Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Knoll Shores, NC

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 10 AM Wed...Init band of showers with a couple embedded storms moving through the Crystal Coast through the srn OBX this morning. Main backdoor front saggin soudh through the FA will meet up with the seabreeze across the srn coast and spark additional shower/storm development, while nrn and ern areas remain dry behind the front. Have tightened up the pop gradient for the rest of the day, keeping 50-60% pops for the swrn zones, and limiting them to 10-20% north and northeast. Any storms quickly wane this evening with loss of heating.

Prev disc
As of 0730 Wednesday
Minimal changes as the front slowly enters the forecast area. Its location is more readily defined along the coast where Nerly winds can be found across NOBX but it gets less defined and harder to find to the W. The front, which was expected to be slow to cross the FA has moved very little over the last few hours. Because of this, have had to slow down its progression in the grids once again. This means that a bulk of the area will still be considered "warm sectored" until the front completely reaches the coast later today. Ocnl showers will dot the region throughout the day, and thinking additional development of some storms will form across the srn coast and swrn zones in closer vcty of the cold front in tandem with seabreeze. Expecting storms to be sub severe as lapse rates not too impressive and shear marginal. However, stronger cells could lead to more impressive rainfall rates with ample PWATs in play, which has prompted a bump up in QPF for this seabreeze- cold front collision zone outlined roughly by HWY70 SWward through the HWY17 corridor this afternoon. QPF in this area ~3/4". High temps will be tempered down a bit but still warming into the mid/upper 70s where sun peaks through the clouds.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 0400 Wednesday...The front is expected to be slowly sinking Sward just off the Crystal Coast by midnight tonight, with all precip activity confined along and near the boundary offshore. Have dry forecast for most through the overnight, save some bleed over SChc-Chc pops along the immediate coast. NEerly CAA ensues behind the front, bringing Ts back into the 50s from N to S. The day's rainfall and cooling Ts will bring fog development into play for the SW corner of the FA in the early morning hours.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

Thursday through Saturday...There will be enough residual moisture and instability behind the front to keep a chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms across the area Thu and Fri. Trends in the guidance indicate only minimal coverage of any showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.
NBM PoPs look too high and have lowered them a little and if current trends continue in subsequent model runs then will continue to lower them in future forecasts. Yet another cold front is forecast to move through the area late Sat resulting in the threat for more widespread showers and storms. Highs Thu will be around 80, warming into the low 80s Fri and low to mid 80s Sat.

Sunday through Tuesday...Slightly cooler and drier air moves in as high pressure builds over the are from the north Sunday into early next week. Again NBM PoPs look to high for Sunday. Could see a lingering early morning shower, otherwise dry conditions should prevail. Will continue a dry weather forecast through mid next week though an isolated afternoon sea breeze shower or storm can't be completely ruled out. Highs Sunday will be in the low 70s, warming to the mid 70s Mon and low 80s Tue.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00z Thursday/...
As of 0700 Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA risk gradually shifts south into Wednesday afternoon - IFR/MVFR CIG risk later tonight through Wednesday AM

A slow-moving cold front will push south through ENC over the next 24 hours, accompanied by a risk of TSRA and sub VFR CIGs /VIS. Over the next few hours, the greatest TSRA risk looks to be focused in the general vicinity of coastal terminals, and this is where I have hit the TAFs the hardest. It appears that a renewed TSRA risk will develop by early to mid morning Wednesday as the airmass destabilizes along and ahead of the advancing front. This may especially be the case from KOAJ to KEWN, and I've added a PROB30 group at both terminals to reflect this potential.

Widespread CIGs lowering to MVFR and potentially IFR into Wednesday morning. This occurs as the cold front moves into the area with a cooler, and more moist, northeasterly flow, which tends to favor low CIGs .

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists through Saturday

A series of weak frontal boundaries coupled with sufficient moisture and instability will result in a chance for isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms Thu and Fri with brief sub VFR conditions possible. A strong front will cross the region late Sat with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and a better chance for a period of sub VFR conditions.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 0400 Wednesday...S-SW winds 10-20kt and seas generally 2-4ft. Front continues to slowly inch toward area waters this morning, finally crossing later this afternoon. Winds remain 10-20 SW S of the boundary with winds turning NEerly behind the front, but remain below SCA levels, 10-15kt. Best chance for showers and tstorms inland along front as it crosses and Central and Sern waters near GStream this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft conditions possible Saturday night and Sunday

High pressure builds in Thu with NE winds 10-15 kt Thu with winds veering to SE around 10 kt Fri. Sat ahead of the next cold front winds become S to SW 10-15 kt then shift to NW to N 15 to 20 gusting to 25 kt Sat night and Sun as high pressure builds back in behind the cold front. Seas are forecast 2-4 ft with some 5 footers across the outer central waters Thu through Sat cold front will push south through the waters Wed with winds becoming NE around 15 kt and continuing Thu. Winds are forecast to become SE around 10 kt Fri and S to SW 10-15 kt Sat ahead of the next cold front. Thu through Sat seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft with some 5 footers possible over the outer waters. Seas build to 5-8 ft Sunday in the stronger post frontal northerly flow.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.