Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cedar Point, NC
May 15, 2024 4:24 PM EDT (20:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 11:53 AM Moonset 1:10 AM |
AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 123 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
.severe Thunderstorm watch 245 in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .
This afternoon - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds and nw 1 ft at 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun - W winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 123 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Inclement boating conditions continue over offshore zones as low pressure lifts into far southeastern virginia this morning. Sca conditions remain here until Thursday morning. Another round of poor boating conditions is possible early next week in the wake of weekend low pressure.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 151356 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 956 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as low pressure lifts to our north. A cold front will sweep across ENC tonight with high pressure building in behind it, keeping Thursday dry. Another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 10 AM Wednesday...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front has nudged east and is now positioned roughly across the western edge of the Pamlico Sound. Low clouds and fog continue to hang around this morning but will gradually dissipate over the next few hours as our surface winds slightly increase. The forecast remains on track for rapid destabilization to occur after the clouds break up, which will set the stage for strong to severe storms to develop this afternoon.
Prev disc...Unsettled weather pattern prevails over the southeastern CONUS this morning as heights fall ahead of mid- level troughing digging into the TN Valley. This feature will continue its sojourn eastward through the short term period, with the axis passing to our south late tonight and moving offshore by daybreak Thursday. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure was analyzed over far southeastern Virginia lifting northward, placing ENC in the warm sector with a cold front just west of the coastal plain, demarcated by a healthy Td gradient.
Widespread stratus has overspread much of the state with sufficiently deep low-level moisture in place, and will remain in place through daybreak. Surface winds will be very light today (5 kt or less) and the resultant lack of earnest mixing will preclude any scattering out of ceilings until late this morning. However, once the sun breaks through and robust heating begins instability will quickly build (up to 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) as temperatures climb to the low 80s and dew points surge to near 70. Model soundings show negligible capping in place as the mid-level low approaches, and a vort max rotating around its base will provide the focal point for gradual shower and thunderstorm development.
The pre-storm environment will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with moderate to strong instability in place and effective shear of 35-40 kt. Long straight hodographs favor splitting cells and multi-cluster development with a risk of damaging winds and hail. Although all inland locales will be in a favorable environment, NCAR HRRR ensembles and SSCRAM output point to a local maxima of severe potential along the southern coast, juxtaposed with the highest axis of deep layer shear. SPC has the coastal plain in a Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms, while the rest of the region is in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 400 AM Thu...Mid-level trough will swing across the region overnight as low pressure lifts farther north off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula. The surface cold front, which will have lifted back north this afternoon, will sweep back across ENC overnight. The low-level frontal convergence will likely provide a focal point for continued convective development, but this will quickly wane overnight as the more stable airmass sweeps into the area. Low- level moisture will be slow to exit and low overcast skies are likely for most of the overnight period. Lows will be a few degrees cooler, dipping back into the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 430 AM Wednesday...High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend. High pressure builds in early next week.
Thursday through Friday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. Lowered PoPs to below mentionable with most guidance now indicating dry conditions and model soundings showing only a shallow saturated layer above 850mb and very dry well mixed conditions below that. If any showers do develop, they will likely only produce virga. Ridging crest over the area Friday with mainly dry conditions expected but will see increasing clouds as the next system approaches and could see an isolated shower move in from the west late in the day.
Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through most of the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the region through much of the period.
Monday and Tuesday...The upper low slowly pulls away from the area early next week with high pressure building in from the west with generally dry conditions expected.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12Z Thursday/...
As of 735 AM Wed...IFR to LIFR conditions now widespread across the terminals as cold front nudges its way further towards the coast, now roughly along Highway 17. Latest guidance has slowed erosion of the cloud deck by a couple of hours, and latest TAFs now hold onto IFR and MVFR cigs slightly longer than the previous. VFR conditions are expected to gradually fill in from south to north late this morning as front retreats northward.
Shower and thunderstorm development will quickly follow this clearing given a rapid destabilizing and uncapped atmosphere, and a few storms could be strong with hail and gusts exceeding 50 kt.
Convective activity will wane late tonight as cold front pushes southward across the area. Ceilings are expected to crash immediately behind this boundary in light northerly flow.
Guidance has trended more aggressively with cigs, now strongly favoring IFR after 06z Thu.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected Thursday through Friday with high pressure building into the area. Another low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 405 AM Wed...Poor boating conditions are in place this morning as low pressure lifts into far southeastern Virginia and a weak cold front sits west of the coastal plain. Winds have fallen substantially from their peak this afternoon, now out of the southwest at around 10-15 kt. Higher seas persist for offshore waters, ranging from 5-7 feet across the far northern waters to 7-9 feet elsewhere. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt will continue for much of today, before veering northerly late tonight as cold front eventually makes its way across the waters. The lighter winds will allow seas to gradually fall through today, but the process will be slow and maintained SCA headlines for elevated seas into early Thursday morning.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will slowly push away from the area Thursday with high pressure transitioning across the waters on Friday with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Criteria. A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through the weekend but cannot rule out a period of low end SCA mainly late Saturday/Saturday night. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will be late in the weekend or early next week as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 956 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as low pressure lifts to our north. A cold front will sweep across ENC tonight with high pressure building in behind it, keeping Thursday dry. Another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 10 AM Wednesday...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front has nudged east and is now positioned roughly across the western edge of the Pamlico Sound. Low clouds and fog continue to hang around this morning but will gradually dissipate over the next few hours as our surface winds slightly increase. The forecast remains on track for rapid destabilization to occur after the clouds break up, which will set the stage for strong to severe storms to develop this afternoon.
Prev disc...Unsettled weather pattern prevails over the southeastern CONUS this morning as heights fall ahead of mid- level troughing digging into the TN Valley. This feature will continue its sojourn eastward through the short term period, with the axis passing to our south late tonight and moving offshore by daybreak Thursday. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure was analyzed over far southeastern Virginia lifting northward, placing ENC in the warm sector with a cold front just west of the coastal plain, demarcated by a healthy Td gradient.
Widespread stratus has overspread much of the state with sufficiently deep low-level moisture in place, and will remain in place through daybreak. Surface winds will be very light today (5 kt or less) and the resultant lack of earnest mixing will preclude any scattering out of ceilings until late this morning. However, once the sun breaks through and robust heating begins instability will quickly build (up to 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) as temperatures climb to the low 80s and dew points surge to near 70. Model soundings show negligible capping in place as the mid-level low approaches, and a vort max rotating around its base will provide the focal point for gradual shower and thunderstorm development.
The pre-storm environment will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with moderate to strong instability in place and effective shear of 35-40 kt. Long straight hodographs favor splitting cells and multi-cluster development with a risk of damaging winds and hail. Although all inland locales will be in a favorable environment, NCAR HRRR ensembles and SSCRAM output point to a local maxima of severe potential along the southern coast, juxtaposed with the highest axis of deep layer shear. SPC has the coastal plain in a Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms, while the rest of the region is in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 400 AM Thu...Mid-level trough will swing across the region overnight as low pressure lifts farther north off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula. The surface cold front, which will have lifted back north this afternoon, will sweep back across ENC overnight. The low-level frontal convergence will likely provide a focal point for continued convective development, but this will quickly wane overnight as the more stable airmass sweeps into the area. Low- level moisture will be slow to exit and low overcast skies are likely for most of the overnight period. Lows will be a few degrees cooler, dipping back into the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 430 AM Wednesday...High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend. High pressure builds in early next week.
Thursday through Friday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. Lowered PoPs to below mentionable with most guidance now indicating dry conditions and model soundings showing only a shallow saturated layer above 850mb and very dry well mixed conditions below that. If any showers do develop, they will likely only produce virga. Ridging crest over the area Friday with mainly dry conditions expected but will see increasing clouds as the next system approaches and could see an isolated shower move in from the west late in the day.
Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through most of the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the region through much of the period.
Monday and Tuesday...The upper low slowly pulls away from the area early next week with high pressure building in from the west with generally dry conditions expected.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12Z Thursday/...
As of 735 AM Wed...IFR to LIFR conditions now widespread across the terminals as cold front nudges its way further towards the coast, now roughly along Highway 17. Latest guidance has slowed erosion of the cloud deck by a couple of hours, and latest TAFs now hold onto IFR and MVFR cigs slightly longer than the previous. VFR conditions are expected to gradually fill in from south to north late this morning as front retreats northward.
Shower and thunderstorm development will quickly follow this clearing given a rapid destabilizing and uncapped atmosphere, and a few storms could be strong with hail and gusts exceeding 50 kt.
Convective activity will wane late tonight as cold front pushes southward across the area. Ceilings are expected to crash immediately behind this boundary in light northerly flow.
Guidance has trended more aggressively with cigs, now strongly favoring IFR after 06z Thu.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected Thursday through Friday with high pressure building into the area. Another low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 405 AM Wed...Poor boating conditions are in place this morning as low pressure lifts into far southeastern Virginia and a weak cold front sits west of the coastal plain. Winds have fallen substantially from their peak this afternoon, now out of the southwest at around 10-15 kt. Higher seas persist for offshore waters, ranging from 5-7 feet across the far northern waters to 7-9 feet elsewhere. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt will continue for much of today, before veering northerly late tonight as cold front eventually makes its way across the waters. The lighter winds will allow seas to gradually fall through today, but the process will be slow and maintained SCA headlines for elevated seas into early Thursday morning.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will slowly push away from the area Thursday with high pressure transitioning across the waters on Friday with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Criteria. A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through the weekend but cannot rule out a period of low end SCA mainly late Saturday/Saturday night. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will be late in the weekend or early next week as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 22 mi | 55 min | SW 2.9G | 76°F | 72°F | 29.66 | ||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 30 mi | 85 min | WNW 7G | 74°F | 29.70 | |||
| 41159 | 32 mi | 59 min | 73°F | 6 ft | ||||
| 41064 | 33 mi | 77 min | SW 14G | 73°F | 73°F | 29.69 | 72°F | |
| 41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 49 mi | 77 min | SSW 9.7G | 73°F | 72°F | 29.70 | 69°F | |
| 41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 49 mi | 77 min | SW 5.8G | 75°F | 71°F | 29.70 | 69°F | |
| 41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC | 49 mi | 59 min | 72°F | 4 ft | ||||
| JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC | 49 mi | 55 min | SW 7G | 82°F | 70°F | 29.65 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC | 3 sm | 27 min | SSE 08 | 7 sm | A Few Clouds | 79°F | 72°F | 79% | 29.66 | |
| KNCA NEW RIVER MCAS /H/ /MCCUTCHEON FLD/,NC | 19 sm | 28 min | WNW 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 68°F | 62% | 29.65 | |
| KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC | 19 sm | 28 min | NE 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 70°F | 78% | 29.67 | |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 23 sm | 26 min | SSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 70°F | 74% | 29.66 |
Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:58 AM EDT 2.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 08:21 AM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:52 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:31 PM EDT 1.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:58 AM EDT 2.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 08:21 AM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:52 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:31 PM EDT 1.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
New River Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:01 AM EDT 2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 08:23 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:53 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:34 PM EDT 2.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT 0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:01 AM EDT 2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 08:23 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:53 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:34 PM EDT 2.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT 0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.3 |
| 1 am |
| 2.6 |
| 2 am |
| 2.8 |
| 3 am |
| 2.6 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Morehead City, NC,
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