Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic Beach, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 PM Fri...Sub-tropical upper level ridging continues to amplify over the southeastern CONUS this afternoon as strong southern stream shortwave digs into the Four Corners region. At the surface, high pressure has moved offshore ushering in warm south to southwesterly flow. Afternoon highs today have reached the upper 70s to around 80, except mid 70s OBX.

Little change in this pattern is expected tonight as high anchors offshore and mid-level heights continue to gradually rise. Southerly winds will remain elevated overnight at around 5-10 kt, keeping low-levels mixed and temps much milder in the upper 50s to around 60. Despite steadily increasing moisture, wind will keep fog risk near zero.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 300 PM Fri...Upper level pattern remains stagnant tomorrow as the ridge holds strong over the Southeast and high pressure offshore expands westward across the Carolinas and Gulf states. Another breezy afternoon is expected under primarily sunny skies, but temps will continue to rise. Forecast average 1000-850 mb thicknesses of near 1400 m with largely unimpeded insolation points to highs in the mid to upper 80s inland, mid to upper 70s along the beach.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal warmth this weekend

- Wavy frontal boundary may allow for a more unsettled period next week, especially Tuesday-Wednesday

Synoptically, the surface and upper level pattern through next week more resembles that of a mid to late summer setup, with weak flow aloft and southwest Atlantic ridging dominating. However, it's a summer time pattern with early spring instability and moisture (often lower than the summer).

Over the weekend, then, it's expected that the modest increase in low-mid level moisture won't be sufficient to overcome the very warm temps aloft and strong cap in place. This should keep the risk of convection at a minimum, both along the daily seabreeze and along a front that is forecast to dip south into the area Sunday. As we move into next week, upper ridging is forecast to break down/flatten some, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to develop across the Mid- Atlantic region. Within this flow, a weak frontal boundary is forecast to waffle back and forth between North Carolina and Virginia. As is to be expected, medium range guidance differs quite a bit on the placement of this front on any given day next week.
With the ridge breaking down, temps aloft aren't expected to be quite as warm, which should support a weaker capping inversion. With continued low-level moisture advection off the Atlantic, and a weaker cap, there should be at least a modest increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms at points next week, with the risk likely focused wherever the front resides on that particular day. As mentioned above, we will have summer time deep layer shear (15- 25kt), which doesn't favor much of a severe weather potential.
Machine learning guidance also favors a lower risk of severe weather next week. Given the ongoing drought conditions, though, any moisture will be welcomed. While guidance differ on where the front will be each day next week, the most solid signal for convection appears to be in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

By Sunday, the warmth continues, but a front dipping into the area may lead to temperatures not being quite as warm, especially along the OBX and Albemarle Sound vicinity thanks to a cooler onshore flow. The coastal plan and Crystal Coast areas still look to be above normal.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Sat/...
As of 300 PM Friday...High confidence in VFR conditions through the period as strong high pressure offshore remains in control.
Conditions tomorrow likely to resemble today with breezy south to southwesterly winds Sat afternoon ranging from 20-25 kt, especially inland and along portions of OBX. With increasing subsidence aloft, clouds are likely to be few and far between tomorrow but still safely at VFR levels. Elevated winds overnight at 5-10 kt preclude any visibility issues.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty SW winds Saturday - TSRA and sub-VFR risk likely to return next week

VFR conditions are likely on Sunday. However, by next week, a wavy frontal boundary will waffle back and forth between North Carolina and Virginia. Along this front, there will be a risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub VFR conditions. The timing of the front, and when the greatest impact to aviation will be, is less certain. Prior to then, the other main aviation impact looks to be gusty winds on Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Marine conditions remain quiet for now across area waters as high pressure sits offshore. Regional observations show south winds of 10-15 kt with seas around 1-2 feet, although am seeing some funneling across northern sounds and rivers with isolated gusts up to 25 kt at times.

Tightening thermal gradient tomorrow will see an uptick in winds tomorrow, reaching up to 20 kt sustained and gusts to 25-30 kt by midday and through the evening especially north of Cape Lookout. Small Craft has been hoisted for all offshore waters north of Cape Lookout, as well all soundside waters from Pamlico Sound northward. Inland rivers were excluded, although strong diurnal gusts over land may briefly bleed over waters.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Wavy frontal boundary next week with less certainty regarding winds, waves, and thunderstorms

On Sunday, a front is forecast to dip south into the area with a reduced gradient. This front will lead to a northerly wind shift, though. This front then waffles north to south each day next week, making the wind forecast less certain on any given day. That front will also carry a modest increase in the risk of thunderstorms, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Seas then lay down to 2-3 ft by Sunday. Seas next week are less certain and will be dependent on where the front is each day, and how strong the gradient is around it on any given day.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-150-152-154-156.