NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KHUN 300319 AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 919 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New NEAR TERM

NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 919 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Dry weather prevailed over and around the Tennessee Valley, thanks to surface high pressure centered over southern AL/GA and northern FL. A light southerly flow rounding the western periphery of this ridge, along higher thickness values and heights, thus conditions outside are not as cold like they were 24 hours ago (when they were falling through the mid 20s to around 30). Conditions now ranged from lower 30s to lower 40s.

A storm system now beginning to take shape over the Desert SW was in part sending periods of high altitude clouds over the eastern CONUS. Given light southerly winds from the surface high to our SE and a moderation in the airmass, not as cold tonight for overnight temperatures, with lows cooling into the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Thursday. A slow increase in upper level clouds should for the most part inhibit fog formation except in a few of the more favored spots. No big changes were needed at this time.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

A shortwave disturbance will track across the southern Plains and into the mid MS River Valley on Thursday, and synoptic forcing for ascent will increase ahead of a cold front. This will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the ArkLaTex region, and will eventually shift east into the Tennessee Valley Thursday night. With the increase in WAA, highs will reach near 60 degrees as cloud cover increases through the day tomorrow, with rain chances (80-95%) increasing from west to east after sunset. Did keep slight chances for thunder in during the overnight hours given some weak elevated instability, but expect mostly rain and no severe storms. The rainfall amounts have trended slightly lower with this system, only amounting to about 0.5" or less, but additional rainfall is possible (30-50%) again late Friday night into Saturday morning as the front lingers over the area and weaker impulses traverse amid southwesterly flow. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than normal through the remainder of the short term period, with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers are forecast to continue through the weekend and into the work week as a secondary shortwave trough develops in the central Plains and moves northeastward into the Great Lakes region. We have stuck with blended guidance for this time period as there is still strong disagreement on model guidance on speed/amplification on this trough. Depending on the speed and amplification, we may have another gusty day in the forecast early next week due to the development of another low level jet sweeping through the Tennessee Valley. We will certainly be keeping an eye on this potential secondary system as we continue into this weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conds are generally expected to continue well into the day Thu, as mid/high clouds continue to spread into the area from the west. With high pressure moving east of the area, light/var winds will also turn south near 8-9kt with higher gusts Thu morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Alabama,