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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 108 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon and evening, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon and evening, then increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

AMZ100 108 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A weakening area of low pressure will push across the area today. High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight through early Tuesday. Low pressure develops along the carolina coast Tuesday afternoon, then lifts away from the area late Tuesday night, followed by a mid-level shortwave pushing through on Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the area through Saturday.

FXUS62 KMHX 041537 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1037 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weakening area of low pressure will push across the area today. High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight through early Tuesday. Low pressure develops along the Carolina coast Tuesday afternoon, then lifts away from the area late Tuesday night, followed by a mid-level shortwave pushing through on Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the area through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1015 AM Monday...Deeper shield of high clouds continue to gradually slide offshore this morning while shortwave energy is evident on WV satellite imagery pushing ewd across TN/KY.
Little changes to the going forecast with main adjustment for the morning update was to raise TD several degrees through the morning hours to capture latest trends. Otherwise, expect a dry day with mainly sunny skies occasionally filtered through passing high clouds.

Previous discussion...Cooler day to start the workweek with weak SFC High in place briefly with the FA in between last night's front pushing offshore and a vertically stacked, weakening low traversing Appalachia today. This low will continue to fill in as it travels Eward across the Carolinas with a weak warm front slowly lifting across Sern portions of the FA this afternoon. Upper level cloud coverage expected to wane through the day as moisture transport off the Gulf sinks Sward leading to mostly sunny conditions by late afternoon.
Highs in the mid to upper 60s, warmest over the Sern coast where SWerly flow develops behind the weak warm front. A few showers could try to develop to the west of the coastal plain as a surface trough moves through but, similar to previous forecasts, think that virga remains the only possibility, most of which should remain W of the FA.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
As of 0330 Monday...Cooler night ahead with the upper jet pushing offshore, flow aloft briefly becoming more zonal, and deepening SFC low well offshore the MidAtlantic allowing Nerly flow to return. Clear skies inland with some lingering upper level clouds near the coast. Lows in the upper 30s W of HWY17, around 40 Crystal Coast, mid to upper 40s OBX.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 435 AM Sunday...A progressive pattern develops for the upcoming week into next weekend, with a strong shortwave aloft on Wednesday bringing chances for rain, then a strong cold front possible by late weekend.

Tuesday...weak high pressure will remain along the coast Tuesday. High-res guidance hints at a weak surface low developing off the NC coast, and thus have limited slight chance PoPs to the central and southern coast for Tues afternoon. This surface low will move well away from the coast as a strong midlevel shortwave trough moves in from the northwest Tuesday night into Wed. Maintained previous forecast thinking with timing of PoPs, but increased a few percentage points and increased QPF to 0.10-0.15 inches, esp. east of HWY 17 and for the northern OBX. A strong surface gradient will develop between the departing (and strengthening) surface low, and high pressure building in late Wed into Wed night, with gusty winds expected Wed afternoon through evening, upwards of 30-40 mph for the central and northern OBX.

Thursday into Sunday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's shortwave, and begins a warming trend that will last through the weekend. Strong southerly return flow will develop by late Saturday, building dew points back into the 50s by sunset Sat. A complex low pressure system will move through the Ohio River Valley as the upper level trough digs south into the Southeast.
Continued high-chance PoPs for showers ahead of and associated with the frontal passage. Cannot rule out thunderstorms with Sunday's front, but still too early to mention thunder despite strong kinematics, given limited instability.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 0640 Monday...VFR flight cats expected through the TAF period save for patchy fog that developed over OAJ, which is expected to dissipate within the next hour or so. Cirrus currently overhead wanes through the period as cold front pushes further offshore. Light winds predominantly out of NW through morning, becoming more Werly this afternoon, veering to become Nerly overnight.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Monday...Predominant VFR aviation conditions through the period. Showers are possible across eastern NC on Wed, but the area should remain dry otherwise. Gusty winds, upwards of 20-25 kt, are anticipated on Wednesday due to a strong surface gradient developing between low pressure offshore and strong high pressure over the Deep South. Gusty winds will diminish by Thursday as high pressure builds in from the southwest.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday Night/...
As of 0330 Monday...Winds currently Werly 10-15kt with 3-5ft, short period 6-7sec seas. Winds over the northern waters will remain northerly around 10 kt but over the southern waters winds will back to the W and WSW and increase to 15-20 kt as a weak warm front lifts Nward ahead of an approaching surface trough.
Seas will be 2-3 ft over most of the waters but building to 3-5 ft late across Sern waters as winds increase. Brief period of stronger winds over outer Sern waters with gusts ~25kt from sunset for a couple of hours. Opted not to issue an SCA as conditions are short-lived and not very widespread. Winds veer to become Nerly 10-15kt after midnight local with seas subsiding to 2-4ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 415 AM Monday...Busy marine weather for portions of the long term period. Wednesday will present the next scenario for SCA conditions with possibly gale-force gusts for Wednesday afternoon into evening, esp. for the outer coastal waters. These winds are the result of a strong pressure gradient developing between developing low pressure offshore and strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds and seas diminish on Thursday as the surface high pressure moves over the waters, with light SW flow developing Friday as the high shifts offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Bogue Inlet
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Mon -- 12:09 AM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:23 PM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:29 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:53 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:45 PM EST     Moonrise
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Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

New River Inlet
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Mon -- 12:12 AM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:26 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:30 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:55 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:46 PM EST     Moonrise
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New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,