region this afternoon with Atlantic high pressure still remaining firmly in control over ENC. Healthy cu field is in place area wide with generally easterly winds, gusting up to 15 kt at times along coastal areas.

Winds calm overnight, but with increased low-level moisture advection there will be a risk for some lower stratus drifting onshore, particularly for EWN/OAJ. Confidence is moderate (30-40%) in MVFR cigs during the pre-dawn hours, and stepped the forecast in that direction for the 18z TAFs to give future shifts a chance to reanalyze conditions.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the work week, with minimal impacts to aviation expected. By the weekend, increasingly gusty southwest winds are likely, along with at least a modest increase in the risk of SHRA and TSRA.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 345 Tues...Quiet boating conditions remain in place as high pressure, anchored several hundred miles offshore, remains anchored in place. Regional observations show easterly winds of 10-15 kt with seas still around 3-4 feet. Pattern will change little tomorrow and expect similar conditions to carry into Wednesday evening. Seas will begin to build across outer waters late in the period as swell with a distant tropical wave impacts the southeast coast.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

- Elevated seas possible mid-week (30-50% chance)

- Elevated wind and seas possible this weekend (40-60% chance)

Through mid-week, we'll be keeping an eye on a weak tropical wave moving west through the Southwest Atlantic. Guidance has trended weaker and further south with this wave, which may tend to keep seas lower than previously forecast. However, there's still at least some potential for 6ft seas across portions of the central and southern waters Wednesday and Thursday. Given the lower chance, and lower confidence, no marine headlines are planned at this time. Otherwise, good boating conditions continue with a continued easterly wind of 5- 15kt through Thursday. Winds become southerly late in the week and over the weekend, while also building to 10-20kt. A period of 25kt winds appears possible over the weekend. Seas will begin to build as well, providing another opportunity for 6ft seas.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 3:30 AM Tue...A dry airmass will be in place through mid week, with minimum RH in the 30s and 40s percent, especially away from the coast. This will overlap with breezy E winds at times, and is noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
41064 30 mi106 minE 14G18 79°F 80°F30.2470°F
41159 30 mi58 min 80°F4 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi60 minE 8G13 80°F 80°F30.22
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi54 minE 13G16 78°F 30.24
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi60 minE 16G19 78°F 82°F30.22
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi106 minE 14G18 78°F 79°F30.2364°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi58 min 79°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi106 minE 14G19 79°F 79°F30.2468°F
MBNN7 43 mi84 minE 11G16 80°F 30.2069°F
WLON7 46 mi60 min 82°F 82°F30.20
MBIN7 49 mi84 minESE 14G18 79°F 30.2169°F


Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC 12 sm57 minESE 128 smClear82°F63°F51%30.23
KNCA NEW RIVER MCAS /H/ /MCCUTCHEON FLD/,NC 14 sm58 minESE 15G2210 smClear82°F64°F55%30.21
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Wind History graph: NJM
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Tide / Current for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
   
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Bogue Inlet
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Tue -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:18 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:51 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.9
3
am
1.3
4
am
1.7
5
am
1.8
6
am
1.8
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.3
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.3
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
2
5
pm
2.3
6
pm
2.4
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
1.9
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
0.5


Tide / Current for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Tue -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:20 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:54 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.7
2
am
1.2
3
am
1.7
4
am
2.2
5
am
2.5
6
am
2.5
7
am
2.2
8
am
1.7
9
am
1.1
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.4
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
1.4
3
pm
2.1
4
pm
2.7
5
pm
3.1
6
pm
3.3
7
pm
3.1
8
pm
2.6
9
pm
1.9
10
pm
1.2
11
pm
0.7


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Morehead City, NC,




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