Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Knoll Shores, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:23PM Monday July 13, 2020 5:14 PM EDT (21:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:03AMMoonset 12:58PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 259 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly this evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Knoll Shores, NC
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location: 34.69, -76.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 131937 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 337 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will cross the area this evening and move offshore tonight. The front will linger to our south through late week as Bermuda high pressure builds in from the east for the next several days.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 320 PM Monday . Active convection underway over the southern tier of the CWA at mid-afternoon with the stronger thunderstorms producing small hail. Atmosphere quite unstable across the region with surface-based CAPES as high as 4000 J/kg and LI's down to around -9, so the potential for locally damaging winds and larger hail will continue for a few more hours. Overall, the threat of scattered strong to potentially severe storms will continue until or shortly after 00z as vigorous mid- level shortwave crosses the area and moves offshore later this evening. Once the shortwave moves offshore, would expect a quick ending to the precipitation with loss of daytime heating. Skies clear overnight and with wet ground, some patchy fog is possible. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s by morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. As of 325 PM Monday . Weak ridging develops across the region tomorrow in the wake of the mid-level shortwave. Any convective development on Tuesday will be limited to sea breeze initiation and widely scattered, so will have just a slight chance (20%) PoP for Tuesday. Uniform temperatures expected for Tuesday with highs 90-92 in most areas, except mid/upper 80s Outer Banks.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 330 PM Mon . Upper level ridging continues over the Carolinas through midweek, again leaving the primary focus for afternoon convection on the sea breeze. Highs in the upper 80s to low 80s each day. Lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Late week, a surface low develops over the Ohio Valley and pushes northeastward through New England, eventually dragging a front into North Carolina for the weekend. Models generally agree on timing but that is about where the comparison ends as the GFS spins up the system quickly and is more robust throughout the rest of the run. In its wake, a relative surface high develops over the Ohio valley and helps push convection with the front into North Carolina. By contrast, the ECMWF solution is not as strong and doesn't develop this feature. Therefore it is weaker and slower with the surface low, and the associated front has a hard time making it into eastern NC. Will handle for now with chance PoPs until more details evolve. Regardless, it will continue to be warm with highs around 90 and lows in the mid 70s.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Tuesday/ . As of 1215 PM Monday . VFR conditions at early afternoon, but fairly widespread convection is possible over the next few hours with unstable airmass and a decent mid-level shortwave crossing the area. Continued with TEMPO for scattered thunderstorms with brief reduced vsbys/cigs in the late afternoon hours. All convection should wane fairly quickly by 02-03z, followed by a mid deck of clouds. With wet ground and light winds, some light fog (MVFR) is possible toward morning on Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/ . As of 4 PM Monday . VFR expected through much of the long term aside from sea breeze convection during the afternoons and an associated chance of fog during the early morning hours where rain occurs. By the end of the week attention will turn to an approaching front that may bring an increased chance of showers and storms to the area. With this will come a better chance for adverse aviation conditions.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/ . As of 340 PM Monday . Winds at late afternoon are SW 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts with seas 2-4 feet north and 3-5 feet central and southern waters. Based on trends, have cancelled all SCA's for area waters. Winds should generally be SW/W overnight and Tuesday with seas dropping back to 2-4 feet for most areas Tuesday as weak ridging builds over area waters.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/ . As of 400 PM Mon . A period of variable wind directions is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, then southerly winds should prevail through much of the rest of the forecast period with seas around 2 feet.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . RTE AVIATION . RTE/CTC MARINE . RTE/CTC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 7 mi75 min 85°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 15 mi75 min SSW 9.9 G 13 86°F 1010.6 hPa (-0.9)
41064 34 mi67 min SW 14 G 18 84°F 84°F1010.7 hPa
41159 34 mi49 min 84°F4 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC8 mi77 minSW 1110.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity88°F81°F80%1010.7 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC12 mi21 minS 66.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain72°F66°F82%1011.3 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi18 minS 19 G 280.75 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain and Breezy71°F63°F76%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW15S13SW9SW12SW9W8SW7SW7SW6SW7W6SW5W4W4W6SW4S5S6S8S10S13SW14S14S13
2 days agoS10S10S12S11S12SW10SW10SW8SW7SW6W7W6W3W3W46W8SW7SW10SW11SW11SW11S9S13

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:10 AM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:35 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.811.11.10.90.80.50.40.20.20.30.50.811.21.21.210.80.60.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Macon, USCG Station, North Carolina
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Fort Macon
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:07 AM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:15 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.52.72.62.21.71.20.80.50.611.52.12.633.12.92.41.91.410.80.91.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.