Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:38PM Monday October 14, 2019 9:42 PM EDT (01:42 UTC) Moonrise 6:25PMMoonset 6:44AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 751 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tue night..E winds around 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. NEar shore, seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 10 seconds in the morning. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough in the afternoon. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 150007
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
807 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure will
quickly pass through the area on Tuesday. Low pressure will move
up the east coast Wednesday, and push a cold front offshore
Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will build in late week
and into next weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 730 pm mon... No significant changes with the early
evening update, radiational cooling has happened fairly rapidly
inland with clear skies and calm conditions, but should slow as
dewpoint depressions approach zero by late evening. The fog
forecast is challenging for tonight as ridging down the coast
could bring about some very light flow and inhibit fog formation
late. However, if we remain decoupled, patchy fog will be
possible for several hours around sunrise, especially along and
west of us hwy 17.

Previous discussion... Very quiet conditions tonight as high
pres builds in from the nw. With lowering dewpts and light to
calm winds inland expect excellent radiational cooling with
cooler inland spots reaching upper 40s. Warmer beaches with
light breeze and warm water temps keeping lows in the upr 50s to
mid 60s.

Short term Tuesday night through 6 pm Tuesday
As of 220 pm mon... High pres will quickly pass offshore N of
the region tue. Skies will be mostly sunny to start then will
likely see some increase in mainly mid high clouds late espcly
srn tier in advance of next system. After cool start temps will
warm nicely reaching 75 to 80 again most spots with comfortable
humidity.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 330 am Monday... A stronger low pressure area and
attendant cold front will move across the area Wednesday with
high pressure building in through the rest of the week bringing
a cooler and drier airmass.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... High pressure migrates
off the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday night as a more robust upper
level system approaches from the west and an area of low
pressure develops across the southeast and deepens as it tracks
across the carolina piedmont and offshore Wednesday. Isentropic
lift increases across the area Tuesday evening with widespread
precip developing across the area after midnight. A warm front
will lift across portions of the area Wednesday morning before
the cold front pushes through in the afternoon. Modest
instability will develop in the warm sector with strong shear
and forcing present bringing a chance for thunderstorms ahead of
the cold front. There may also be a risk for severe storms as
well with MUCAPE values potentially reaching 1000-1500 j kg with
deep layer shear around 40 kts. There is some uncertainly in
just how much instability will occur though as the 14 00z nam
and GFS have trended a little eastward with the low, tracking it
near or along the coast, bringing less instability to much of
the area, especially inland, however, the cmc and ECMWF still
have more of an inland track. We could see beneficial rainfall
with models showing widespread QPF amounts around 3 4 to 1 inch.

Temps remain seasonably mild Tuesday and Wednesday with highs
in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Tuesday night remain mild ahead of
the cold front with low mainly in the mid 60s. Strong caa
develops behind the cold front late Wednesday and especially
Wednesday night with lows expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s
inland to mid 50s coast.

Thursday through Sunday... Strong high pressure builds in from
the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a much
cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s with lows
in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the
coast. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with ridging
building aloft with dry conditions persisting and MAX temps
warming into the 70s.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 730 pm mon... Primary forecast challenge is potential fog
formation late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Based on
climatology, several hours of shallow sub-vfr fog are possible
at pgv, with guidance also indicating that patchy fog could
impact ewn and oaj. Otherwise,VFR conditions and light winds
prevail through the period.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 4 am Monday... A strengthening low pressure area will lift
across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
sub-vfr conditions in showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected. A strong cold front will push through Wednesday
afternoon with predVFR conditions returning and continuing
through the end of the week as strong high pressure builds in
from the west. Strong south to southwest winds expected ahead of
the front and could see gusts to around 25 kt at the terminals
Tuesday night and Wednesday with a period of gusty northwest
winds late Wednesday behind the front.

Marine
Short term through Tue ...

as of 220 pm mon... Cold front will drift offshore this evening
with high pres building in from the NW overnight. Mainly w
winds 5 to 15 kt will become N behind the front. On Tue the high
quickly moves offshore to the N with NE winds 5 to 15 kts become
e late. Seas mainly 2 to 4 ft tonight and 2 to 3 ft tue.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 4 am Monday... Winds veer to SE and S and begin to
increase Tuesday night ahead of the next system with sca
conditions expected to return Wednesday as a low pressure moves
across the area. A warm front will lift across the waters
Tuesday night ahead of the low with winds becoming south to
southwest and increasing to 20-30 kt with higher gusts and seas
building to 6-10 ft Wednesday. The front pushes through
Wednesday afternoon with winds becoming northwest around 15-25
kt Wednesday, which gradually diminishes through the day
Thursday. Seas peak Wednesday afternoon and gradually subside
through the end of the work week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz203-
205.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf cb
short term... Rf
long term... Sk
aviation... Sk CB ml
marine... Rf sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 30 mi35 min WSW 9.7 G 12 75°F 77°F1017.3 hPa
41159 30 mi43 min 76°F3 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi61 min WSW 4.1 G 7 74°F 75°F1018.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi43 min WSW 6 G 7 73°F 1017.8 hPa (+1.3)69°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi55 min WSW 6 G 8 73°F 77°F1017 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi35 min W 7.8 G 12 74°F 76°F1017.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi33 min 76°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi35 min W 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 1016 hPa
WLON7 46 mi55 min 70°F 75°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi1.8 hrsWSW 610.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1017.7 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi47 minW 310.00 miFair69°F66°F90%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNJM

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13S13SW10N3CalmCalmSE7S3W3CalmCalmW4W5W5SW10SW7S8SW8SW8SW8SW9SW7W6NW3
1 day agoSW8W4W4W3W4W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW7S7SW7SW12S12SW9SW7S9S11S9S12
2 days agoCalmCalmNE4NE4NE3NE4NE4NE3CalmCalmNE3--E3----S8SW8SW9SW8SW9SW7SW8SW8SW10

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:20 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:38 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:53 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.70.40.50.91.72.53.23.73.73.42.71.91.10.60.40.71.322.83.33.43.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:18 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:35 AM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:51 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:50 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.60.40.40.71.31.92.42.72.82.521.40.90.50.40.611.62.12.42.52.31.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.