Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:08PM Monday December 9, 2019 9:52 PM EST (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 4:27AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 633 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog this evening. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 nm or less this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers with isolated tstms after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 633 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Moderate sw winds are expected ahead of a cold front. The cold front will approach the coast Tuesday, crossing the waters late Tuesday night and early in the morning Wednesday. This will be followed by strong high pressure, gusty ne winds, and large seas Thursday into Friday. Gradual improvement into the weekend is expected, as the high moves offshore and sw winds return.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 100240 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 940 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cold air damming high pressure across the wrn Piedmont of the Carolinas and middle Atlantic, separated from much milder and more humid air by a quasi-stationary wedge front, will linger through early Tue. That front will be overtaken by a pair of closely-spaced cold fronts that will cross cntl NC Tue and Tue night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 940 PM Monday .

The cold air damming wedge is starting to get squeezed from the west, with temperatures remaining in the mid 40s at Winston-Salem and Greensboro, but one county to the east, Burlington is 57 degrees. Temperatures will remain steady or rise slowly overnight at all locations, with fog remaining primarily across the western half of the forecast area. Although a dense fog advisory was considered for the Triad, confidence was not high enough to issue one at this time.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM Monday .

An initially positively-tilt trough from a polar vortex near Hudson Bay swwd to near the Rio Grande, and one which will span multiple branches of the westerlies, will provide for deep swly flow aloft directed across the Carolinas through Wed night. The primary srn stream perturbation, now over the nrn Gulf of CA, will deamplify and become increasingly separated from stronger nrn stream stream flow that will pivot more quickly newd across the lwr Great Lakes/nrn middle Atlantic/Northeast. Related forcing for ascent over cntl NC will consequently be maximized Tue night, when the right entrance region of a ~180 kt upr jet accompanying the positive tilt trough migrates overhead, before the nrn stream flow and that jet lift well newd and away from NC on Wed.

At the surface, the wedge front will have likely stalled over the nw NC Piedmont Tue morning; and this front will likely linger until the lead of a pair of closely-spaced upstream cold fronts crosses the Appalachians and subsequently overtakes the wedge front over the Triad region during the midday hours. The merged frontal zone and wrn bound of the mid 50s to around 60 degree surface dewpoints that have recently advected into cntl NC with the retreat of the foregoing wedge front this afternoon, will continue sewd across the remainder of cntl NC through the evening. And that front will be followed several hours later by a more-markedly drier airmass behind the trailing front that will cause much cooler, and eventually drier air once the rain tapers off on Wed, to filter across NC through mid- week.

Aside from lingering light rain and drizzle in the remaining CAD over the nw Piedmont Tue morning, the day should be dry ahead of the lead front and band of mostly anafrontal rain that will follow. Periods of light rain behind the front will likely increase in intensity overnight, when the upr forcing becomes maximized, with total rainfall amounts ranging from a tenth to quarter inch in the srn-cntl Coastal Plain to three quarters to around an inch in the nw Piedmont.

It will also become much warmer and breezy ahead of the front(s) Tue midday through afternoon, ranging from 70s in the se to 50s to around 60s in the nw Piedmont, and with wind gusts between 20-25 kts in the warm sector. Both CAA and diabatic cooling will drive temperatures into the upr 30s to mid-upr 40s by Wed morning. And given that CAA, lingering rain early in the day, nwwd-sloped cloud band behind the fronts through the afternoon, temperatures will likely only rise a category or two through peak diurnal heating. Clearing and much colder with widespread 20s to lwr 30s Wed night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 120 PM Monday .

Still looking at a complicated forecast for the Thursday night/Friday morning period as strong CAD will be in place during the day Thursday ahead of an approaching southern stream shortwave trough. The deterministic model tendencies that have been discussed over the past few days (ECMWF slower onset - all rain, GFS faster onset - mixed precip changing to all rain) remain somewhat unchanged with today's 12Z guidance, although there are now hints that the ECMWF and ECENS are bringing in light precipitation a few hours earlier than they had in the past. Today's 12Z ECMWF is still the slowest of them all but given this forward temporal shift, felt it prudent to continue the idea of a period of freezing rain at the onset early Friday morning. Despite strong WAA from the approaching trough, the very dry sub-cloud layer with dewpoints in the 20s will not be in a hurry to warm up once precipitation begins as wet bulb values will likely hover around 30 degrees until approx 12Z-15Z. Cold air will be slow to erode in the Triad (dewpoints will also be the lowest in the forecast area) and these areas stand the greatest chance of seeing a brief period of mixed precip (mainly freezing rain) right at the onset. To the east around the Triangle and the Coastal Plain areas, CAD will be a bit weaker and a little more prone to erosion, and dewpoints will also be a bit higher. Thus the aforementioned wet bulb concerns will be less of an issue. While a brief period of mixed rain/freezing rain isn't out of the question in these areas, it should be very brief and quickly change to rain after daybreak. A sampling of GFS BUFR soundings CWA-wide confirm this thinking as well.

Once warm air arrives by mid morning Friday, expect a rapid warmup with all precip going over to rain well before noon, then continuing as rain through the evening and overnight hours. Blended QPF from NBM, SuperBlend, and WPC yields anywhere from a half to three quarters of an inch by the time the system exits the area Saturday evening. Thereafter, dry weather should prevail for Sunday into Monday although a fairly progressive pattern could result in another shortwave trough approaching the area as early as Monday afternoon. Ptype with this event doesn't look to be an issue as BL temps will be well above the freezing mark.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 725 PM Monday .

LIFR conditions in fog and low stratus will likely continue at KGSO and KINT through 15z/Tue. KRDU will be at the transition between the warm and cool sectors with greater variability expected there. However, even at KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI low stratus is expected to develop again tonight with LIFR CIGS likely by 06z/Tue continuing through 12z-14z or so, Tue.

A lead cold front and band of rain will settle sewd across cntl NC Tue afternoon and evening. Any improvements in flight categories across cntl NC during that time will be minimal.

Outlook: Mostly light rain and sub-VFR conditions will continue through Tue night-early Wed, before drier air arrives later Wed and Wed night. A coastal storm will result in another high probability of rain and sub-VFR conditions Fri-Fri night, including a short- lived period of wintry precipitation at INT/GSO at precipitation onset Fri morning.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . MWS NEAR TERM . Green SHORT TERM . MWS LONG TERM . Leins AVIATION . Badgett/Danco/MWS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi52 min 59°F
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi82 min N 5.1 G 6 56°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi60 minS 78.00 miFair61°F57°F90%1016.4 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi59 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F59°F90%1015.7 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi3.9 hrsSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F56°F91%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMEB

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmNW4NE5NE4N6S4NE3CalmNW3CalmSE3SE3CalmS5SW5S7S9S6S6S6S7SW5S7
1 day agoNE6NE6NE7NE7NE7NE6NE8NE6NE8NE7NE8NE9NE8NE9NE6NE5NE6NE7NE8NE10N6E6E10NE3
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE7E14E12NE9
G17
E12NE11NE11E8NE5NE5NE4NE6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Mon -- 12:28 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:54 PM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:23 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.10.90.70.40.30.20.40.60.91.21.31.41.31.210.70.60.40.50.60.81

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Mon -- 01:26 AM EST     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:52 PM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:27 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.9110.90.70.50.40.20.20.30.50.70.91.11.11.10.90.80.60.40.40.40.50.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.