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FXUS66 KSGX 292135 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 130 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure moving across California will bring cool weather, gusty mountain and desert winds and chance for showers tonight through Friday. The best chances for showers will be in San Diego County. Farther north in Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties the rain chances and rain amounts will be lower. From Saturday through Tuesday a building ridge of high pressure over the Southwest will bring dry weather and a warming trend.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Doppler radar detected a few showers over central and southern San Diego County early this afternoon. Most of the precipitation was evaporating before reaching the ground as virga, but Miramar and Montgomery Field both reported a Trace of rain through 1 PM.

The lower layers of the atmosphere were still quite dry at 1 PM with surface dew point depressions of 10 degrees in San Diego County and 20 degrees in the Inland Empire. As the boundary layer reaches saturation tonight the rain chances will increase. Tonight the PWATs increase to between 0.70-0.80" in weak moisture advection ahead of a Pacific trough. The northwest storm trajectory and the southerly storm track favors San Diego County with the best chance for showers. Farther north the rain chances will be lower in San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange County.

The trough axis moves into Arizona tonight, followed by a second upper level trough that will bring a chance for more showers Thursday into Friday. As with the first trough the rain chances with this second wave will be highest in San Diego County and lower farther north. In fact, some sections of inland Orange County and the Inland Empire may not see any rain at all through Friday, and any rain that does fall will be light. The best chances for showers in Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties will be on the west facing mountains slopes and foothills where 0.05"-0.20" is forecast.

The highest rain totals will be in San Diego County. In the coastal and valleys areas, rain totals of 0.20"-0.50" are forecast. The higher end of this range will be in those areas of island banding showers over the coastal waters that move inland. In the mountains and foothills, rain amounts of 0.50"-0.75" are forecast on the orographically favored west facing slopes.

Snow levels will fluctuate between 5500 and 6500 feet with an inch of snowfall possible above 7500 feet in the San Jacinto and San Bernardino Mountains.

Over the weekend the 500 mb flow pattern shifts from weakly cyclonic to weakly anticyclonic as a ridge over the eastern Pacific builds over the Southwest. Saturday will be a cool day with highs a few degrees below average. This will be followed by slow and steady warming Sunday through Wednesday with sunny, warm days and clear cool nights.

AVIATION
292100Z
Coast/Valleys
Low cloud coverage continuing to increase this afternoon and evening with bases near 1500-3000 feet MSL.
-SHRA increasing in coverage this afternoon through tonight, most likely in San Diego County. Isolated vis down to 4SM and ceilings near 1000 feet MSL in SHRA. -SHRA look to continue intermittently into Thursday morning, mostly across San Diego County.

Mountains/Deserts...Westerly winds with gusts 35 to 45 kt over the mountains, through passes, and into the deserts after 21Z.

MARINE
Northwest wind gusts near 20 knots over the outer waters late Thursday through early Friday, which could produce choppy seas and hazardous boating conditions. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.

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Santa Monica
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Wed -- 03:03 AM PST     2.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:23 AM PST     6.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:00 PM PST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Monica, California, Tide feet

Santa Monica
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Wed -- 03:03 AM PST     2.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:24 AM PST     6.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:03 PM PST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:57 PM PST     3.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California, Tide feet

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