Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fence Lake, NM
December 11, 2023 4:24 PM MST (23:24 UTC)
Sunrise 7:12AM Sunset 5:03PM Moonrise 5:59AM Moonset 3:55PM
Area Discussion for - Flagstaff, AZ
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KFGZ 112127 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 227 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Rain and snow showers are forecast over eastern Arizona Wednesday into Thursday. Accumulations will remain light, and no other significant weather is expected through the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
The outlook has not changed much since yesterday.
Mostly fair skies, light winds, and mild temperatures will continue. The exception is this Wednesday and Thursday, when a low pressure disturbance will sweep through Arizona. Model guidance has come into pretty good agreement regarding this system. The system will bolster our winds just a tad, wrap in a bit of moisture, and cool our temperatures to near normal values for the time of year. Expect a southwest breeze tomorrow, with gusts remaining less than 30 mph for most locations. On Wednesday, winds weaken, but precipitation chances arrive. Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will develop by the afternoon, along and east of a line from Monument Valley to the eastern Mogollon Rim.
Any sort of significant accumulations will remain confined to the highest terrain, including the Chuska Mountains and White Mountains. An inch or two of snow in total is possible above 8000 feet in those areas. A few snow showers are possible as far west as Flagstaff, but any accumulations will be minimal. Rainfall amounts in the lower elevations are not expected to exceed a tenth of an inch. Even though this system looks low- impact, some travel troubles may be encountered on roads like Indian Route 13 over the Buffalo Pass. On Thursday, precipitation exits and winds become northeasterly. These winds are expected to stay light outside of locations immediately downslope of the Mogollon Rim.
Warmer temperatures will set in by the weekend, which will feel very pleasant.
The precipitation forecast is subject to change based on the precise path of the incoming system and the amount of moisture that sneaks in from the east. Even though its associated positive vorticity advection will produce plenty of lift, forecast accumulations remain low because the system is so moisture- starved. It arrives in Arizona as a cutoff low, south of a strong ridge of high pressure, with no good source of moisture. Far ahead of the low pressure center, in New Mexico and Texas, robust moistening will occur as a surge of Gulf of Mexico air pushes north and west. Some of that moisture will get wrapped into Arizona, but not enough to produce the copious amounts of precipitation that areas in New Mexico and Texas will likely receive. Most of northern Arizona will have to continue to wait until any substantial snow falls. Things might look better around Christmastime.
AVIATION
Monday 11/18Z through Tuesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions and light winds.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday 12/18Z through Thursday 14/18Z
Localized MVFR conditions will be possible in SHRA/SHSN along and east of a KBDG- KSOW line after 18Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.
Look for S winds 5-15 kts Tuesday, becoming NE-SE on Wednesday.
FIRE WEATHER
Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry, with above normal daytime temperatures through Tuesday. The higher elevations will actually be warmer than some lower elevations, due to persistent inversions. South through southwest winds 5-15 mph over the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures cool and winds become north through northeast Wednesday, with a chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly for the the eastern zones.
Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures remain cool for Thursday and then rebound a bit Friday and Saturday. Winds northeasterly 5-15 mph through the period, stronger gusts downwind of higher terrain.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 227 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Rain and snow showers are forecast over eastern Arizona Wednesday into Thursday. Accumulations will remain light, and no other significant weather is expected through the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
The outlook has not changed much since yesterday.
Mostly fair skies, light winds, and mild temperatures will continue. The exception is this Wednesday and Thursday, when a low pressure disturbance will sweep through Arizona. Model guidance has come into pretty good agreement regarding this system. The system will bolster our winds just a tad, wrap in a bit of moisture, and cool our temperatures to near normal values for the time of year. Expect a southwest breeze tomorrow, with gusts remaining less than 30 mph for most locations. On Wednesday, winds weaken, but precipitation chances arrive. Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will develop by the afternoon, along and east of a line from Monument Valley to the eastern Mogollon Rim.
Any sort of significant accumulations will remain confined to the highest terrain, including the Chuska Mountains and White Mountains. An inch or two of snow in total is possible above 8000 feet in those areas. A few snow showers are possible as far west as Flagstaff, but any accumulations will be minimal. Rainfall amounts in the lower elevations are not expected to exceed a tenth of an inch. Even though this system looks low- impact, some travel troubles may be encountered on roads like Indian Route 13 over the Buffalo Pass. On Thursday, precipitation exits and winds become northeasterly. These winds are expected to stay light outside of locations immediately downslope of the Mogollon Rim.
Warmer temperatures will set in by the weekend, which will feel very pleasant.
The precipitation forecast is subject to change based on the precise path of the incoming system and the amount of moisture that sneaks in from the east. Even though its associated positive vorticity advection will produce plenty of lift, forecast accumulations remain low because the system is so moisture- starved. It arrives in Arizona as a cutoff low, south of a strong ridge of high pressure, with no good source of moisture. Far ahead of the low pressure center, in New Mexico and Texas, robust moistening will occur as a surge of Gulf of Mexico air pushes north and west. Some of that moisture will get wrapped into Arizona, but not enough to produce the copious amounts of precipitation that areas in New Mexico and Texas will likely receive. Most of northern Arizona will have to continue to wait until any substantial snow falls. Things might look better around Christmastime.
AVIATION
Monday 11/18Z through Tuesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions and light winds.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday 12/18Z through Thursday 14/18Z
Localized MVFR conditions will be possible in SHRA/SHSN along and east of a KBDG- KSOW line after 18Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.
Look for S winds 5-15 kts Tuesday, becoming NE-SE on Wednesday.
FIRE WEATHER
Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry, with above normal daytime temperatures through Tuesday. The higher elevations will actually be warmer than some lower elevations, due to persistent inversions. South through southwest winds 5-15 mph over the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures cool and winds become north through northeast Wednesday, with a chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly for the the eastern zones.
Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures remain cool for Thursday and then rebound a bit Friday and Saturday. Winds northeasterly 5-15 mph through the period, stronger gusts downwind of higher terrain.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Wind History from SJN
(wind in knots)
Albuquerque, NM,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE