Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 12:59 PM   Moonset 1:46 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 955 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of today - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and nw 1 ft at 3 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Sun - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 955 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles -
high pressure should bring dry weather today with pleasant temperatures. Rain chances will increase again this weekend as a new storm system advances eastward across the southeast. As the low exits the carolina coast Sunday, a cold front will push offshore bringing below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Small craft advisory conditions possible early next week.

FXUS62 KRAH 161046 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure will build over the region today and tonight.
An upper level disturbance will move in from the southwest Friday, then an upper level trough will slowly move eastward through the Mid South and Carolinas Saturday through Sunday, bringing unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Isolated afternoon and early evening showers possible; otherwise, a dry day today with seasonable temperatures.

Weak surface high pressure will build into the region today and tonight. A disturbance in the NNW flow aloft may produce some afternoon and early evening cloudiness over the north-central and NE sections of central NC. Some of the CAMS suggest a shower or two may develop with some weak instability under the disturbance late this afternoon into the early evening. However, any showers should be widely scattered with QPF of only a few hundredths to a tenth for those that get a brief shower. Highs today will return to near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Mainly clear skies tonight with light wind will lead to lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Increasing rain chances again late Friday and Friday night.

There is not significant model agreement on the timing of the shower chances with the next approaching mid/upper trough. It appears that Friday will be mostly dry with increasing POP late afternoon and evening, especially in the west. Then, POP ramps up Friday night.
The latest CAM solutions are indicating some of the initial heavier rains to remain from MS/AL to GA Friday night - where the stronger convection may track. For now, expect increasing cloudiness Friday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the south and west in the afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms become likely Friday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 354 AM Thursday...

As Friday night showers and storms linger into Saturday, medium and long range models are still varying slightly for coverage of rainfall on Saturday. Consistently though, Saturday afternoon/early evening have the best chance for thunderstorms especially over the southern portion of the FA. PW values increase in the afternoon and evening hours to 1.5-1.9 inches which is well above the daily mean.
With the surface low moving over the region (or just south of our region) SPC has increased the threat across the entire CWA for severe storms Saturday to a Marginal risk (level 1/5). WPC has continued to forecast a marginal risk for flash flooding across much of the Southeast Saturday as the disturbance moves from the Gulf states up into the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers and storms will linger into late Saturday night and Sunday morning before beginning to clear west to east late Sunday. A few isolated showers linger along the Coastal Plain as the low slowly pushes offshore. As high pressure builds in from the north, CAD conditions are expected to develop early Monday across the NW Piedmont resulting in clouds to stick around for much of the day. Northerly flow will result in cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds south by Wednesday.

Temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 70s NW to low 80s SE.
Early next week will be below normal with temps ranging from upper 60s NW to upper 70s SE. Temperatures bounce back to above average Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 645 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: LIFR/IFR cigs to give way to VFR conditions late morning and this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected tonight and Friday morning.

Looking ahead: Showers and sub-VFR conditions will return late Friday into Sunday, with largely VFR conditions returning sometime Monday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Conway
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:22 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:16 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:29 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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