Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 5:37 PM   Moonset 3:37 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 849 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop late. Patchy fog early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Fri night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers after midnight.Sat - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 849 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return to unsettled weather.

FXUS62 KMHX 211045 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 645 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return to unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 645 AM Tue...Leading edge of stratus and fog shield has advected westward through much of ENC with the exception of the Coastal Plain counties roughly along an OAJ to PGV line. Vsbys have dropped to as low as 1/2 SM to the east of this line. Will hold off on DFA as not seeing widespread enough 1/4 SM, and should not as now the sun is rising and should see fog lift and clear over the next several hours.

Prev disc
As of 3 AM Tue
Bank of stratus advecting wwrd off the Atlantic is overspreading much of ENC, as area is under influence of nerly low level flow. Some reductions in vsbys to less than 1 mi, though anything lower than a half mile will be patchy, so don't expect any fog headlines through morning.

Ridging aloft, and high pressure at the surface, will support another day of dry weather across ENC. Assuming clouds mix out by the afternoon, highs should reach close to normal inland, but still remain below normal along the Outer Banks with stratus holding tough and cont nerly flow. Highs near 80 interior, to 60s OBX.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 3 AM Tue...Main story tonight will be threat for dense fog, potentially quite widespread. X-over temps are expected to be reached and exceeded today, with TD's this afternoon in the low 60s. Overnight lows tonight will drop below those vals by 3+ degrees all areas, esp interior. These factors, combined with erly onshore flow today becoming calm tonight and cont skc skies will set the stage for this fog and very low stratus potential.
Areas near the coast will not escape the fog threat, as winds over the sounds and waters will be less than 5 kts. Will highlight the dense fog threat in the HWO for now. Later shifts may have to consider fog headlines.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues to build in from the north through Thursday. A series of shortwaves will come through the region Friday through the weekend, with a wetter and more unsettled end the long term.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. By Wed and Thu, temps rise to near 90 and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with low 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 60s.

Friday through Monday...High pressure shifts offshore to our west and more active pattern kicks in with multiple shortwaves impacting the region. Thundershowers possible with each of these waves with a warm/humid airmass in place, thanks to the high offshore. Rain chances ahead of the shortwave and frontal system early Friday have trended a bit drier, so kept PoPs generally at Schc, with highest values the further north you go.
After the front passes through, a series of shortwaves impact ENC, one on Friday night through Saturday, and another Monday into Monday night. Both of these shortwaves carry Chc PoPs with them. Followed closer to climo, and kept highest thunder chances in the afternoon and evening periods. At this point severe weather threat appears to be low through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Today/...
As of 645 AM Tue...Periods of IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected through this morning with reduced visibility from low stratus development. The low stratus over the coastal counties cont to advect westward, and will impact KEWN first, and then the remaining TAF sites by 10Z. By mid morning, lower ceilings will push back to the east and cloud cover will diminish across the coastal plain. Late tonight, a return to IFR looks likely, and in fact a signal for dense fog and or LIFR/VLIFR cond is apparent. Will have to watch for later updates and inclusions of dense fog to the forecast for the Tue night/Wed morning period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Friday onwards could result in lower vis and ceilings.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Dense marine fog remains a possibility through this morning, and marine DFA is in effect for the northern half to account for this. High pressure will shift over Eastern NC today. This will allow winds and seas to lay down, supporting improving marine conditions by mid morning. Fog and low stratus (<100 ft) are a possibility once again later tonight and into Wed morning, and am fcsting vsbys less than 1 SM once again.
Another marine DFA may eventually be needed for tonight. Winds will be very light (<5 kt all sounds, rivers and coastal waters)
late tonight as high pres will be directly overhead, and thus enhance the fog threat.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control through Thursday morning, resulting in good boating conditions.
As the high moves offshore through the day Thursday, SW winds pick up, gusting near 20 kts Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds come back down a tad Thursday night, but multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms exist Friday through the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-135- 150-152-154-230-231.

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New River Inlet
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Tue -- 12:59 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
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New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bogue Inlet
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Tue -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:45 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:10 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
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Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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