Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Red Springs, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 858 PM Sunday...

So far this evening, the main concerns have been more related to thunderstorm winds and hail, rather than flash flooding, as the storms have mostly been moving pretty quickly to the east and northeast. However, given lingering moist airmass and instability, coupled with additional activity upstream that is progged by many of the CAMs to move across central NC over the next several hours, we'll continue the current flood watch until it expires at 11 PM.

One of the primary drivers of this activity is a well-defined upper short wave trough seen on current water vapor imagery moving across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic regions. This feature provided just enough shear, when coupled with moist low levels and related instability to set the stage for the aforementioned convection. The other primary feature of note is the backdoor front that has dipped southward from SE VA into NE NC. That front is expected to move little during the rest of tonight. For the rest of this evening and tonight, given the upper short wave and it's upper support, the boundary that is stretched across the NE portion of our CWA, and the ongoing high-PW airmass, additional showers/tstms will remain possible until the short wave exits to our east. Should these cells train over the same areas, flash flooding would be a possibility, thus is our main concern for the near term period. The rain should wind down and exit to our east after 07Z, thus our forecast which indicates PoPs winding down from west to east after later overnight.

Lows tonight from 68 to 73, warmest south.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM Sunday...

*A stalled frontal zone will result in a lingering risk for isolated flash flooding Monday afternoon and evening

Anomalously moist PWATs of 2-2.25" will remain in place as a sfc boundary bisects the area.

Forcing for ascent will be limited, but a couple of weak upper disturbances, along with differential heating, weak low-level convergence along the boundary, and convective outflows, will initiate and sustain convection through the afternoon and evening hours.

The primary threat remains localized flash flooding, especially in areas with recent heavy rainfall. Urban areas and poor drainage locations will be especially vulnerable.

Poor mid-level lapse rates and weak flow aloft will limit stronger updrafts and convective organization. However, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Afternoon temperatures will climb into the lower/mid 80s north, and upper upper 80s/near 90 south, as morning stratus layer gradually lifts and scours out.

Convection will wane during the late evening with widespread low clouds likely to redeveloping overnight. Lows will range from upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Aloft, high pressure will sit off the Southeast US coast through Thu. A northern stream s/w will track enewd across the Appalachians, clipping the area as it traverses the periphery of the ridge late Tue/Tue night. Another s/w will move across the nrn Plains and upr MS Valley Tue/Wed. The trough will amplify along the Appalachians Thu, then slide ewd across the region Thu night/Fri. The ridge will build back across the Southeast in the wake of the trough on Sat, then strengthen as it sits over the TN/Valley/cntl Appalachians on Sun. At the surface, a persistent trough will sit over the area through Thu/Thu night. A front will approach from the NW/north Thu night/Fri, potentially moving into the area Fri/Sat.

Convection: Without a significant airmass change through Thu, expect diurnally driven convection to continue, with highest chances and potential for a few strong storms on Tue and Thu, associated with the s/w passages aloft. The weather should be less convectively active Fri-Sun, but iso to sct aft/eve showers/storms cannot be completely ruled out.

Temperatures: It still looks like Wed and Thu should be the hottest days, with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. With the continued high humidity, some locations (from the Triangle, to Fayetteville, to Rocky Mount) could see max heat index values in the 99 to 103 range both days. Also concerning are the overnight lows, which in those same areas may only drop into the mid 70s Tue night and Wed night. While heat index values may be shy of Heat Advisory criteria (105-109 degrees), the compound effects of prolonged heat and humidity with little relief overnight could be problematic for some mid-week. While there is still some uncertainty, if the front is able to move into the area late-week, expect a noticeable drop in RH and overnight low temperatures, with slightly lower highs expected as well.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 858 PM Sunday...

Through 00Z Tuesday: The main concern through at least 06Z tonight will be scattered showers/tstm and assoc reduced flt conditions.
Variable and brief gusty winds and IFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms. After the storms diminish and move east after 06Z, looks for a period of IFR stratus to develop at most if not all of central NC TAF sites. The cigs should begin to lift after 13z tomorrow morning, but another round of showers/tstms are possible during the afternoon hours which will likely affect flt conditions across much of central NC.

Looking beyond 00z Tuesday: Scattered to numerous showers and storms, focused through the evening hours, are expected again Mon and Tue afternoon/evening. A period of sub-VFR cigs is possible early Tue morning. The chance for precipitation and early-morning low clouds will decrease from Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds aloft, but isolated to scattered showers/storms will still be possible each day.

EQUIPMENT

Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and water information, and to send life-saving information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and requires that the system be taken completely offline for approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at https:/ www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via social media, and performing other functions that can be completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078-089.