Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:35PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach town, NC
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location: 34.71, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 081751 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 151 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of weak disturbances will move across the area into Thursday with a mainly dry cold front pushing through the area late Thursday. Cooler high pressure fills in late in the week before a stronger frontal system impacts the region Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1010 AM Wed . Main change was to bump PoPs up a category for the coastal plain with good agreement in the 00z CAM suite and suitable antecedent conditions this morning for building instability. Satellite shows well-defined outflow boundary from northern MCS quickly marching south across the region. Only sensible weather change from this feature will be a brief increase in cloudiness and a period of increased northerly winds, but winds will quickly switch back to westerly before noon.

Prev disc . Skies are clear across the CWA at daybreak with temperatures in the mid 60s. Leading edge of convective complex is weakening west of the Richmond, VA area and should dissipate before reaching our area. With subsidence ahead of the oncoming front today, expect generally sunny skies. Coupled with the SW wind flow, temperatures should warm well into the 80s away from the coast, as thickness values support some mid/upper 80s inland this afternoon. The convective complex is likely to refire later in the afternoon over our far northern tier and move south toward the coast during the evening hours, but for the bulk of the MHX CWA, dry conditions are expected through at least late afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/. As of 355 AM Wednesday . With temperatures pushing well into the 80s, especially inland, CAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg will characterize the pre-storm environment ahead of convective complex associated with a surface trough diving south into the region by early evening. Almost all of the high-resolution models produce a broken line of convection in the evening, gradually ending by midnight or so. Biggest question is coverage of convection and have kept PoPs in the 20-30 percent range for the evening, with the higher values over the northern tier. A few strong wind gusts and hail may accompany the stronger storms and SPC has the entire CWA in the Marginal Threat zone. Once precipitation ends after midnight, lows will drop into mainly the lower 60s with leftover convective debris clouds likely.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 330 AM Wed . A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday ahead of a cold front that will cross the area later in the day. Drier and cooler conditions are then on tap for Friday into Saturday. The next storm system will impact the area Sunday into Monday with high pressure returning thereafter.

Thursday through Saturday . What remains of a convective line that will move across central VA Wednesday night could reach NE NC Thursday morning, prompting a few showers and thunderstorms to develop within the modest band of pre-frontal moisture convergence over the area. Though the best forcing is expected before peak heating, 1000+ J/kg could still be in place, and a few of the storms could become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and hail possible. Drying occurs immediately ahead of the cold front, which will cross the area with little fanfare beyond a wind shift through the later afternoon and early evening. Low level thickness values support highs returning into the mid to upper 80s, with a few locations reaching 90 not out of the question, ahead of the front Thursday afternoon.

High pressure building into the area behind the front will keep dry conditions in place Friday and Saturday, with temps below normal both days. Efficient radiational cooling is expected Friday night, with lows dipping into the 30s, and the potential for frost away from the beaches Saturday morning.

Sunday through Monday . Longer range guidance continues to converge on the solution of a potent H5 shortwave lifting from the south central US across the Midwest Sunday, with the associated complex surface low crossing the Tennessee Valley and riding up the Appalachian Mountains through Monday. This will likely result in a warm front crossing the area Sunday, with strong WAA on the back of a 50+ kt LLJ Sunday night into Monday. Given this wind profile and the potential for instability to quickly build, severe weather is a concern Sunday into Monday, as are strong gradient winds, especially along the coast. Details of the severe threat will be refined in the coming days, but currently carrying the threat for thunderstorms Sunday through Monday in the official forecast.

Current expectation is that a cold front will move through Monday, with generally dry conditions behind it for Tuesday. However, upper level heights could continue to fall, and dry conditions are not a guarantee Monday night into Tuesday as broad lift could occur across the region. Regardless, much cooler temps are expected Tuesday through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term /through 12Z Thursday/ . As of 150 PM Wed . Mainly clear skies prevail across the terminals today with only some light cirrus to speak of, and this should hold for the rest of the afternoon with a few diurnal cumulus at around 4-5 kft. Convection expected to fire ahead of a cold front across northern VA this hour, moving from north to south. Coverage is still uncertain enough to preclude explicit TEMPO groups this cycle, but did mention VCTS from 23-04z with localized vis/cig restrictions possible in storms. A few could be strong particularly for KPGV/KISO.

Another round of showers and storms is possible ahead of an advancing cold front early tomorrow morning before sweeping offshore before midday. Strong and gusty westerly winds expected with this passage with gusts of 25-30 kt possible especially for coastal plain.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ . As of 330 AM Wed . VFR prevails through Saturday. A prolonged period of flight restrictions and LLWS is possible beginning Sunday as a strong frontal system impacts the area.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 1010 AM . Outflow boundary from remnant MCS to the north is crossing the waters now with a northerly wind shift with a few gusts to 25 kt at times. Predominant westerly flow is expected to resume before noon. No changes to standing SCA.

Prev disc . W/SW winds currently on the coastal waters, with gusts to 27 knots at Diamond Buoy, 25 knots at the buoy 30 miles south of New River Inlet, but mostly 15 knots or less elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 foot range. SW winds will remain gusty today into this evening, before subsiding in the wake of surface trough with scattered convection later this evening and overnight. However, seas will remain rough and SCA's continue in effect on the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet until 2 AM Thursday.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ . As of 330 AM Wed . Breezy southwesterly flow prevails through Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will cross the waters Thursday evening. Winds shift abruptly to breezy NW behind the cold front, then gradually wane into Friday as cooler high pressure builds in. A strong frontal system will impact the area beginning Sunday, bringing the potential stronger winds.

Seas of 4-6 ft prevail Thursday in mainly southerly windswell, with seas subsiding gradually Thursday night into Saturday as the windswell fades. Seas increase quickly beginning later Sunday as the next strong frontal system begins to impact the area.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 3 AM Wed . A perigean spring tide will bring elevated tidal levels today through the end of the week. Minor inundation of very low lying areas is possible around the times of primarily the evening high tide cycles, especially near inlets and along the beaches south of Cape Lookout Tuesday, then across all of eastern NC Wednesday into late week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC/MS SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . CB AVIATION . CB/MS MARINE . CTC/CB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 3 mi59 min N 7 G 9.9 78°F 65°F1006.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi89 min WSW 8.9 G 13 71°F 1007.1 hPa (-0.6)71°F
41159 36 mi29 min 68°F4 ft
41064 37 mi201 min W 18 G 25 67°F 69°F1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC4 mi91 minNNW 1110.00 miFair81°F62°F53%1006.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi35 minWNW 12 G 1810.00 miFair83°F57°F43%1006 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SW10S10S10SW7SW10SW10SW10SW13SW10SW12SW9SW10SW10SW9SW8SW7SW8W11SW10SW9W6N11SW8
1 day agoSW16SW14SW15SW18SW17N12
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2 days agoE6E8SE7E8E6E5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW8----SW14SW15

Tide / Current Tables for Morehead City, North Carolina
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Morehead City
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:41 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:47 AM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:55 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.4-0.2-0.30.10.91.92.83.43.53.22.41.40.4-0.2-0.5-0.20.61.62.73.53.93.83.2

Tide / Current Tables for Channel Marker Lt. #59, North Carolina
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Channel Marker Lt. #59
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:39 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:48 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:52 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:10 PM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.70.1-0.4-0.4-0.10.51.21.92.32.42.21.60.90.2-0.2-0.4-0.10.41.11.92.42.72.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.