SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Tonight, high pressure in the Gulf will become more established reinforcing ongoing moisture advection via SW flow around the high. By morning, HRRR guidance indicates significant deep tropical moisture will be present as seen in our elevated mid and low level RH values and PWATs of near 2". The 2" PWATs will be near or even slightly above the 90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology.

This environment primed for efficient rainfall production will be realized as a trough moves through the Great Lakes region providing enough lift in the TN Valley to trigger high rain chances. Rain chances greatly pick up Sunday after sunrise with most of the area having a +75% chance of rain through the duration of the day. The loss of diurnal heating will slightly lower rain chances overnight before picking back up for an additional day of high rain chances on Monday as the trough slowly swings east. With such deep tropical moisture in place along with sufficient lift, WPC has placed nearly the entire area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall from Sunday morning into Monday morning. Flash flooding and heavy rainfall will both be possible so make sure to stay weather aware.

Lingering moisture and lift will support a third day of high rain chances on Tuesday before the heat returns in the long term forecast.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

An unseasonably wet pattern will continue across the mid TN Valley heading more into the work week. An upper trough axis will continue to drift eastward over the Atlantic states, while high pressure at the sfc layered across the Gulf region allows for the continued influx of moisture into the region. PWATs still look to approach 2 inches by Tue, resulting in numerous/perhaps widespread showers/tstms thru the afternoon hrs Tue. Minor/localized flooding concerns will remain a possibility Mon night/Tue, before the wet pattern begins to diminish heading into the middle of the week. A strong upper ridge pattern out of the Plains states will then begin to build eastward Wed thru Fri, allowing for a return of highs in the lower/mid 90s.
Max heat indices likewise during the latter half of the forecast period will reach/exceed 100F, with some spots climbing near/above 105F, mainly along/west of the I-65 corridor. Heat Advisories may be warranted during the Wed thru Fri time frame, pending model/forecast trends. Overnight lows thru the work week look to trend mainly in the lower/mid 70s. Isolated/scattered showers/tstms will also remain possible past mid week given some persistent moisture below H7.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

VFR conditions will persist through nearly the entire TAF period at both terminals. Scattered showers are likely this afternoon however they were left out of the TAF due to low confidence in timing and coverage. Tomorrow morning a low cloud deck (potentially MVFR) will build in at the end of the TAF period.
Additional TAF issuances will refine exact timing and height of lower ceilings.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.