Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 938 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

As an upper shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys shifts to the northeast, a weak, upper ridge moves over the Southeast. However, ripples of shortwaves look to move over the Ohio Valley and into the northern portion of the Tennessee Valley through the period. Additionally, a more potent shortwave trough is shown to progress over the north-central CONUS and over the Great Lakes this weekend. At the surface, high pressure will maintain its hold over the northern/northeastern Gulf as well as the Appalachians. A surface front may approach the Tennessee Valley on Sunday, but confidence is currently low whether it will hold together by the time it would progress over our area.
Overall, expect daily chances (30-50%) of showers and storms to continue from late week through the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

As guidance shows bulk shear values below 20 knots (really only around 10 knots) through Sunday, no organized severe weather is anticipated. However, as is usual for the summer time, with ample instability in the afternoon will come the potential for some storms to become strong and produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. In addition, model PWATs range between 1.4-1.8 inches Thursday and Friday and increase to between 1.7-1.9 inches this weekend. To put this in perspective, around 1.8-2.0 inch PWATs are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared with BMX Sounding Climatology. Thus, showers will be efficient rainfall producers. This may lead to at least minor flooding concerns if storms move over the same locations repeatedly, especially by this weekend.

Highs Thursday and Friday will be a tad cooler, with upper 80s to around 90 degrees anticipated for most locations. Some spots in the higher elevations of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee may see highs in the lower to mid 80s both days. By the weekend, expect highs to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Meanwhile, lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be common from Thursday night through Saturday night. Warmer temperatures and elevated moisture will also result in higher heat indices as well, with values in the upper 90s to around 103-105 degrees both Saturday and Sunday (especially on Sunday). Although widespread Heat Advisory criteria is not forecast at this time, it will still be hot and caution should be taken if outside. Ultimately, if you have outdoor plans, please stay weather aware and remember heat, storm, and flood safety! Make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. If thunder roars, go indoors! And, turn around, don't drown if you encounter flooded roads!

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 938 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

By the start of the long term forecast high pressure at the surface and aloft will have made its way west across the FL Peninsula into the SE CONUS. High pressure will dominate the long term forecast however we will not reap the the benefits of high pressure influence (aka subsidence suppressing rain and storm chances) rather, continued ESE flow will maintain high dew points in low to mid 70s as well as PWATS just below 2". This moist environment will combat subsidence from high pressure and amount to continued medium scattered rain and storm chances each afternoon through the long term forecast. A lack of forcing will dissuade any widespread severe chances.

Models diverge slightly on the exact location of high pressure as we head into the middle of the week. With a warming trend developing through mid week, the exact location of high pressure will dictate just how hot we get. Should the high pressure center be closer to the TN Valley, we will likely be flirting with or just over Heat Advisory criteria many days next week. Should high pressure remain slightly further removed, we may not quite reach the 105 heat index criteria. We will keep a close eye on this trend as the period draws closer.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each terminal through the period. A few SHRA/TSRA may push through the area during the morning hours, but coverage was too low to warrant a mention at this time. More widespread convection will redevelop later this afternoon and have included a TEMPO for MVFR conditions later this afternoon/evening at both terminals as SHRA/TSRA will develop later this afternoon and may produce MVFR conditions. AWWs and amendments may be needed during the 20-00z timeframe.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.