Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morehead City, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 PM Tue...The gradient picks up as high pressure builds closer to ENC from offshore tonight. After some lingering showers/storms over the coastal plain dissipates this evening, attention will turn to increasing chances for showers and perhaps an iso storm for coastal counties late tonight. A long fetch of tropical moisture will saturate the low levels, with only weak convergence needed to get convection. Initially tonight shower activity will mostly be offshore, but coverage will increase overnight and into early tomorrow morning to 25-45% along and east of US 17. Muggy and warm conditions continue with lows only in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 PM Tue...A rinse and repeat day is on tap for Wed as aforementioned coastal showers migrate inland and with daytime heating, an uptick in lightning as diffuse seabreeze develops.
Coverage of convection will once again be in the 30-50% range.
Gradient will be moderately tight with sswrly winds of around 10 mph with gusts of 15+ mph. Hot and muggy again with heat indices in the lower 100's, but below heat adv thresholds.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 230 AM Tue
Key Messages

-Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend

-Potential for hazardous heat from Thursday through Sunday

Lowest chances to see any precip across ENC on Thurs/Fri as a "relatively" drier airmass overspreads the area. While we have average confidence that we see shower and thunderstorm activity each day, we have lower confidence in the exact locations within ENC that will be impacted as this will be highly dependent on the days sea/river/sound breezes and exact timing of incoming mid level troughs.

Jet stream will remain well to the north of the area through the next several days with upper troughs tracking across the Northern Plains and into the Northeast. Typical predictability issues are noted later in the long term (Sat and beyond) with lower confidence in the exact strength and position of the upper level troughs and ridges over the CONUS. Our upper level feature of note remains ridging, which will be centered over the Southeast on Wed and will gradually shift west in the following days into the Southern Plains this weekend while weakening slightly. At the mid levels, a weak shortwave will depart ENC on Wed before weak ridging overspreads the area on Thurs/Fri bringing convergence aloft and thus limiting precipitation chances for these two days. This mid level ridging breaks down over the weekend allowing a parade of weak mid level shortwaves to track across the Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week.

At the surface, PWATS generally remain at or above 1.5 inches through the entire period. With multiple weak mid level shortwaves moving across the area over the next several days, this will bring a daily threat for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms to ENC.
As mentioned above, as a weak mid level ridge builds overhead Thurs and Fri and this could limit precip chances on those days before we once again see increasing chances at afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and early next week. While there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000- 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms.

High temps each day range from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Hottest temps are currently forecast to occur between Fri-Sun. With dewpoints in the 70s, this will bring the potential for widespread heat indices around 100-110 F. As a result, heat related issues likely begin either on Thurs or Fri across ENC and persist into the weekend. Given this, proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend.
Lows through the entire long term remain in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 2 PM Tue...Diurnal sct showers/storms will lift north and west with the sea breeze and dissipate early this evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in their wake overnight. Should not see too much low clouds, as a light srly breeze and high clouds will limit IFR potetnial.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tue...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a "relatively" drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Wed/...
As of 330 PM Tue...Sswrly winds of 5-15 kt cont across the coastal waters and sounds/rivers, and will cont in this range through Wed AM. Gradient inc a bit by afternoon, with 10-20 kt expected, centered over the Pamlico Sound and Roanoke/Croatan convergence zone. Could see a few gusts approach 25 kt by late afternoon/early evening here, but will hold off on any SCA headlines attm. Scattered showers and a few storms will once again dot the coastal waters and sounds beginning this evening, and lasting through the first half of Wed.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Conditions do begin to deteriorate on Wed as ridging across the sub- tropical Atlantic strengthens and a thermal trough develops in the afternoon across the Coastal Plain. This will allow S-SW'rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts on Wed afternoon with the potential for even stronger winds on Thurs as the thermal trough strengthens further. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with higher gusts across all waters. This will bring a threat for SCA conditions, mainly across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the central coastal waters which will have the most favorable orientation for SCA's given the wind direction. As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW'rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period with the lowest chances to see thunderstorms on Thurs/Fri.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.