Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fence Lake, NM
July 2, 2024 11:31 PM MDT (05:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 1:57 AM Moonset 4:52 PM |
FXUS65 KFGZ 030347 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 847 PM MST Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drier conditions will set in on Wednesday with thunderstorm chances confined to the White Mountains. From Thursday onward, expect dry weather and increasing temperatures. A very hot Fourth of July weekend is on tap and will likely continue into next week.
UPDATE
The latest radar trends indicate isolated thunderstorms developing near Highway 264 east of Polacca. As a result, updated the POPs to indicate isolated thunderstorms for eastern portions of Hopi and parts of Navajo Nation along and south of Highway 264.
This activity should end after midnight. Otherwise, the remaining forecast is on track.
PREV DISCUSSION /407 PM MST/
Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist across southern portions of Navajo and Apache counties this afternoon as a drier, more stable airmass moves in from the north and west. This activity should continue through early this evening, tapering by sunset. Slight chances for isolated storms are forecast on Wednesday, but only across the White Mountains.
A significant warming and drying period takes shape on Wednesday and will continue through this upcoming holiday weekend. High confidence exists in a strong high pressure ridge building off the West Coast on Wednesday and then migrating towards the east gradually through the weekend. Surface to mid-level flow has already shifted to the west-northwest this afternoon, becoming more northerly and breezier to end the week. This synoptic setup is a monsoon killer as drier, northerly flow will push moisture out of the Southwest altogether. Afternoon humidity will likely plummet by Thursday with widespread single digits on Friday.
Humidity looks to remain below 15% each afternoon into next week with relatively poor recoveries overnight.
As humidity and moisture decrease, temperatures on the other hand will be increasing during this time as high pressure strengthens.
Daytime highs of 5-10 degrees above average (it happens to be the warmest time of the year climatologically speaking) return on Thursday and continue through the weekend. Given the high confidence in the temperature forecast and the impacts this anticipated heat will likely have during the Fourth of July weekend, Excessive Heat Watches have been issued for our lower valley locations across Yavapai County and from the Grand Canyon to Marble Canyon for Thursday and Friday. Heat impacts will likely be felt across all of northern Arizona during this time with a high to extreme UV Index thanks to minimal cloud cover expected each day through Sunday.
As we enter into next week, confidence remains on the higher side in this high pressure system sticking around for the time being.
Conditions look to remain dry and hot through Tuesday, however, ensemble guidance indicates moisture beginning to sneak back in from the south and east by the middle of next week. We also will have to keep our eye on Hurricane Beryl, currently causing major problems for those in the Caribbean. Even though it is very far out, long range model guidance shows the storm taking a west- northwest track and could impact southern Texas. This potential scenario would result in an influx of moisture from the southeast.
Of course this all depends on the overall track of the hurricane and the strength of the high pressure system over the West. Lots of things to think about and watch. Until then, plan on hotter and drier conditions.
AVIATION
Wednesday 03/00Z through Thursday 04/00Z...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will gradually diminish over the White Mountains after sunset this evening. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the northern Arizona terminal aerodrome forecast sites through the period.
OUTLOOK
Thursday 04/00Z through Saturday 06/00Z
VFR conditions will prevail over northern Arizona through the outlook period.
FIRE WEATHER
This afternoon trough Thursday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, then again just in the White Mountains on Wednesday. Dry on Thursday. Winds west/southwest 5-10 mph, becoming west 10-15 mph on Wednesday.
Friday though Sunday...Hot and dry conditions are expected, outside of a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains on Saturday. Warming temperatures with northwest through northeast winds 10-15 mph. Afternoon RH values 5-15%, with overnight recovery 20-40%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for AZZ005-006-037.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 847 PM MST Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drier conditions will set in on Wednesday with thunderstorm chances confined to the White Mountains. From Thursday onward, expect dry weather and increasing temperatures. A very hot Fourth of July weekend is on tap and will likely continue into next week.
UPDATE
The latest radar trends indicate isolated thunderstorms developing near Highway 264 east of Polacca. As a result, updated the POPs to indicate isolated thunderstorms for eastern portions of Hopi and parts of Navajo Nation along and south of Highway 264.
This activity should end after midnight. Otherwise, the remaining forecast is on track.
PREV DISCUSSION /407 PM MST/
Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist across southern portions of Navajo and Apache counties this afternoon as a drier, more stable airmass moves in from the north and west. This activity should continue through early this evening, tapering by sunset. Slight chances for isolated storms are forecast on Wednesday, but only across the White Mountains.
A significant warming and drying period takes shape on Wednesday and will continue through this upcoming holiday weekend. High confidence exists in a strong high pressure ridge building off the West Coast on Wednesday and then migrating towards the east gradually through the weekend. Surface to mid-level flow has already shifted to the west-northwest this afternoon, becoming more northerly and breezier to end the week. This synoptic setup is a monsoon killer as drier, northerly flow will push moisture out of the Southwest altogether. Afternoon humidity will likely plummet by Thursday with widespread single digits on Friday.
Humidity looks to remain below 15% each afternoon into next week with relatively poor recoveries overnight.
As humidity and moisture decrease, temperatures on the other hand will be increasing during this time as high pressure strengthens.
Daytime highs of 5-10 degrees above average (it happens to be the warmest time of the year climatologically speaking) return on Thursday and continue through the weekend. Given the high confidence in the temperature forecast and the impacts this anticipated heat will likely have during the Fourth of July weekend, Excessive Heat Watches have been issued for our lower valley locations across Yavapai County and from the Grand Canyon to Marble Canyon for Thursday and Friday. Heat impacts will likely be felt across all of northern Arizona during this time with a high to extreme UV Index thanks to minimal cloud cover expected each day through Sunday.
As we enter into next week, confidence remains on the higher side in this high pressure system sticking around for the time being.
Conditions look to remain dry and hot through Tuesday, however, ensemble guidance indicates moisture beginning to sneak back in from the south and east by the middle of next week. We also will have to keep our eye on Hurricane Beryl, currently causing major problems for those in the Caribbean. Even though it is very far out, long range model guidance shows the storm taking a west- northwest track and could impact southern Texas. This potential scenario would result in an influx of moisture from the southeast.
Of course this all depends on the overall track of the hurricane and the strength of the high pressure system over the West. Lots of things to think about and watch. Until then, plan on hotter and drier conditions.
AVIATION
Wednesday 03/00Z through Thursday 04/00Z...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will gradually diminish over the White Mountains after sunset this evening. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the northern Arizona terminal aerodrome forecast sites through the period.
OUTLOOK
Thursday 04/00Z through Saturday 06/00Z
VFR conditions will prevail over northern Arizona through the outlook period.
FIRE WEATHER
This afternoon trough Thursday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, then again just in the White Mountains on Wednesday. Dry on Thursday. Winds west/southwest 5-10 mph, becoming west 10-15 mph on Wednesday.
Friday though Sunday...Hot and dry conditions are expected, outside of a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains on Saturday. Warming temperatures with northwest through northeast winds 10-15 mph. Afternoon RH values 5-15%, with overnight recovery 20-40%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for AZZ005-006-037.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSJN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSJN
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSJN
Wind History graph: SJN
(wind in knots)
Albuquerque, NM,
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