Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 1:34 AM   Moonset 1:25 PM

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FXUS62 KGSP 010128 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 928 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday.
High pressure shifts offshore Sunday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture. A more active stretch of weather may return early next week with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances within a summer like pattern. Another cold front will approach the area late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 920 PM EDT Friday...Blended the latest obs into the current forecast but no other changes were needed as the forecast remains on track. Otherwise, cirrus have become more scattered the last few hours allowing for decent radiational cooling. A thicker cirrus shield is currently pushing into from the west which should act to limit fog formation overnight. Despite the overnight cloud cover, lows should end up around 4-8 degrees below climo.

A robust upper trof will continue to translate eastward and off the Atlantic Coast while a stout upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. By the end of the near-term period Saturday evening, an embedded upper shortwave will help push the upper ridge axis further east and over the Atlantic Coast. At the sfc, broad high pressure will continue to slide SSE thru the period and will be moving off the SE Coast by the end of the period. This should keep us dry with below normal temperatures and dew points for Saturday. Relative humidity values will likely bottom-out near critical values again Saturday aftn mostly over the NC Piedmont, however relatively weak winds should limit any fire danger concerns.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 pm Friday: Deep layer ridging will finally have relinquished much of its influence across our area early in the short term, with low level moisture increasing around the western periphery of the western Atlantic-centered anticyclone. Showers originating from a pre-frontal environment across the TN Valley may make a run toward the CWA as early as Sunday morning, during which time PoPs increase to the chance category across our western areas.
The increasing moisture should support weak destabilization Sunday afternoon, with scattered diurnal convection anticipated, especially across the mountains, where general 40-60 PoPs are advertised. With surface high remaining centered over the western Atlantic, S/SW flow will support the continued increase of moisture during the latter half of the period, with another afternoon/evening of isolated/ widely scattered convection anticipated Tuesday. Temperatures will generally be right around normal through the period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 140 pm Friday: The upper air pattern will remain somewhat nebulous during at least the first half of the medium range, with levels of heating, moisture (and by extension, diurnal instability)
expected to return to...if not a little higher than seasonal normals by the middle of next week. As such, this period of time will be dominated by scattered diurnal convection (generally 30-50 PoPs) and steadily warming temps. By late in the week, the global models are converging toward a consensus of introducing substantial height falls to the East...advertising a deep upper low moving into the Great Lakes region by the end of the period. Associated frontal zone could enhance diurnal convective chances Thursday, although confidence in timing is such that we generally stick with slightly-above-climo PoPs on Thursday, with a transition to diurnal/token convective chances next Friday. Temps are forecast to be a category or so above climo through the period.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry yet again for the 00Z TAF period.
Cirrus have thinned out over the last few hours but a thicker cirrus shield is pushing in from the west allowing for SCT to BKN skies overnight. Cirrus will thicken up again becoming BKN late Saturday afternoon. Winds are mostly calm and variable across the terminals, but are expected to gradually pick up out of the east in the next hour or two east of the mtns. Winds east of the mtns will turn more NE overnight into daybreak Saturday before turning SE'ly by mid- morning Saturday. Winds at KAVL should generally remain S/SE'ly through the period but may be variable at times through daybreak Saturday. Winds should remain light through tonight, potentially becoming calm at some terminals overnight into daybreak Saturday.
Wind speeds will increase throughout Saturday ranging from 4-8 kts.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night into Sunday and will linger into next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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