Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:31PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 3:30 PM EDT (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:31AMMoonset 12:25AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1010 Am Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
.gale warning in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..NE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of rain early this afternoon. Rain likely late.
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Rain.
Wed..N winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough in the afternoon. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except around 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 311403 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1003 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

SYNOPSIS. An rapidly deepening area of low pressure will move eastward to the south of the area tonight and further strengthen offshore tomorrow. High pressure will build over the area late this week into the weekend, as low pressure lingers over the Atlantic.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1000 AM Tue . Looks like in-situ damming occurring currently across NC this morning as high pressure ridges in from the northeast. Meanwhile low pressure is gathering over the deep south. Widespread mid and high clouds were observed across the region with an area of lower clouds noted across the northern Outer Banks to Albemarle Sound region. Radar is indicating some weak returns across the northern half of the area which is virga since the atmosphere is currently quite dry below 12K ft per 12Z raobs.

Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough digging into the central MS valley this morning with an associated developing surface low over the deep south. The low will become absorbed into a rapidly developing low along/just off the NC coast this evening, then moving slowly off of the Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight and Wednesday. This will result in heavy rain tonight, and high winds and minor coastal flooding concerns tonight and Wed.

The afternoon should be fairly quiet as the dry sub cloud layer will take awhile to moisten. However after 21Z, as warm advection increases and moisture surges north across Eastern NC, the coverage and intensity of precipitation will increase over the area as the surface low passes just off the coast. While model convective parameters are marginal at best, the strength of the lift with strong warm advection and upper level divergence suggest that elevated instability will be present and will include mention of thunder in the evening with the 4 PM update. This is supported by the CAM output which indicate a convective precipitation mode with high rainfall rates and also the operational model QPF forecasts such as the ECMWF which is forecasting .75 to over an inch of rainfall along the coast 0-6Z this evening.

Northeasterly flow, combined with abundant cloud cover, will keep temperatures markedly cooler than yesterday with low to mid 60s to the southeast and mid to upper 50s near the Albemarle Sound.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. As of 400 AM Tue . Surface low will quickly deepen as shortwave undertakes a neutral tilt over the Carolinas and the low interacts with the natural baroclinic zone near the Gulf Stream. Widespread rain is expected across eastern NC tonight with heaviest rain focused along or just south of the Crystal Coast after sunset as frontogenesis increases in response to colder air quickly wrapping in aloft. This threat transitions to the Outer Banks after midnight. WPC QPF continues to favor an inch of rain for most with an inch and a half to nearly two inches for portions of the Outer Banks, and the 00Z HREF suggests rainfall rates of a half inch per hour or more are possible. This could lead to some minor ponding in more urban areas although more pronounced flooding is not expected.

Additionally, northerly winds will quickly increase as pressure gradient rapidly tightens. Issued a Wind Advisory for the Outer Banks starting late tonight with gusts of 50-55 mph likely, peaking near sunrise. Such flow will lead to coastal flooding issues and dangerous surf - see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more details.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As 3 AM Tue . Low pressure will strengthen off the coast Wednesday, pushing further offshore through the day. High pressure will build over the area late week into the weekend, as low pressure lingers over the Atlantic. Temps will gradually moderate late week into the weekend.

Wednesday . Low pressure will continue to deepen off the coast Wed, pushing further offshore through the day. Precip should be ending pretty quickly from west to east. Strong winds will peak Wednesday morning with gusts 40-50 mph along the coast. Wind Advisories will continue for the Outer Banks and Eastern Carteret. Minor water level rises and rough surf are expected. See Coastal Flood section below for more details. Low level thickness values, clouds and northerly flow support highs in the 50s.

Thursday through Monday . High pressure will build in late week into the weekend, as low pressure lingers over the Atlantic. Mostly dry weather expected through the period, with slightly better precip chances early next week. Temps will slowly moderate through period. Near of slightly below climo through early weekend, then warming into the 70s inland late week into early next weekend as flow becomes more southerly.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through 12Z Wednesday/ . As of 735 AM Tue . VFR conditions prevail across the airspace this morning with high confidence in VFR conditions prior to 21z. Cloud cover increases and lowers quickly thereafter as low pressure initially over the southeast U.S. quickly deepens off the coast of the Carolinas. Rain will overspread all sites late afternoon into evening with heaviest rainfall focused closer to the coast where better frontogenetic forcing will be realized. IFR conditions most likely for EWN/OAJ after 00Z with heavier rainba73nds. ISO/PGV is forecast to see more of a mix between MVFR and IFR with heavier rain displaced to the south and east. Northeasterly winds will gust to 15-20 kt as low deepens with strongest winds farther east.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/ . As of 3 AM Tue . High confidence in sub-VFR conditions Wednesday morning, with ceilings gradually lifting through the day, improving to VFR by Wed evening. Precip will be ending quickly Wed morning from west to east. Northerly wind gusts 20-25 kt expected Wed. Pred VFR conditions expected Wed night into the weekend.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and Tonight/ . As of 1000 AM Tue . North to northeast winds of 15-20 kt continue across the waters this morning with a few gusts to 30 kt. These conditions are expected to persist for the next couple of hours and mariners should exercise caution if going out on the waters this morning.

Prev disc . Latest buoy and local observations show northerly winds of 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and seas 3-5 ft as high pressure builds in from the NNE. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate late this afternoon as low pressure pushes off the South Carolina coast and quickly deepens. Gale warnings hoisted for all waters except the Pamlico/Pungo rivers (where a SCA was issued instead) with northeasterly gusts peaking at 40 kt overnight with a few Storm force gusts certainly possible over the central waters. Seas quickly build from 3-5 feet this morning to 10-14 feet for northern and central waters tonight, and 5-8 feet south. Very rough waters expected over the sounds with a few 5 footers possible over the Pamlico Sound.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/ . As of 3 AM Tue . Dangerous winds and seas expected Wednesday. Surface low will strengthen off the NC coast Wed, slowly pushing further offshore late Wed and Wed night. Strong northerly winds 25-35 kt with gusts 35-50 kt Wed morning, slowly diminishing to 20-30 kt by late afternoon. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters, sounds and Neuse River. SCA for the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers. Seas will peak at 8-16 ft Wed, highest north of Ocracoke.

Surface high pressure will build over the area Thursday into the weekend, though low pressure will continue to strengthen, lingering over the Atlantic and will continue to impact the waters into early next week. NW winds 15-25 kt Thu with seas 6-9 ft subsiding to 4-7 ft by afternoon. Seas may briefly drop below 6 ft across the southern waters Thu night into early Friday, though should remain elevated across the central and northern waters. Gusty NNW winds will continue Friday into early Sat as gradient tightens between the high and low. Increasing long period swell from distant low will begin to impact the waters Friday, peaking this weekend. Seas will build to 10-15 ft (possibly higher Sat and Sat night north of Ocracoke) with 14-15 sec periods.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 3 AM Tue . Strong N/NE winds will develop tonight, peaking Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Minor water level rises are expected for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound and Neuse River, and oceanside locations north of Cape Hatteras, generally 1-2 ft agl. Rough surf will develop along with the threat for minor erosion for the beaches north of Hatteras. Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories have been issued tonight into Wed.

Coastal concerns will likely continue along the Outer Banks this weekend. Beaches will begin to see long period swell from distant low pressure arrive Friday, peaking Saturday and Saturday night. Confidence is increasing that the Outer Banks will see large powerful wave action (periods 14-15 seconds), with the threats for very rough surf, beach erosion and ocean overwash.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094-194-196. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203. Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ205. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ204. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-156. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ231. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ230. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . JME/MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . CQD/MS MARINE . JME/CQD/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 30 mi83 min E 23 G 33 61°F 64°F1008.1 hPa
41159 30 mi31 min 64°F6 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi61 min NE 16 G 20 58°F 64°F1009.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi31 min NE 25 G 27 58°F 1008.7 hPa (-3.8)56°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi61 min ENE 22 G 25 60°F 62°F1008 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi83 min ENE 19 G 27 60°F 1008.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi51 min 64°F6 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi83 min E 23 G 29 70°F1006.1 hPa
WLON7 46 mi61 min 62°F 66°F1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi34 minNE 1510.00 miOvercast61°F42°F50%1009 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi35 minENE 1210.00 miOvercast64°F44°F48%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNJM

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:44 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:13 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.12.82.41.81.20.80.50.60.91.41.92.32.62.52.11.61.10.60.40.50.91.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:10 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.32.11.81.30.90.60.50.50.81.11.51.81.91.81.61.20.80.50.40.40.71.11.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.