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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 237 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm pst this evening through late Monday night...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 237 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 22z or 2 pm pst, a 1025 mb was located 700 nm west of los angeles, and a 1011 mb low was located south of arizona.

FXUS66 KLOX 110038 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 438 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
10/129 PM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least the middle of the week with above normal high temperatures. The dry air, however, will allow colder than normal overnight lows in wind sheltered areas. Moderate Santa Ana winds may return Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...10/157 PM.

Santa Anas are winding down as a high pressure ridge moves in from the Pacific and gradients and winds aloft relax. Light offshore flow expected to remain Monday with some northeast breezes in the morning but otherwise just slightly cooler in most areas with some increasing high clouds.

Light offshore or very slightly onshore flow will continue through Tuesday with cooler but still above normal temps.

Models continue to indicate an inside slider trough dropping south through NV later Tuesday with a return to light to moderate offshore flow returning. However, pressure gradients remain on the lighter side, especially from the deterministic runs. The NAEFS solutions are a little stronger but still only in the -4 to -5 range. In addition, EPS solutions show very little wind at the usual windier spots so at this time the chances for any impactful northeast winds are on the lower side. Models do show some northeast flow aloft but peaking at only around 30kt at 850mb. So despite the favorable upper air pattern this next offshore event appears like it will be lighter and much less impactful than this most recent event. Humidities will remain on the lower side so with no marine layer and good radiational cooling overnight look for chilly morning temps, especially in the interior valleys.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...10/210 PM.

Light to moderate offshore flow expected to continue through next Sunday but without any upper support winds are expected to be below advisory levels. High pressure will follow the inside slider bringing warmer temperatures to the region with low humidities.
Highs will be 5-10 above normal through the period, though overnight lows will be chilly, especially in wind protected locations.

The next storm system on the horizon looks to be another tricky cut off low situation. Models at one time had been indicating a trough with decent moisture moving through the area over next weekend but more recent ensemble solutions have trended much slower with the arrival as ridging develops over western North America and stalls the eastward propagation of the trough near 140w, or roughly 1000nm west of Pt Conception. The official NBM forecast still has 15-30 pops across the area next Sunday but that's just factoring in some previous faster moving model solutions that are now much less in favor. So while rain chances from this system still look good, the much more likely arrival day now is into the following week, between Monday and Wednesday (Dec 18-20).

AVIATION
11/0035Z.

At 0000Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion or marine layer.

High confidence in VFR TAFs. The wind issues have dissipated.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. High confidence that any east wind component will be below 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
10/243 PM.

In the Outer Waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels thru much of tonight. For the northern outer waters (PZZ670), SCA level NW winds are expected late tonight thru late Mon night, with a 40% chance of SCA level NW winds Tue into Tue night. A bit further south (PZZ673), SCA level NW winds are expected very late tonight or early Mon thru Tue morning, with a 40% chance of SCA level winds Tue afternoon/evening. For the southern outer waters (PZZ676), SCA level NW winds are expected to develop Mon and cont thru Tue, with a 40% chance of SCA level winds Tue night. SCA conds are not expected Wed thru Thu.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level NW winds during the afternoon/evening hours Mon and Tue.
Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Wed.

In the inner waters S of Pt. Conception, there is a 30% chance of SCA level NE winds in these areas Wed morning. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Wed.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Avila
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Sun -- 12:43 AM PST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:42 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM PST     2.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:40 PM PST     -3.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:08 PM PST     0.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Avila, California, Tide feet

Port San Luis Wharf
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Sun -- 01:11 AM PST     1.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:42 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:33 AM PST     5.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM PST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:06 PM PST     3.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port San Luis Wharf, California, Tide feet

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