Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Knoll Shores, NC

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 10 PM Thurs...No changes on this update as clear skies and light N'rly breezes persist over ENC this evening. Temps will continue to fall tonight given the good radiational cooling setup to the upper 50s across the coastal plain and mid 60s at the beaches. Excellent radiational cooling will set the stage for another round of fog and low stratus late tonight/early tomorrow morning as well. The inner coastal plain has the greatest chance of seeing low clouds and decreased visibility, but impacts may be felt all the way to the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 2:45 PM Thursday...Fog and low stratus should dissipate through the morning with mostly quiet conditions expected for the remainder of the period. Some hi-res guidance is picking up on a few light showers (mainly south of Highway 70) late tomorrow afternoon into the early evening as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Given the lack of moisture in the column and weak forcing, nothing more than scattered sprinkles to an isolated light shower is expected at this time, but this trend will be monitored.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 0400 Thursday...High pressure over the area through late week with a mostly dry FROPA expected Saturday and a wetter front early next week bringing the next best chance of rain.

Friday and Weekend...Upper ridging originating from the from the S still overhead but beginning to weaken as trough aloft approaches from the NW. SFC high pressure remains entrenched over NEern CONUS. Highs and lows right around Normal, low 80/60s split. Precip rotating about the offshore low has potential to skirt coastal areas Fri, but have opted to keep all mentionable PoPs just offshore, but this could change once we get deeper into the HiRes guidance timeframe.

Weekend...The weekend will start with a trough aloft working across the Great Lakes as the ridge that has been overhead erodes further. A cold front will slide across ENC this weekend, currently forecast to move through Saturday. The ridge, while weakening, will still keep moisture in the column lacking and with the greatest upper level support from the trough well to the N, continue to keep FROPA dry for the time being.

Next Week...Another front crosses through Monday, but this front is associated with a deeper upper level trough, and the column's moisture, while not anomalously high, will be greater than previous fronts. Carrying SChc-Chc PoPs for this period to cover the possibility of very light rain for FROPA. The airmass behind this stronger early week front will be markedly cooler, mid70/low50 split, some sheltered spots inland may even see MinTs in the 40s.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 715 PM Thurs...Primarily VFR conditions persist across ENC this evening outside of a small area of low level clouds out by FFA and Manteo. Expect primarily VFR ceilings and vis across ENC tonight as high pressure remains overhead allowing for clear skies and light to calm winds. However, given the clear skies and light winds, this will setup a great radiational cooling night once again allowing for a threat of patchy fog mainly west of Hwy 17. Will note this threat is lower than last nights so uncertainty is high of even seeing fog. Either way enough of a signal is there to include a mention of reduced vis at PGV/ISO between 08-12Z where 5 mile vis has been kept.
Regardless of fog development expect conditions to become VFR across all of ENC shortly after daybreak and persist into Fri evening as high pressure remains overhead keeping skies mo clear and winds light.

LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...VFR flight cats expected to prevail in drier airmass outside of early morning fog potential. A dry FROPA forecast Saturday which could bring reduced flight cats due to low level clouds. A stronger front crosses ENC early next week which will be our next best chance of rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1005 PM Thu... Only change to the forecast was to end the Small Crafts across our far northern waters as seas have fallen below 6 ft here. Otherwise the forecast remains unchanged.

Prev Disc...Latest obs show N-NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 5-7 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south. SCAs continue for the coastal waters north of Ocracoke for seas. NE swell from offshore low will slowly subside today. Seas across the northern waters expected to drop below 6 ft this evening, lingering across the central waters through the rest of the period.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...NEerly 10-15kt Fri through the weekend.
SCA seas for central waters likely continue through at least Saturday evening. Winds flip around to become SWerly late Sun ahead of the next front to pass through area waters early next week, currently forecasting SWerly 10-20kt S of the front, Nerly 10-15kt N of it.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 3 PM Thu...Minor coastal flooding will be possible around the times of high tide through the next few days. Increased wave action may lead to minor ocean overwash for vulnerable areas (mainly Hatteras Island) and strengthening northerly winds may lead to inundation up to one foot for areas along the coast and soundside areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound. In addition to this as we get into early next week, long period swell from distant hurricane Kirk will arrive to our shores and bring an increased risk for elevated rip currents, dangerous surf, and ocean overwash especially across the more vulnerable areas and areas where the dunes have been compromised along the Outer Banks and Crystal Coast.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.