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FXUS64 KHUN 022033 AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 233 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM

NEAR TERM
(Remainder of today and tonight)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

There have been no changes to the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon since the previous update, with widespread light- moderate rain expected to continue for several more hours to the north/east of a weak surface low approaching the region from the southwest. This will occur with a combination of low stratus clouds/mist/fog, which will result in significant visibility reductions in our higher terrain locations. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible given elevated CAPE values ranging from 200-400 J/kg, but the main threat with this activity (should storms indeed develop) will be occasional lightning strikes.

This general regime is expected to persist between 0-3Z this evening, but we do expect the axis of widespread precipitation be shifting northeastward and out of the region during this timeframe as the deepening surface low begins to lift further northeastward into the Upper OH Valley. A final round of light showers may occur along a surface trough/cold front extending southward from the low as it shifts southeastward late this evening-early Sunday morning, with precipitation expected to end for most of the CWFA between 6-9Z. The combination of stratus clouds/mist/fog will be a bit slower to exit the region, with overnight lows ranging from the u40s (NW) to l50s (SE).

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Low clouds will continue to spread southeastward and out of the region after sunrise tomorrow morning, as strengthening westerly flow in the wake of the surface trough/cold front advects a drier airmass into the region. The trailing edge of residual high- level cloudiness should also clear most of the CWFA by early afternoon, making for a sunny and pleasant afternoon featuring highs in the l-m 60s for most valley locations.

Mid/high-level cloud cover will quickly spread back into the region from the west early Monday morning, as a potent northern stream clipper system digs southeastward from the Mid MO Valley into the Lower OH Valley. Although models suggest that precipitation related to this system will largely remain along and north of the path of its related surface low, rapidly strengthening mid-level ascent across our region could support the development of a narrow band of light showers to our immediate north which may clip locations along and north of the TN River between 9-15Z. The mid-level wave and related surface low will both decay as they track across the southern Appalachians and into NC by Monday afternoon, with strong WNW winds (15-25 MPH)
anticipated for much of the day in the wake of this system.

Winds will begin to subside Monday evening, as a surface ridge temporarily builds into the region from the west. However, light southwesterly return flow should begin early Tuesday morning, as another northern stream trough drops southeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Another wave of similar magnitude will dig south- southeastward from the northern Plains into the southern Appalachians on Tuesday/Tuesday night, as the axis of the broader longwave trough tracks across the eastern CONUS, and this will deliver a stronger surge of cold/dry air into the region by early Wednesday morning. Highs will be in the m-u 50s on Monday/Tuesday, with lows steadily falling into the m-u 30s by Tuesday/Wednesday mornings.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Update: The most recent suite of global model guidance exhibited only very minor changes during the extended period, and all thoughts outlined in the discussion below remain valid.

Yet another shortwave will shift through the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday, bringing an additional shot of cooler/drier air as evidenced with highs briefly dropping back into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Beyond that, a broad area of high pressure looks to build back into the Deep South, promoting sunny/dry and warmer conditions by late this week. Highs will once again return to the 60s during this window as precipitation chances will remain very low heading into next weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Widespread lgt-mod RA will continue across northern AL this aftn, as a weak sfc low lifts northeastward from the Gulf coast, and a couple of embedded TSRA are also possible, but anticipated coverage is too low to include in the TAFs attm. Although brief periods of dry weather may occur (along with vsby/cig improvements), we have included lgt RA as the prevailing weather condition, along with MVFR vsby and IFR cigs. Forecast soundings suggest that vsby will fall into the IFR range around or shortly after 22Z, with LIFR conditions expected to become established at both HSV/MSL by 2Z. However, this will occur as the axis of widespread RA is shifting northeastward and out of the region, with only VCSH noted for much of the late evening/early morning timeframe. Conditions will improve by 10Z/MSL and 12Z/HSV as a cold front sweeps eastward and veers sfc flow to the W, with VFR conds returning by the end of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.

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