Casmalia, CA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Casmalia, CA

December 6, 2023 10:47 AM PST (18:47 UTC)
Sunrise 6:53AM   Sunset 4:52PM   Moonrise  12:45AM   Moonset 1:17PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 913 Am Pst Wed Dec 6 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 12 to 14 ft at 17 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning. Showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 13 to 14 ft dominant period 16 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 12 to 13 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 20 to 30 kt. Combined seas 12 to 13 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Fri..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 10 to 12 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 9 to 11 ft dominant period 13 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
Sun..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 913 Am Pst Wed Dec 6 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national 17z or 9 am pst, a 1030 mb high was located in sw wyoming, and a 1018 mb low was over the inner waters. Gusty N to nw winds and hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters through Friday, then gusty santa ana winds will affect nearshore waters Friday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casmalia, CA
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Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1021 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023

06/908 AM.

A weather disturbance will move into the region later today into Thursday, leading to some light showers along the Central Coast and northern mountains as well as widespread significant cooling through Friday. A return to gusty northerly winds is expected Thursday and Friday, strongest in the mountains, then shifting to a Santa Ana wind event this weekend with warming temperatures.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...06/928 AM.


A large stratus field has arrived along the Central Coast with some dense fog pushing a few miles inland. And there are a few patches of fog in the So Cal bight region but otherwise plenty of sunshine today. Gradients are still lightly offshore this morning but trending strongly onshore and temperatures are already responding with many areas starting off 10-15 degrees cooler.
Still may be an isolated 80 degree high today in the warmer valleys but most areas will top out in the low to mid 70s.

Main forecast issue is the upcoming northerly wind event Thursday into early Friday. Forecast pressure gradients to the north are over 6mb and winds aloft range from 40-60kt with strong subsidence over the mountains to drive the winds down to the surface. Given all those factors this looks like a solid high wind warning event for the mountains, including the higher portions of the Santa Ynez Range, and will likely issue by this afternoon. Will likely need advisories down through the western LA valleys and Santa Monicas as well. And while the winds will also push into West LA again, including Santa Monica and LAX areas, speeds will likely be below advisory levels.

Winds expected to drop off during the day Friday but then pick up again Friday night into Saturday as a strong Santa Ana wind event develops over Ventura and LA Counties.

***From Previous Discussion***

The weakening surface front will move across the region tonight and early Thu. As it does so, it will bring clouds and a chance of showers to SLO and northern SBA Counties tonight, with the chance of showers lingering across interior sections of SLO and SBA Counties and the mountains of Ventura County and northwestern L.A.
County Thu morning. Rainfall totals will be less than a tenth of an inch in most areas, except possibly up to one quarter of an inch across northwestern SLO County. Snow levels will lower to between 6500 and 7000 feet by early Thu morning, but little if any snow accumulation is expected. Across the remainder of the region, expect just some mid and high clouds tonight and Thu morning, with possibly some low clouds and fog across coastal sections of L.A. County. Skies should be partly cloudy to mostly sunny across the region Thu afternoon. Decent height falls, increased clouds and cooling at 850/950 mb should bring significant cooling to most areas Thu, with max temps down to near or possibly even slightly below normal levels.

The main story will be the wind behind the frontal system.
Increasing N-S gradients across SLO and SBA Counties tonight will cause NW to N winds to approach advisory levels across the southwestern coast of SBA County and the western Santa Ynez Range tonight.

After a temporary lull in the winds Thu morning, cold advection, increasing flow aloft and subsidence should cause widespread gusty NW to N winds to develop Thu afternoon across SLO and SBA Counties, in the mtns of Ventura County and through the I-5 Corridor, likely reaching advisory levels in many of these areas.
West winds will likely reach advisory levels in the Antelope Valley Thu afternoon and evening. Advisory level winds should persist into Fri morning in the mtns and across southern SBA County. There still looks to be about a 30 percent chance for local gusts to reach 60-70 mph in locations prone to northerly winds such as Montecito Hills and the I-5 corridor.

NW-N Winds will spread into other parts of the region Thu night, with gusty winds pushing into the valleys of western L.A. County, eastern Ventura County, into the Santa Monica Mountains, and into the West L.A. through Malibu area overnight. Advisory level winds are likely in many of these areas Thu night through early Fri afternoon. Winds should shift to a more northeasterly direction on Fri, which should cause winds to become focused in areas more typically favored by Santa Ana winds. Skies should be mostly clear Thu night and Fri. It will remain rather chilly on Fri, as low level cold advection overwhelms compressional warming of the downsloping winds in most areas.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...06/517 AM.

An upper ridge will amplify across the eastern Pacific Sat, then move into the region Sun, causing heights and thicknesses across the area to rise each day. Moderate to borderline strong offshore flow will cont Sat, then offshore gradients will weaken a bit Sun.
Expect gusty NE winds (probably at or above advisory levels) across much of VTU County and western/northern L.A. County Fri night/Sat, with less in the way of winds Sat night/Sun. Skies will likely be mostly clear. There should be a few degrees of warming each day, with temps up to above normal levels in most areas.

A trough will move into the eastern Pac late Sun, then into the West Coast Mon. Offshore gradients will weaken and then turn onshore Mon afternoon. Expect some high clouds across the region, but a return of low clouds is not likely. There should be some cooling Mon, especially on the coastal plain. The trough will sharpen over the western U.S. Tue, with sharpening more prominent on the operational run of the EC. This will bring cooling to the region, with another round of gusty NW-N winds likely in some areas.


At 1716Z at KLAX, there was a weak surface based inversion with a top at 1400 feet with a maximum temperature of 19 C.

Low to moderate confidence in all coastal/valley TAFs, high confidence in others. Timing of onset of cigs may be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a chance of light rain showers up north this evening. The latest guidance seems to suggest that marine clouds will return to the central coast and the LA coastal sections, and possibly spread into the LA valleys late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Other coastal sections are not expected to see any marine clouds, but again the overall scenario is not a high confidence situation.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 18z TAF. Onset of cigs may be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 20% chance of VFR conditions through the period. There is a 30% chance of an east wind component of 5 kts 09Z-17Z Thurs.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 18z TAF. There is a 40-50 percent chance of VFR conditions through the period.

06/946 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in forecast.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas will continue into Saturday.
Winds are expected to remain below SCA levels through this morning with a 60% chance of SCA level winds returning to the waters south of Point Conception as early as this afternoon. Then, winds will expand across all the outer waters overnight tonight and last through Friday. There is a 50% chance of Gale Force winds for the waters south of Point Conception Thursday morning into Friday afternoon, though lower confidence in exact timing.
There is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds continuing through Saturday decreasing to 20% chance of SCA winds on Sunday, with a brief decrease below advisory levels possible Friday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in forecast. SCA level seas are expected to last through Friday.
Winds are expected to be below advisory levels through Thursday morning, followed by a 30-40% chance of winds increasing to SCA levels Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. There is a 20% chance of SCA level NE winds nearshore Friday night into Saturday morning.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in forecast. There is a 60% chance of NW SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel this evening, expanding to the western portions of the all the southern inner waters by Thursday afternoon through evening. Lower confidence in the winds starting late Thursday night through Saturday. There is a 20-30% chance of N to NE SCA level winds Friday night into Saturday morning from Malibu to Santa Monica, and possibly extending as far south to Catalina Island briefly.
Winds will shift more NE Friday night, with a 30-40% chance of at least SCA winds from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island as well as a 20% chance from Orange County out to Catalina Island.

06/1018 AM.

The next long period NW swell (18-21 seconds) will affect the coastal waters through Thursday. Expect 10 to 14 feet for Central Coast beaches, 5 to 8 feet with local sets to 9 feet for Ventura County beaches, and elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet for LA County beaches. There is a 20% chance of high surf of 10 feet lingering into Friday afternoon along the Central Coast beaches. Surf heights will be highest across west and northwest facing beaches.
Due to low astronomical tides, any coastal flooding will be very minimal.

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Friday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
46259 11 mi21 min 60°F16 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 23 mi27 min WNW 9.7G16 60°F15 ft
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 32 mi21 min 61°F15 ft
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 42 mi21 min 60°F10 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 43 mi47 min W 14G17 56°F 60°F30.16
CPXC1 44 mi51 min NW 6 56°F 30.1554°F

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Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KVBG38 sm41 minWNW 085 smMostly Cloudy Mist 59°F54°F82%30.15

Wind History from VBG
(wind in knots)

Tide / Current for Point Arguello, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Point Arguello, California, Tide feet

Tide / Current for Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California, Tide feet

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest   

Vandenberg AFB, CA,

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