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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 602 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect until 4 am est Monday...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight, then becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 602 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hazardous conditions will peak tonight as a strong storm system affects the waters. Conditions will then improve through Monday as high pressure builds back into the area and maintains control through the week.

FXUS62 KRAH 102041 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 341 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will move across the region tonight. After the front passes the state, high pressure will build across the Southeast for much of the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 PM Sunday...

...Tornado Watch in effect for most areas away from the Triad and southern Piedmont through 8 PM this evening...

Radar displayed a large band of showers and embedded thunderstorms along a prefrontal trough from south of the Triangle up to the VA border, continuing east, with scattered rain showers trailing behind. The main cold front was pushing east across the NC/TN border, and will move east across central NC this evening and early overnight. Strong low-level shear and an unstable environment will continue the risk of severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes through this evening, with a Tornado Watch in effect for most areas away from the Triad and southern Piedmont through the period. The severe and tornado threat diminishes this evening as the cold front and upper trough approach, however breezy winds will surface behind the front for a few hours, with NW gusts of 30 to 45 mph possible.
Weakest winds are expected near the Triad this evening, with the strongest winds near the southern Coastal Plain expected around midnight.

Very cold and dry air will advect across the region from the NW behind the front. The near freezing temperatures will arrive across the Triad area at the end of the precipitation, and will create the possibility of a rain/snow mix for a few hours near the area late tonight. No snowfall accumulations are expected with surface temps remaining in the mid-30s. Precipitation will exit east out of central NC just after sunrise, with overnight lows ranging form the mid-30s NW to the low 40s SE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 PM Sunday...

By Monday morning, low pressure will be over eastern Massachusetts with today's cold front extending to the south. While there could be some lingering showers over coastal North Carolina, all rain should have moved east of the forecast area. Cloud cover will rapidly decrease east of Raleigh through the morning, with clear skies expected in the afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours.
The wind will gust between 15-30 mph in the morning, but drop to 10- 25 mph in the afternoon with a light wind continuing overnight.
After above normal temperatures today, Monday will have below normal temperatures, with highs ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s.
Lighter winds and clear skies will also bring below normal temperatures for Monday night, with lows from 22-32.

.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 PM Sunday...

High pressure will be over central North Carolina Tuesday morning, and the high will be reinforced from the Great Lakes through the middle of the week. There should be some high clouds Wednesday, but Tuesday and Thursday will be mostly clear. By the weekend, there is much lower confidence in the forecast. The 12Z run of the ECMWF has maintained a dry forecast through the weekend, and the 12Z run of the GFS has dried out compared to previous runs, now not bringing precipitation into central North Carolina until Sunday. Meanwhile the 12Z GEFS has been fairly consistent with its previous run, bringing precipitation into the area as early as Friday night and keeping rain in the forecast through the entire weekend. Considering the 12Z GEFS is a wet outlier, have gone with a dry forecast Friday night, only kept slight chance pops across the south on Saturday, then added chance pops to the forecast for Saturday night and Sunday.

Temperatures will yo-yo through the extended forecast, with the warmest highs a few degrees above climatology over the weekend and the coolest highs on Thursday only reaching the 40s. Thursday night looks like the coldest night with widespread lows in the 20s, and lows will be at or below freezing every night except Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Frequent SHRA/RA and scattered TSRA will help continue sub-VFR conditions through this evening, with conditions improving from west to east overnight as a few disturbances move across the region.
Besides gusty and erratic winds possible near TSRA, southerly wind gusts to 25 kt are possible near KFAY/KRDU/KRWI through this afternoon, then widespread NW wind gusts of 25 to 40 kt are possible behind a cold front this evening with highest gusts near and east of Hwy-1. Conditions will improve to VFR late tonight, however breezy NW wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt could linger through Mon morning.

Outlook: High pressure will favor VFR conditions through early to mid week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Conway
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Sun -- 12:18 AM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:59 PM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:14 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:29 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Sun -- 01:16 AM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:48 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:57 PM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:14 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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