Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 12:12 PM   Moonset 2:14 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 957 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 957 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure offshore in the atlantic waters over the next several days, will produce an extended period of generally southwesterly wind.

FXUS62 KRAH 161402 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1002 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front settling across the region this morning will linger today and then lift north as a warm front tonight and Wednesday. A weakening cold front will move across the region late Wednesday with a stronger front expected to move across the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 1000 AM Tuesday...

No major changes to the forecast with this morning update. As of the 12Z surface analysis, the backdoor cold front has settled W-E through central NC, with high pressure over the mid-Atlantic and nely winds advecting slightly cooler, drier, more stable air into the northern half of central NC. The 12Z upper air analyses show a weak jetlet over the area, with 90 kts at H25 over GSO. H5 heights have risen another 20m since 00Z. There was still a good bit of dry air at H7, with a bit more moisture pooling ahead of the front at H85, maximized along the NC/SC border.

Previous discussion (as of 325 AM Tuesday):

* A good deal of uncertainty with the coverage and location of showers and possible storms late this afternoon and evening.
* SPC has removed the marginal risk of severe storms.

The front across VA is expected to linger through the day, bisecting the area from west to east. North of the front, a northeasterly flow will transport cooler and more stable air into the area while south of the front, it will be warmer and a bit more unstable. The upper flow will become a bit more westerly today with a series of disturbances forecast to move across the area late this afternoon and evening. The combination of the upper air disturbances and the front should result in a few showers and storms. NWP guidance has struggled a bit with this pattern but the best signal is for some showers and a few storms to develop across the western/southern Piedmont late this afternoon and then push east across the southern Piedmont during the evening and perhaps into the Sandhills before dissipating. The HRRR/Nam Nest and other guidance are centering in on the southern tier from east of KCLT to near KFAY as the region with the best instability. The greatest convective coverage is expected from about 22Z to 02Z but with the uncertainty have opted to keep PoPs in the chance range. SPC has backed off the marginal risk that was in place for today likely resulted from the limited convective coverage and instability although fairly steep lapse rates could still support a stronger wind gust or two.

With the cold front extending across the area from west to east, expect a good spread in max temperatures today with cooler upper 70s expected across the northern Coastal Plain, the lower 80s in the Triad and Triangle to the upper 80s near the SC border. Lows tonight should be moderated by a good deal of cloud cover and a light southeast wind with lows mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. -Blaes

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

A short wave ridge axis will move across the Carolinas and VA early Wednesday morning with a west to southwest flow aloft expected later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak short wave trough will move east across central NC on Wednesday. At the surface, the combination of surface high pressure across the southwestern Atlantic and a decaying cold front moving across the southern Appalachians will result in a southwesterly low level flow across the area. Increasing moisture at various levels will result in an good deal of cloud cover for much of the period. While forcing for ascent is weak, NWP guidance suggests there may be a few sprinkles on Wednesday morning with perhaps a shower or storm possible across the eastern areas during the afternoon or evening. Highs on Wednesday should range mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s although if the cloud cover is a bit thicker or a little bit more precipitation develops, high temperatures may not get out of the 70s. Lows on Wednesday night will mainly range in the lower 60s. -Blaes

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Weak mid-level ridging will move over the southeast Thursday into Friday promoting nwly flow aloft over central NC. A series of short-wave perturbations will periodically pass over central NC Friday through Sunday, followed by a potentially more vigorous short-wave Monday into Tuesday.

Thursday: A brief period of drying is expected as flow turns nwly aloft on Thursday. Downslope warming will promote another day of above normal highs in the mid to upper 80s. Decent mixing will promote wly gusts of up to 20 mph at times Thursday afternoon.

Friday through Sunday: Flow aloft will generally remain wly Friday through Sunday. However, ensembles are hinting at a few passing short-waves potentially moving over our area in this time period.
These features could trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening. Forcing for ascent does like pretty muted as guidance maximizes mid-level height falls well to our north. This may limit coverage both afternoons, but scattered showers and storms appear plausible.

Flow aloft turns a bit more swly Sunday and Monday increasing low- level moisture advection into the southeast. However, guidance is in a bit of disagreement wrt to rain and thunderstorm chances in this period. The GEFS/GFS shunt instability and heavier rain to our south. Conversely, the Euro/EPS/GEPS are more convectively active over central NC. For now, maintained high chance to low likely POPs favoring our southern zones Sunday through Monday.

Temperatures Saturday through Monday will largely depend whether CAD will set up or not (the raw 18Z GFS has highs in the upper 40s in the Triad Monday afternoon). For now will favor a blend of cooler and warmer solutions Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid 60s.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 645 AM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions are expected into the afternoon with a chance of a few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

A back-door cold front dropping south into far northern NC this morning will stall west to east across central NC later this morning. No precipitation and only a few clouds are expected with the front this morning with VFR conditions will dominate outside of some patchy ground fog. Light winds will shift to northeasterly behind the front at 7 to 10 kts with a few stronger gusts.
Uncertainty is greater than typical with the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon as an upper level disturbance and the lingering front may provide a focus for some weak convection. The best chance of precipitation is from 21 to 03 across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills. Given the limited confidence have opted to include just a mention of vicinity showers and no thunderstorms. The front will lift north tonight and some low stratus may move into southeastern areas toward daybreak Wednesday, otherwise a mix of mid and high clouds is expected with the northeast flow become east and southeast overnight.

Outlook: Generally fair weather and VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday into Friday with perhaps some early morning stratus possible. Another cold front will approach the area on Friday and resulting in a chance of some unsettled weather with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Conway
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Tue -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:59 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:21 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:59 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Tue -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:19 AM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:57 PM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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