.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...27/410 AM.

This weekend will feature a cooling trend, with temperatures below normal across the region. 500 mb heights will hold consistent and on the low side, kept at bay by a trough moving across the northern part of California. Today temperatures will drop dramatically to around 3 to 7 degrees below normal (near normal for DTLA), followed by another couple of degrees of cooling likely for Sunday. Expect highs this weekend to be in the upper 60s to around 80 for the beaches and coastal plains, in the 80s to low 90s for the valleys and foothills, and mid 90s for the deserts. Monday, as a broad high pressure system starts to develop over the central southern United States, 500 mb heights for SoCal will creep up slightly. Temperatures are likely to increase by a couple degrees Monday, especially across inland areas, however will still be several degrees below normal.

Strong onshore and north-to-south pressure gradients will drive gusty winds for wind prone areas, especially today and tonight.
Across the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills, southwest wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph will be common this afternoon and evening.
Sundowner winds are expected to continue this afternoon through tonight across the Santa Barbara Southwestern Coast, with northwest wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Both the Sundowner and the Antelope Valley winds may repeat on Sunday and Monday, but pressure gradient trends indicate that they are likely to be slightly weaker. At this time, no wind advisories are anticipated to be needed.

The atmosphere will continue to dry over next few days, with no significant source of moisture for inland ares. Despite much cooler temperatures this weekend, low humidities and the previously mentioned gusty winds will drive fire weather concerns. Fire weather risk will correspond with the strongest wind, thus is highest across the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills, and the Santa Barbara Southwestern Coast. Members of the public are encouraged to remain cautious with any sources of fire starts and residents are urged to stay on alert this weekend.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...27/526 AM.

Through Wednesday the broad high pressure system will remain stationary, centered over Texas and adjacent states. By Thursday it is likely to travel northwest, settling over the Four Corners on Friday. There is good agreement among the ensembles in this pattern. For SoCal, 500 mb heights will increase gradually each day with this pattern, resulting in a slow warming trend of a couple degrees each day. At this time, no significant heat impacts are expected through mid next week, with highs just starting to reach normal on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday conditions return to several degrees above normal for areas away from the coast.

Thursday and Friday, due to the the location of the high pressure system, there is chance of significant monsoonal moisture reaching the region. Moist southeast flow aloft is favored by the latest deterministic GFS. Isolated thunderstorms or showers are possible for northeastern Los Angeles County (Antelope Valley and mountains) on Thursday (5 percent chance) and Friday (10 percent chance). There is the potential Friday for shower/thunderstorm chances to extend west into the Ventura County Mountains and south towards the coast, depending on the extent of the moisture.

AVIATION
26/2352Z.

At 2215Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 2400 ft with a temp of 28 C.

High confidence in valley/desert TAFs, but low to moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. There is a 25 percent chc of no cigs for coastal TAFs KSBA and south. If cigs do arrive timing could be off by as much as 2 hours. VFR transition may occur 1 hour earlier than fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of no cigs. If cigs do form they could arrive as early as 06Z or as late as 10Z. There is a 30 percent chc of VFR conds arriving at 17Z.
No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE
27/523 AM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the forecast. In the southern zones (PZZ673/676), high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing thru Sun night. For Mon, there is 40% chance of SCA level winds, then SCA level winds are likely (60-70% chance) Mon night thru Wed night. In the northern zone (PZZ670), SCA level winds are likely thru tonight. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds Sun thru Tue morning, then SCA conds are likely (70% chance) Tue afternoon thru Wed night.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate confidence in the forecast. SCA level winds are likely (60-70% chance) this afternoon/eve. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon/eve hours Sun thru Mon night, then SCA winds are likely during the afternoon/eve hours Tue thru Wed night.

For the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the forecast. Across western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conds are likely (60-70% chance) late this afternoon thru late tonight, and there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds during the late afternoon thru late night hours Sun thru Tue.
Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Wed night.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).