Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:42PM Thursday October 17, 2019 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 9:48AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1155 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 1155 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in through late Friday. Low pressure will move quickly from the gulf of mexico across the area later Saturday into early Sunday. Another front will move across the region toward the middle part of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 171744
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
145 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will build into the region through Friday
night, then begin to slide offshore Saturday. The remnants of the
developing tropical low over the gulf of mexico will move NE through
the SE us on Saturday and then up along the carolina coast Saturday
night and Sunday before moving out to sea Sunday night.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am Thursday...

Patchy frost expected tonight...

packed pressure gradient between the occluded low lifting through
the NE us and canadian high pressure building into the area from the
west will gradually relax during the mid to late afternoon. Thus,
expect frequent gusts into 18 to 23 kt range area-wide. The
orographic cirrus band that has set up across central va will graze
the far northern va bordering counties through the late
morning early afternoon hours and should little to no impact today's
highs. Otherwise, it will be sunny today. The 1000-850mb thickness
of 1331 m and h8 temp of 0c observed at gso upper air this morning,
which is the lowest of the young season, is forecast to rebound to
1350m this afternoon, which is ~25 meters below the 30 yr average.

However, wnwly down-slope warming flow east of the mtns could
slightly offset the below normal thicknesses. Highs today ranging
from lower 60s across the north to upper 60s south.

Relaxing pressure gradient this evening will allow the gustiness to
subside this evening with the potential for winds to decouple late
tonight daybreak. All in all, we should have pretty good radiation
cooling conditions tonight; and with the thermal trough axis and dry
airmass centered over the region, temps overnight will have the
potential to cool to their MAX potential, especially outside of
urban areas. This will support the first patchy frost of the season
in the normal cold areas. Expect lows mainly in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, with some mid 30s in the outlying rural areas.

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 345 am Thursday...

Patchy frost expected Friday night...

during the day Friday surface high pressure will center overhead
with winds mostly light and calm. 850 mb temperatures Friday
will actually remain rather similar to today, at or around 5
degrees c, with a similar story in 1000 850 mb thicknesses. Due
to this have kept high temperatures for Friday very similar to
today, with mostly mid 60s expected.

Friday night into Saturday morning surface high pressure will
slowly slide east with a potent upper level disturbance
approaching from the southwest. The result from the approaching
low will be a more robust cirrus shield Saturday morning than
initially expected. This will make for an extremely tricky low
temperature forecast. Thanks to winds decoupling temps will
likely quickly fall across the CWA before halting across the
southwest as cirrus moves in. For the most part am expecting low
40s across the area Saturday morning with some mid upper 30s
possible across the central northern zones in the outlying rural
areas.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 440 am Thursday...

sat through sun: confidence in the weekend forecast is lower than
usual, although there are signs that the operational models are
converging on a nearly-common solution. The mid level low over W tx
early this morning will track eastward along the gulf coast over the
next couple of days, picking up the trough and moisture now over the
w gulf while moving into ga through early Sat morning. This feature
will be propelled by a deep longwave trough now situated along the
west coast that will move through the W and central conus. The
surface high will shift offshore starting sat, while the surface low
(potentially tropical or subtropical at this point) attending the
mid level shortwave trough tracks NE over the fl panhandle and over
the southeast states or coastline through sun. The timing of this
low and trough and its precip continues to vary among the large
scale models, with the GFS still the fastest and the NAM ecmwf
slower, although the ECMWF has trended faster in recent runs and is
now not too far behind the gfs. At a pace close to the ecmwf, which
offers a reasonable compromise, we'll bring pops into SW sections of
central nc mid-late Sat afternoon, followed by a solid area of rain
(with possible embedded thunderstorms over the se) overspreading the
area Sat evening and night, before tapering off SW to NE Sun as the
southeast and midwest troughs merge and lift to our ne. Again,
uncertainty is high regarding the specific timing, however it
appears likely that we'll see a period of widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall ahead of the surface low passage, given its tropical
origins, deep lift, and the atlantic contribution to moisture over
nc. The best chance for rain looks to be from late Sat afternoon
through daybreak sun, and if the system maintains the speed
indicated by the latest model runs, late Sun through Sun night may
actually be dry with very few clouds, as rearward subsidence takes
over. For now will keep high temps just under normal both Sat and
sun, although a faster (slower) system will mean even cooler highs
for Sat (sun). Highs in the mid 60s to around 70. Lows around 50 to
the mid 50s Sat night and in the 50s Sun night.

Mon through wed: mid level shortwave ridging should bring fair
weather mon, although this will be short-lived as our next
large deep longwave trough digs over the central CONUS Mon before
swinging through eastern noam through mid week. The GFS gfe ens mean
have the corresponding cold front passage taking place tue, while
the ECMWF is slower by about 12 hours, taking the front through tue
night. Will split the difference and depict FROPA late tue, with
preceding rain and a few storms spreading in from the W starting mon
night and peaking Tue before clearing out W to E Tue night. Expect
temps to be above normal Mon Tue in the prefrontal warm sector,
slipping to just below normal post-front Wed under fair skies. -gih

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 145 pm Thursday...

24 hour TAF period:
breezy w-nwly winds of 15 to 20 kts will gradually subside during
the late afternoon, with winds decoupling this evening and becoming
light and from the NW overnight and into the day on Friday. Aside
from some orographic enhanced cirrus streaming across the northern
taf sites, clearVFR conditions are expected through the issuance.

Looking ahead:VFR conditions will continue through Saturday
afternoon. The remnants of the developing tropical low over the gulf
of mexico will track NE through the SE us on Saturday and then up
along the carolina coast Saturday night and Sunday. This system will
bring widespread sub-VFR conditions in rain area-wide and breezy
conditions to the eastern TAF sites late Saturday through midday
Sunday. Additionally, a period of llws is possible Saturday night
as the system tracks along our coast.VFR conditions will return
Sunday afternoon and evening with a cold front passage bringing
another chance of sub-vfr conditions Monday night and early Tuesday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Cbl
near term... Cbl
short term... Haines
long term... Hartfield
aviation... Cbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi58 min 65°F
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi58 min N 4.1 G 7 67°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi36 minNW 1010.00 miFair67°F36°F32%1011.8 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi35 minNW 12 G 1810.00 miFair64°F37°F37%1010.8 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi92 minWNW 810.00 miFair62°F36°F40%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMEB

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
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1 day agoSE6S7S6S4SE3SE4SE4SE6E6E4E6SE5E5SE4SE4SE5SE5SE6E8SE44SW6SW7W9
2 days agoNW7NW5N5NW4N3CalmCalm--CalmN4--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E5N3E6SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:03 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:01 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.91.11.21.31.31.31.10.90.70.50.50.50.81.11.31.51.51.51.41.210.9

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:59 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.60.70.911.11.110.90.70.60.40.40.40.60.811.21.21.21.110.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.