Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL
July 26, 2024 6:58 PM CDT (23:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 11:23 PM Moonset 11:45 AM |
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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FXUS64 KHUN 262020 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 320 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(Remainder of this Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
The forecast area remains located in between a trough and associated vort maxima to our west and an upr ridge to our SE. As a result, deep layer moisture is streaming northwards between the pair of features NEWRD into portions of the TN Valley. This has mostly been concentrated to our west where the main area of active weather has occurred today. Earlier, a small area of showers/storms crossed over the TN border area and into our TN Counties with some brief wind gusts ~30 mph or higher. This generated an outflow boundary which has lead to some further development over portions of NE Alabama this afternoon. This boundary could generate some further activity, especially over eastern portions of the area the next few hours before moving out of the area.
Elsewhere, a complex of showers and thunderstorms was located along the Gulf Coastal Plain, and remnants of this activity may move across the area late tonight, per the broader suite of hi-res guidance. Chances for thunderstorms look relatively low, so most of this activity may be in the form of rain/showers. Fog formation may occur late tonight, which will be most prone to occur in areas that receive any rainfall later this evening or overnight.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
On Saturday, the upr low will move northward, with most of the favorable associated dynamics moving away from the area.
Nevertheless, a convergence axis on the SE flank of the upr low will offer some forcing for ascent and convection especially in SW portions of the area. Thus, higher POPs (~40-60%) can be found on Saturday in those areas, with values gradually trailing off to 20-30 POPs in the northeast.
On Sunday, the upr low will become absorbed into the Polar Westerlies and begin an eastward movement, dragging a weak front in tow. Moisture convergence will increase ahead of the front, with PW values largely expected around 2" and wet-bulb freezing heights climbing to ~14 kft in the deep moist/warm advection regime. This will create conditions favorable for efficient warm rain processed and the potential for locally heavy rainfall capable of producing some instances of flash flooding. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the 12Z Sun to 12Z Monday period as a result. Flash flooding would be most prone to occur in urban locations and also areas with poor drainage.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
The current wet pattern will continue for the start of the long term forecast. LREF model guidance indicates the continually presence of tropical moisture through at least Tuesday. This is seen in PWATs remaining near 2" supporting additional rounds of afternoon rain and storms Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Rain and storm chances greatly fall off for the remainder of the long term as surface high pressure is established in the Gulf of Mexico.
The change to high pressure will suppress rain chances to below 40% for the remainder of the period while simultaneously ushering in mid 70 dew points from the SSW flow. The drier pattern will allow temps to steadily rise though the long term forecast to the mid to upper 90s by Thursday. This, coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70s will reintroduce heat indices nearing or potentially exceeding heat advisory criteria on Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast trends will be monitored as we enter the next work week to assess the need for any heat products.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
The KHSV and KMSL TAF sites are currently being affected by MVFR ceilings, however, this is only expected to continue to ~22Z based on latest obs and satellite imagery. Otherwise, a small complex of SHRA/TSRA along the TN/AL border area will continue to slide EWRD but will likely miss the KHSV TAF site. A few SHRA may develop this afternoon leading to VCSH mention in TAFS. Confidence is not high enough for inclusion of TSRA in the TAFs, however, an amendment could be needed primarily before 00Z if one develops.
Predom VFR conditions are probable for the period after 22Z, although patchy fog may occur late tonight along with a round of SHRA/RA that could reduce vis/ceilings...but there is not enough confidence to warrant mention in TAFs.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 320 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(Remainder of this Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
The forecast area remains located in between a trough and associated vort maxima to our west and an upr ridge to our SE. As a result, deep layer moisture is streaming northwards between the pair of features NEWRD into portions of the TN Valley. This has mostly been concentrated to our west where the main area of active weather has occurred today. Earlier, a small area of showers/storms crossed over the TN border area and into our TN Counties with some brief wind gusts ~30 mph or higher. This generated an outflow boundary which has lead to some further development over portions of NE Alabama this afternoon. This boundary could generate some further activity, especially over eastern portions of the area the next few hours before moving out of the area.
Elsewhere, a complex of showers and thunderstorms was located along the Gulf Coastal Plain, and remnants of this activity may move across the area late tonight, per the broader suite of hi-res guidance. Chances for thunderstorms look relatively low, so most of this activity may be in the form of rain/showers. Fog formation may occur late tonight, which will be most prone to occur in areas that receive any rainfall later this evening or overnight.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
On Saturday, the upr low will move northward, with most of the favorable associated dynamics moving away from the area.
Nevertheless, a convergence axis on the SE flank of the upr low will offer some forcing for ascent and convection especially in SW portions of the area. Thus, higher POPs (~40-60%) can be found on Saturday in those areas, with values gradually trailing off to 20-30 POPs in the northeast.
On Sunday, the upr low will become absorbed into the Polar Westerlies and begin an eastward movement, dragging a weak front in tow. Moisture convergence will increase ahead of the front, with PW values largely expected around 2" and wet-bulb freezing heights climbing to ~14 kft in the deep moist/warm advection regime. This will create conditions favorable for efficient warm rain processed and the potential for locally heavy rainfall capable of producing some instances of flash flooding. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the 12Z Sun to 12Z Monday period as a result. Flash flooding would be most prone to occur in urban locations and also areas with poor drainage.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
The current wet pattern will continue for the start of the long term forecast. LREF model guidance indicates the continually presence of tropical moisture through at least Tuesday. This is seen in PWATs remaining near 2" supporting additional rounds of afternoon rain and storms Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Rain and storm chances greatly fall off for the remainder of the long term as surface high pressure is established in the Gulf of Mexico.
The change to high pressure will suppress rain chances to below 40% for the remainder of the period while simultaneously ushering in mid 70 dew points from the SSW flow. The drier pattern will allow temps to steadily rise though the long term forecast to the mid to upper 90s by Thursday. This, coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70s will reintroduce heat indices nearing or potentially exceeding heat advisory criteria on Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast trends will be monitored as we enter the next work week to assess the need for any heat products.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
The KHSV and KMSL TAF sites are currently being affected by MVFR ceilings, however, this is only expected to continue to ~22Z based on latest obs and satellite imagery. Otherwise, a small complex of SHRA/TSRA along the TN/AL border area will continue to slide EWRD but will likely miss the KHSV TAF site. A few SHRA may develop this afternoon leading to VCSH mention in TAFS. Confidence is not high enough for inclusion of TSRA in the TAFs, however, an amendment could be needed primarily before 00Z if one develops.
Predom VFR conditions are probable for the period after 22Z, although patchy fog may occur late tonight along with a round of SHRA/RA that could reduce vis/ceilings...but there is not enough confidence to warrant mention in TAFs.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMSL
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSL
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSL
Wind History graph: MSL
(wind in knots)
Northern Alabama,
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