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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 657 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Rain likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming w. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 657 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure will remain centered over the carolinas today, gradually sliding off the coast tonight. A series of low pressure systems will impact the area Friday into early next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 010013 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 713 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to ridge in the area from the west tonight before shifting offshore on Friday. A warm front will lift into the area later Friday, ushering in an unsettled pattern that will continue into early next week as a series of low pressure systems impact the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 700 PM Thurs...Localized ridge of high pressure will remain over the area tonight, while a weak coastal trough continues across the Gulf Stream. The coastal trough will meander closer to the Hatteras Island overnight, but expect any shower activity to remain offshore.

Though areas of thick cirrus have moved across the southern half of the forecast area this evening, it is looking likely that these clouds will soon push offshore with skies remaining mostly clear for the majority of the early morning hours. As a result, stronger cooling is expected as we radiate more efficiently overnight. Have lows reaching the low to mid 30s for most of the inland areas, with the coolest spots likely along and north of the US 64 corridor. Along the coast, winds will remain weak to calm most of the night and temps should reach the upper 30s to low 40s.

Additionally, weak low level moisture advection will develop overnight and work in combination with the strong cooling to bring a threat for fog to the area, with the best chances likely across the Inner Banks and other inland coastal sites where the greatest intersection of this will be.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
As of 345 PM Thu...Surface ridging will weaken and shift offshore Friday with broad low pressure crossing the Midwest bringing an increasing southerly gradient/WAA/moisture advection, with gradually falling heights aloft as well. Deep moisture transport increases through the day, with cloudy conditions expected by the afternoon. Lingering mid level dry air will keep POPs low through the morning, but ample moisture will be in place by the afternoon for precip to begin as soon as stronger forcing arrives, which likely wont be until after sunset. As such, POPs mainly less than 20% through the day, with the timing of the arrival of the first showers near a warm front lifting onshore potentially later in the afternoon being the most uncertain aspect of the forecast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 3:30 AM Thursday...The long term pattern is warmer than average and unsettled with multiple opportunities for rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder.

Friday night - Saturday...The long term begins with a southeast ridge and multiple mid-level shortwaves passing over the area.
At the surface, a warm front will be stretched across the NC coast. This front, along with strong mid and upper-level winds, could be enough forcing to support showers across ENC Friday night. PoP chances will be higher on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. A slight chance of thunder is also possible along the immediate coast. Highs will be around 60-70.

Sunday...Heights fall as an upper trough approaches from the west and a mid-level trough moves across the Ohio River Valley.
A surface low will move northeast across the Great Lakes and drag a cold front across ENC late Sunday into Monday and bring increased PoPs and chances for thunder. Highs will be 60-70 once again.

Monday...A much stronger upper jet moves overhead as the gradient tightens between a southeast ridge and another trough moving east.
These features, along with a surface trough, will support continued slight chance to chance PoPs. Temps will be a few degrees cooler behind the front (low 60s) and will continue to gradually cool down through the rest of the week.

Tuesday - Wednesday...Things become more quiet behind Monday's surface trough and will remain dry through the rest of the period.
Highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s-40s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Evening/...
As of 700 PM Thurs...VFR conditions are present this evening across the airspace with high pressure remaining over the area.
Overnight there will be a risk of some patchy fog development due to strong cooling and some weak low level moisture advection. Current guidance shows most of the fog potential to be east of the TAF sites (across the Inner Banks and inland coastal areas), but some patchy MVFR level fog could reach KEWN and KOAJ before sunrise. Whatever fog that forms will quickly dissipate tomorrow morning, with VFR conditions then persisting through tomorrow with increasing high clouds. Late tomorrow, moisture will increase ahead of the next frontal system and sub-VFR conditions are likely to form at some point tomorrow night.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3:45 PM Thursday...Multiple chances for sub-VFR conditions are possible during the long term. There will be chances for rain each day, but Saturday and Sunday pose the best risk for heavier showers and a few rumbles of thunder (especially nearer to the coast). Winds will generally be southerly to southwesterly 5-10 kt with stronger gusts (15-20 kt) on Monday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 4 PM Thu...High pressure ridging in from offshore will keep mainly light winds in place tonight. This ridge shifts offshore Friday, with southerly winds increasing to moderate by midday and persisting through the afternoon. Seas mainly remain around 1-3 ft overnight and tomorrow morning, before beginning to increase later in the afternoon as southerly windswell begins to increase.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3:45 PM Thursday...Winds will be southerly to southwesterly at 10-20 kt through Sunday. On Monday, SSW winds increase from south to north through the day reaching 20- 25 kt with gusts around 30 kt by Monday night. Seas will be 2-4 ft Friday and increase to 3 to 5 ft Sunday through Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Morehead City
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Thu -- 03:04 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:05 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:52 PM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Morehead City, North Carolina, Tide feet

Channel Marker Lt. #59
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Thu -- 04:04 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:36 AM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:05 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:56 PM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Channel Marker Lt. #59, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,