Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

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Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:32PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:19 AM EDT (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 5:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 309 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..SW winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 309 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure offshore and weak troughing across the central carolinas will result in light S to sw winds and benign seas today. For late tonight into Saturday, a boundary will slowly approach the waters from the mainland resulting in an increase in winds and seas respectively.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 170628
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
228 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
A weak mid and upper level trough, which includes the weak surface
remnants of barry as a low pressure, will drift NE across the
central appalachians and northern mid-atlantic states today through
Thursday. A weak surface trough will be associated with these
features across central nc into Thursday. Finally, very strong
ridging aloft will develop over the central appalachians and mid-
atlantic states Friday through the weekend.

Near term today and tonight
As of 228 am Wednesday...

Heat advisory in effect for much of the eastern piedmont,
sandhills, and coastal plain today...

Scattered strong thunderstorms in the piedmont late this
afternoon into the evening...

another hot day today with highs again well into the 90s, generally
lower 90s NW to upper 90s in the sandhills. The dew points will be
elevated, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. This will generate heat
indices well into the heat advisory territory, generally 105-109
this afternoon. Even the NW piedmont will have heat indices near
100. We will maintain the heat advisory already issued through 600
pm, mainly along and east of laurinburg to raleigh to warrenton.

Mid and upper level ridging will weaken a bit today as the remnant
mid upper trough (barry) pulls out to the NE through the ohio valley
to the northern mid-atlantic states. This is where the higher pop
will be today. For our region, a weak surface trough is expected to
be located over the appalachians early afternoon, then drift slowly
east into the western and northern piedmont late this afternoon and
evening. This will be associated with the more subtle troughing aloft
that affects our piedmont zones later this afternoon and evening.

Models hint at a weak low pressure development this evening over the
piedmont. We will carry 30-50 pop in the western and northern
piedmont with this feature, mainly 300 to 700 pm, shifting into the
northern and central piedmont around sunset through the evening.

Strong heating should lead to high capes. Wind shear will be weak,
but the subtle height falls, high instability, steep low level lapse
rates, and moisture convergence in the NW and N zones later this
afternoon may lead to some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms,
with a wet microburst the main hazard. Since the convection is
expected to remain scattered, QPF basin averages will likely remain
0.25 or less. Of course, some 1 inch totals will be localized, with
other areas receiving none.

Cams and conventional models suggest a chance of thunderstorms first
along the SE coastal plain early afternoon. This activity then
remains in that region until dissipating later in the afternoon or
early evening. We will carry 30 pop along the i-95 corridor to cover
this potential. Elsewhere, generally widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected this afternoon (20 pop).

The potentially organized convection may linger into the evening
over the piedmont and NE zones, but will weaken and diminish by late
evening. Lows in the 70s expected tonight.

Short term Thursday and Thursday night
As of 220 am Wednesday...

ridging will quickly follow as the trough moves off the NE coast
later Thursday. Until that time, some lingering moisture will keep a
slight chance to chance of pm thunderstorms (20-30) pop. Less in the
way of convection is expected than this afternoon and tonight. Highs
generally in the 90s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Heat
advisories may again be needed in the eastern region Thursday. After
20-30 pop for a lingering shower or thunderstorm Thursday evening,
expect warm and humid conditions Thursday night with lows in the
70s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 345 pm Tuesday...

hot weather is expected Friday and over the weekend as an upper level
ridge builds over the southeast with increasing heights and subsidence.

Weak but increasing westerly flow will promote increased mixing and
the development of a weak surface trough across the piedmont. This
will support isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. The big story will be the heat with high temperatures
likely ranging in the 94 to 100 range with the hottest temperatures
extending from the northern piedmont into the sandhills. Muggy lows
will range in the lower and especially mid 70s. Heat index values
will peak between 105 and 110 with slightly lower heat index values
in the triad. An unseasonably strong short wave trough supported by
mid level flow approaching 50kts will move across the great lakes
Monday and then drop into the mid atlantic on Tuesday. A surface
cold front associated with the upper trough will approach the area
from the northwest late Monday and then settle across the area on
Tuesday. Global guidance is bullish on pushing the front through
central nc and into the coastal region of sc by late Tuesday.

Experience suggests that this may be aggressive given the time of
year but there is a good push with the front. Didn't fully bank on
the front clearing the area by Tuesday and have kept temperatures up
a bit and held onto clouds and pops associated with the frontal
zone.

-blaes

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 226 am Wednesday...

whileVFR parameters will occur at the TAF sites across central nc
through 00z Thursday, there may be brief instance of early morning
or low clouds between 10z and 13z Wednesday, mainly in vicinity of
the eastern terminals. Later this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms
are expected, mainly triad terminals between 20z and 00z this
evening, and in the vicinity or krdu and krwi between 00z and
03z tonight.

This weather pattern will change little through the rest of the work
week and into the weekend.VFR parameters will dominate most of the
time, though there will be a marginal threat for early morning
stratus or fog that will burn-off dissipate by 14z, then a slight
chance of a pm thunderstorm at any site 18z and 02z each day.

Climate
Record high temperatures and years for the next few days.

Rdu gso fay
wed 7 17 100 1887 101 1915 102 1932
thu 7 18 103 1887 97 1986 103 1942
fri 7 19 101 1902 98 1977 101 2002
sat 7 20 102 1942 100 1977 104 1932
sun 7 21 102 2011 102 1926 105 1937
mon 7 22 103 2011 101 1926 107 1932

Rah watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt today for ncz010-011-026>028-
041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Badgett
short term... Badgett
long term... Blaes
aviation... Badgett bsd
climate... Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi50 min 83°F
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi50 min Calm G 0 77°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi28 minS 59.00 miFair79°F75°F88%1017.8 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi27 minS 410.00 miFair78°F75°F93%1017 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi84 minWSW 610.00 miFair79°F75°F89%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--CalmCalm53SW7SW6S9S85SW7N6CalmSE4S10S6S5SW7SW5SW4CalmS5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4NE4NE53SE54NE433SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4CalmCalmW3NW5N7N8N9N5CalmN103N7NW8N7N4N4CalmCalmW4W3W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Wed -- 04:15 AM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:32 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:24 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.81.11.41.51.51.310.70.40.20.20.30.60.91.11.21.210.80.50.20.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:36 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:22 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:35 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.60.91.11.21.210.80.60.30.10.10.30.50.70.910.90.80.60.40.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.