Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

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Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:21PM Monday July 22, 2019 6:31 PM EDT (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 10:15AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 316 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 222226
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
626 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area Tuesday before
crossing early Wednesday, bringing rain much needed relief from
the heat for the second half of the week. High pressure will
build in behind the front through late week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 615 pm mon... Dropped heat advisory cpl hrs early as all
sites have seen heat index values drop below 105. Seas breeze
has pushed deep inland with just isold convection poss next cpl
hrs deep inland. Additional convection poss deep inland later
tonight from activity well to the w... Could also see some
shra tsra develop near cst late.

Prev disc... Starting to see isolated cells forming along the
sea breeze late this afternoon. Could see another couple of
storms form during peak heating but the vast majority of the
region will remain dry this evening. Late tonight: 1) the
remnants of a prefrontal convective line initiating over the
mountains this evening will move toward the coastal
plain albemarle sound counties while weakening. 2) some showers
forming over the nearshore waters will move into coastal areas
around dawn. Therefore will carry low chance pops these areas
overnight. Otherwise skies will be clear to partly cloudy with
muggy conditions continuing. Lows will be similar to past few
night 75 to 80 with a SW breeze.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
As of 345 pm mon... Tuesday shaping up to be an active day
weather wise as a seasonably strong cold front interacts with
the hot humid airmass entrenched over the area due to upper
ridging giving way to troughing aloft. Moisture will pool ahead
of the front with pw values surging to 2.2-2.4" and mu capes
around 2500 j kg. Shear will be modest but enough to support
strong storms capable of producing localized damaging winds. In
addition the the region will be in the right entrance region of
the jet supporting sustained lift. mbe velocities suggest
training cells and and a localized flood threat with the high
resolution models forecasting local amounts 3-5". Will forecast
likely to categorical pops and aerial rainfall averages 1-2"
over the coastal plain and less amounts along the coast where
the models have been depicting a minimum in precipitation
amounts. Highs will be a little cooler in the mid to upper 80s
due to clouds and precipitation.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 245 pm mon... A cold front will start pushing through Tuesday
night and be offshore Wednesday morning. More pleasant temps and dry
high pressure expected mid week all the way through early next week.

Tuesday night... Showers and thunderstorms will finally edge towards
the coast by Tuesday evening, but think heaviest rain rates will
start to wane with loss of heating. Expect widespread light showers
through the overnight as the cold front pushes through the area.

Wednesday... The forecast remains a little tricky with the amount of
shower coverage across the area. Think that coastal areas would
continue to see some occasional overrunning showers with the front
now offshore, as h85 mb front hangs back just a bit. Either way,
rain totals will be rather light due to scattered nature nature of
the light showers. Interior zones best chance of staying dry. Much
cooler due to cloud cover and some showers, with highs in the lower
80s. Lows Wed night in the 60s interior to low mid 70s coast.

Thursday... The front which had moved far enough south and off the
coast may spur some weak offshore coastal troughing, though any
showers appear like they will remain offshore, but a few may graze
the SRN coast and SRN obx zones, so have a small (30%) chc in fcst.

Rest of the area dry with high pres beginning to ridge in. Highs
pleasant, slightly below climo in the mid upr 80s, low 80s, obx.

Coolish overnight lows range from mid 60s inland to low mid 70s
beaches.

Friday through Monday... Longwave troughing present for the eastern
conus, with light nerly flow and will mean near to slightly below
climo temps, as well as dry conditions. High temps mainly in the 85-
90 degree range with lows in the 60s inland to low 70s coast.

Aviation 22z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 615 pm mon...VFR expected thru Tue morn. Once high based
cu dissipates deep inland shortly expect mostly sct bkn high
clouds overnight. As front moves into region Tue expect numerous
shra and tsra thru the aftn with some pds of subVFR. A few of
the storms could be strong with locally gusty winds. Most of
guidance also shows some lower CIGS developing in wake of front
late well inland.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 345 pm mon... A cold front moving through the area Tuesday
evening will bring widespread showers and storms with tempo
restrictions to CIGS vsbys. Back to mainlyVFR by mid to late
week as NE winds and drier conditions expected vicinity of the
taf sites.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 615 pm mon... No changes as gusty ssw winds cont along the
coast.

Prev disc... Sca's remain in affect for the coastal waters and
sounds. Strong SW winds and rough seas expected to develop this
and evening and continue on Tuesday ahead of a seasonably strong
cold front. Latest obs show W SW winds 15-25 kt across the
waters and sounds. Expect winds to increase to 20-30 kt tonight.

Winds could briefly subside Tue morning but will increase again
in the afternoon to 20-25 kt thus several of the advisories
have had the expiration times extended. Seas 3-5 ft will build
to 4-7 ft this evening and tonight and continue 4-6 ft tue.

High risk of rip currents from north topsail beach to cape
hatteras again Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 245 pm mon... The winds gradient will start to relax a bit as
sw winds decrease Tuesday night with the approaching front moving
through the waters by early Wednesday morning. Seas is expect to
subside below 6ft after midnight wed. Winds become NE 10-20 knots
wed through late week with high pres building into the waters.

Conditions should remain below SCA this period with seas generally 2-
4 ft. May be occasional showers ESP srn waters Wed into Fri with
front just to the south.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz195-
196-199-204-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Tuesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for amz131-230-231.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Wednesday for amz152-154-
156.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Tuesday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt Tuesday night for
amz158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf jme
short term... Jme
long term... Tl bm
aviation... Rf bm
marine... Rf jme tl bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 30 mi83 min WSW 19 G 23 84°F 84°F1013.8 hPa
41159 30 mi31 min 83°F4 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi61 min SSW 17 G 23 85°F 87°F1014.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi31 min SSW 17 G 21 85°F 1013.8 hPa (-1.6)77°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi61 min S 22 G 25 83°F 81°F1013.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi51 min 82°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi83 min SW 18 G 23 82°F 84°F1014.9 hPa
WLON7 46 mi61 min 90°F 88°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi94 minSSW 1510.00 miFair87°F75°F70%1014.7 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi35 minSSW 15 G 2510.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F71°F57%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:06 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:13 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.72.11.50.90.50.30.511.72.32.82.92.82.41.81.20.80.60.611.62.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.221.61.10.70.40.30.50.81.31.72.12.22.11.81.410.70.50.60.81.21.62

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.