Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fence Lake, NM
July 26, 2024 5:37 PM MDT (23:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 10:50 PM Moonset 11:15 AM |
FXUS65 KFGZ 262317 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
Look for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially along and south of I-40. Over the weekend, a downward trend in storm activity is expected for much of northern Arizona, as a drier air mass moves in from the west. Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Outflows/thunderstorms now pushing south and/or southwest of the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns this afternoon, about as expected. Training could lead to Flash Flooding, especially south of the Mogollon Rim. Increased shear and the dry layer presence aloft may also lead to isolated larger hail development, again, most likely south of the Mogollon Rim.
After a good chance of showers and storms today, look for a near shutdown of monsoon activity through at least early next week with any remaining activity being relegated to our east-central zones.
Saturday through Wednesday, the high pushes southward under the influence of a passing trough to the north. Drier air will push across the area with a near shutdown of showers and storms except for the area along and south of a Heber to St. Johns line. The approach of the trough will strengthen pressure gradients with afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph, gusting 25 to 30 mph on Saturday/Sunday. From Monday into Wednesday, troughing will begin to weaken and high pressure gradually reemerge with weakening pressure gradients and associated afternoon winds. Look for slightly cooler daytime temperatures for much of the period, as the influence of the high aloft abates.
Thursday and the end of next week, forecast models show the last of the Pacific Northwest troughs lifting and moving to the east with the high amplifying back over the western states. If this pattern emerges the door would once again open to moist low-level flow from over the Gulf of California and thunderstorm outflow from over northwest Mexico/southeast Arizona to push moisture back northward across Arizona. However, any additional trough energy dipping down from Canada would delay the northward shift of the high.
AVIATION
Saturday 27/00Z through Sunday 28/00Z...Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA persist through 03Z, tapering thereafter.
Mainly VFR conditions can be expected through the period with MVFR/IFR VIS likely in stronger storms. Calm conditions overnight with drier conditions likely on Saturday.-SHRA/-TSRA will be confined to the White Mountains region. Outside of erratic outflow winds of up to 30 kts near storms, expect westerly winds 10-20 kts for the remainder of the afternoon, becoming southwest 15-25 kts by 18Z Saturday..
OUTLOOK
Sunday 28/00Z through Tuesday 30/00Z
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend as a drying trend develops.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the White Mountains each afternoon. Anticipate west-southwest winds 15-20 kts in the afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Saturday and Sunday...A drying trend for this period. Any showers/ thunderstorms mainly confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim/southern Apache County. Afternoon southwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph both days.
Monday through Wednesday...The drying trend continues, with minimum humidity falling to 10 to 25 percent. Precipitation chances limited to southern Navajo and Apache counties. Afternoon southwesterly winds decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
Look for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially along and south of I-40. Over the weekend, a downward trend in storm activity is expected for much of northern Arizona, as a drier air mass moves in from the west. Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Outflows/thunderstorms now pushing south and/or southwest of the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns this afternoon, about as expected. Training could lead to Flash Flooding, especially south of the Mogollon Rim. Increased shear and the dry layer presence aloft may also lead to isolated larger hail development, again, most likely south of the Mogollon Rim.
After a good chance of showers and storms today, look for a near shutdown of monsoon activity through at least early next week with any remaining activity being relegated to our east-central zones.
Saturday through Wednesday, the high pushes southward under the influence of a passing trough to the north. Drier air will push across the area with a near shutdown of showers and storms except for the area along and south of a Heber to St. Johns line. The approach of the trough will strengthen pressure gradients with afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph, gusting 25 to 30 mph on Saturday/Sunday. From Monday into Wednesday, troughing will begin to weaken and high pressure gradually reemerge with weakening pressure gradients and associated afternoon winds. Look for slightly cooler daytime temperatures for much of the period, as the influence of the high aloft abates.
Thursday and the end of next week, forecast models show the last of the Pacific Northwest troughs lifting and moving to the east with the high amplifying back over the western states. If this pattern emerges the door would once again open to moist low-level flow from over the Gulf of California and thunderstorm outflow from over northwest Mexico/southeast Arizona to push moisture back northward across Arizona. However, any additional trough energy dipping down from Canada would delay the northward shift of the high.
AVIATION
Saturday 27/00Z through Sunday 28/00Z...Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA persist through 03Z, tapering thereafter.
Mainly VFR conditions can be expected through the period with MVFR/IFR VIS likely in stronger storms. Calm conditions overnight with drier conditions likely on Saturday.-SHRA/-TSRA will be confined to the White Mountains region. Outside of erratic outflow winds of up to 30 kts near storms, expect westerly winds 10-20 kts for the remainder of the afternoon, becoming southwest 15-25 kts by 18Z Saturday..
OUTLOOK
Sunday 28/00Z through Tuesday 30/00Z
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend as a drying trend develops.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the White Mountains each afternoon. Anticipate west-southwest winds 15-20 kts in the afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Saturday and Sunday...A drying trend for this period. Any showers/ thunderstorms mainly confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim/southern Apache County. Afternoon southwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph both days.
Monday through Wednesday...The drying trend continues, with minimum humidity falling to 10 to 25 percent. Precipitation chances limited to southern Navajo and Apache counties. Afternoon southwesterly winds decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSJN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSJN
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSJN
Wind History graph: SJN
(wind in knots)
Albuquerque, NM,
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