Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 8:31 PM   Moonset 6:17 AM

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FXUS64 KHUN 240541 AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 917 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Temperatures have dropped into the 55 to 65 degree range at this hour. Clear skies remain over the area with cloud cover not too far off to the northwest ahead of an approaching weakening cold front over northeastern AR and southern KY. Some calm winds can be seen in observations, especially in typical sheltered valley locations. However, winds in several locations in northern AL and southern middle TN are between 5 and 10 mph. Expect these winds to remain fairly steady and increase a tad through much of tonight, as the pressure gradient increases as the weakening front pushes southeast and approaches the area around daybreak. A fairly substantial mid/high cloud deck will likely build southeast into the area around 3 AM CDT north of the Tennessee River. Could see a few showers as this occurs in those areas. Between winds and cloud cover, expect lows to be a bit warmer than previously thought, likely dropping only into the 50 to 55 degree range west of the I-65 corridor. Further southeast, lows may drop a bit lower into the mid 40s to lower 50s with clear skies holding on longer.
Given expected winds, no fog is expected.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The cold front (which should extend from central AR through northwestern TN/southwestern KY and into southern OH at 12Z) will advance southeastward over the course of the morning tomorrow, warranting a low probability for light showers through mid-day.
Although there is still some uncertainty regarding how far south the boundary will make it before stalling (especially given the weak nature of the front), there is some agreement among the various high-resolution and global models the it will shift southward and out of the region during the afternoon hours.
Postfrontal clouds will likely scatter during the afternoon, with highs once again reaching the l-m 70s.

Well to the west of our region, thunderstorms are expected to develop across western OK early Wednesday morning as surface pressure falls occurring across eastern portions of NM/CO force the southwestern portion of the boundary to retreat northward as a warm front. With this activity occurring beneath a broad axis of 30-40 knot NW flow aloft, there may be a tendency for upscale growth into storm clusters that would subsequently spread southeastward in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday night. However, with the front now expected to at least temporarily clear our region, we will maintain a dry forecast Wednesday night and increase POPs from SW-to-NE on Thursday as the boundary begins to lift northeastward into our CWFA. Dewpoints in the u50s-l60s across the moistening warm sector will promote afternoon CAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range and this coupled with 30-40 knot NW flow aloft may yield a few stronger storms (especially across the western half of the CWFA).

The warm front is predicted to advance steadily northeastward through the local area on Thursday night as a deepening lee cyclone lifts northeastward over the central High Plains, and the precipitation regime discussed previously will expand across most of the region before ending across the northeastern portion of the CWFA late Friday morning. In the wake of the warm front, gradient-induced SSE flow will strengthen to around 15 MPH (with gusts around 25 MPH) on Friday and Friday night. However, a developing subsidence inversion aloft related to an amplified mid- level ridge will keep conditions dry in spite of a increasingly warm/moist airmass featuring highs in the u70s-l80s and lows in the l-m 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A broad based trough will extend across the Central plains to the Illinois/Ohio Valley are in the beginning of the period, bringing the more-favorable upper level support for precipitation just north and west of the entire TN Valley. For areas east and south of this troughing, expect conditions to stay warm and dry as high pressure will dominate the entire east coast of the US extending into the Central Gulf Coast states. Conditions will also stay warm/dry until the Sun-Mon timeframe as the trough begins to translate further eastward. Dewpoints will remain in the U50s to L60s until the frontal passage early next week (late Monday night), but the best dynamics and synoptic support are expected to remain north and west of the TN Valley until Monday. Some higher wind gusts seem plausible as shortwaves translate across the upper midwest, strengthening the pressure gradient and allowing a stronger mass response for areas southwards.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal the period. Clouds will steadily increase over the course of the night, as a weak frontal boundary pushes into the area by early/mid-morning. BKN to perhaps OVC decks of 4-6 kft ceiling clouds will linger across the region during the mid morning to mid afternoon period, before increasing later in the afternoon and evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.

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