Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:48PM Saturday August 24, 2019 7:42 AM EDT (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:53PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 640 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Today..N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms early this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat. A chance of showers.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241059
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
659 am edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will continue to push south through the area
this morning. The front will stall well offshore Sunday with
low pressure moving along it Monday. A tropical low is expected
to track off the southeast coast early next week. Another cold
front will approach the area mid to late week.

Near term today
As of 7 am sat... Latest sfc analysis shows cold front pushing
off the southern coast this morning. Behind the front, high
pressure to the north will shift east and set up a weak wedge to
our west, ushering in a cooler and more stable airmass. Latest
radar imagery shows isolated showers this morning, best coverage
well offshore ahead of the front. Will continue to show pops
increasing to high chance likely this afternoon and early
evening. Most cams show best chances along the southern coast
this afternoon, closer to the front near area of better
convergence and instability. A thin axis of instability is
possible along the coast as shown by hi-res guidance, but given
the expected considerable cloud cover and NE winds, TSTM chances
look more isolated. Pwats will remain 2-2.25 inches today, so
the main concern still looks like a localized flood threat,
especially considering the recent substantial rainfall many
areas have received. With the wedge, mostly cloudy skies and ne
flow, expect to see temps considerably cooler with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Short term tonight
As of 230 am sat... The front will remain offshore tonight, as
high pressure builds in from the north and moist low level ne
flow continues across enc. Scattered to numerous showers will
continue through the evening, as decent overrunning regime sets
up with h85 mb flow still srly. Pw values are above 2" and deep
warm cloud layer with the best convergence near the low mid
level frontal across SRN and eastern half of the forecast area.

Lows will drop into the upper 60s inland to low 70s along the
coast.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 345 am sat... Unsettled weather continues and a possible
tropical system moves well offshore away from nc coast early
next week. A cold front will approach the area from the west by
midweek and push through towards the end of the workweek.

Sunday through Tuesday... The mid to upper level trough over the
ne CONUS will start to slide farther east... Allowing for weak
disturbance to move across the carolinas, while quasi-
stationary frontal boundary remain along the enc
coast... Allowing for additional unsettled weather for Sunday.

Overall, the latest models have most of the coverage over the
southern half of the forecast area, while the intensity doesn't
appear to be too impressive; so rain amounts do not look too
high, even along coastal areas. Have trended the pops slightly
lower, but will continue to mention of likely pops over the
coastal zone with chance of pops inland.

The 00z model suite is starting to have an agree with the
development of possible tropical system. The 00z ecwmf continues
to be the most aggressive with the development of the tropical
system, but now the ecwmf has support from the cmc UKMET with
the development. These models show the system would be farther
east from the nc coast by Monday and Tuesday... Indicating most
of the impacts would be related to the water in the form of
rough surf, strong rip currents, and possible heavy rainfall.

While the GFS continues to be the outlier as the system is
weaker and closer to the nc coast. With the expected east track
(away from nc coast)... Expect gusty winds along the coast as
the high pressure ridges into the carolinas (inland) and
possible tropical system to the southeast. Will continue to
mention chance pops during this period.

Wednesday through Friday... High pressure should build back in
late Tue as the low departs ne. Models are showing a shortwave
approaching carolinas followed by a cold front push through
Thursday which will trigger additional showers both days. High
pressure will rebuild again Friday with drier conditions.

Expect highs to climb back towards climo, in the mid upr 80s.

Lows continue in the 60s interior to low 70s coast.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am sat... Challenging forecast through the period, with
widespread sub-vfr conditions expected. Ifr and lifr ceilings
have developed behind a cold front this morning in the moist
n NE flow. Think ceilings will lift to MVFR late this morning
and early afternoon, but confidence remains low as ifr could
persist through the day in the moist NE flow. Scattered to
numerous shra and a few storms expected today, with best chances
this afternoon and evening. Widespread low clouds likely to
continue overnight into early Sunday, with ifr likely.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 345 am sat... A quasi-stationary boundary will remain
close to the nc coast Sunday... Leading to unsettled weather and
occasional sub-vfr conditions. Flying conditions are expected to
improve as some drier conditions filters in.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am sat... Latest obs show N nne winds 10-15 kt with gusts
to 20 kt, and seas 3-5 ft north of hatteras and 2-4 ft south.

Cold front will continue to push through the southern waters
this morning and then stall offshore through tonight. Winds
will continue to shift to the NE today, generally 10-15 kt,
maybe a bit stronger north of hatteras and the sounds. Main
forecast challenge today is the potential for 6 ft seas for the
northern waters. Seas have jumped several feet in a few hours
for the waters north of hatteras with N nne winds. Could see a
period of 6 ft seas develop, especially north of oregon inlet,
though confidence is low. Nwps and wavewatch 1-2 ft underdone.

Seas 3-5 ft north of hatteras today, and 2-4 ft south. Gradient
tightens overnight and early Sunday morning, with NE winds
increasing to 10-20 kt, maybe as strong as 15-25 kt north of
oregon inlet. Went with a SCA beginning early Sun morning, for
the northern waters with increasing winds and building seas.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 345 am sat... Wind gradient will tighten Sunday as a low
pressure system organizes to the south, and high pressure wedges
in to our west. NE winds 15-25 knots with higher gusts. Gusty ne
winds continues Monday as potential tropical system moves ne
well off of the nc coast. Seas and swell will build to greater
than 6 ft by Sunday and remain that way through Monday as the
system tracks ne. As the system moves ne, winds will gradually
diminish on Tuesday to AOA 15 knots and by Wednesday N NE 5-10
knots. Seas will slowly subside below 6ft Wednesday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 8 pm edt Tuesday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Tl bm
aviation... Cqd bm
marine... Cqd bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 30 mi34 min NNE 7.8 G 12 80°F 84°F1016.5 hPa
41159 30 mi42 min 84°F2 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi54 min NNE 5.1 G 7 75°F 85°F1017.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi42 min N 8 G 9.9 76°F 1016.7 hPa (+0.7)73°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi60 min N 8 G 8.9 75°F 84°F1016.1 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi34 min NNE 9.7 G 16 78°F 84°F1016.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi32 min 84°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi34 min NNE 9.7 G 16 80°F 84°F1016.7 hPa
WLON7 46 mi60 min 76°F 85°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi45 minNNE 410.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1017.4 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi46 minNNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNJM

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:09 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:44 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:22 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.62.82.72.31.81.20.80.60.71.11.72.433.33.43.22.72.11.510.70.81.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:06 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:41 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.92.121.71.310.70.50.60.91.31.82.22.52.52.321.61.20.80.70.70.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.