Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 4:25 PM   Moonset 3:30 AM

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FXUS66 KSGX 191515 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 815 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A large-scale trough over western North America will persist through this week. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages with gusty winds across the mountains and deserts. A closed upper level low will move across the region on Monday, which will bring the coolest and windiest conditions overall. Low clouds will continue nights and mornings, retreating back to the coast each afternoon.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

This morning, the sounding and aircraft reports show the marine layer about 3000 ft deep with low clouds beginning to clear inland. The inversion strength is similar to yesterday and so is the pattern of clearing, with San Diego County clearing faster than the Inland Empire and Orange County. Sfc pressure gradients are currently onshore at 6.4 mb SAN-TPH and 7.0 mb SAN-IPL. This continues to support sw to west winds gusting 35-50 mph in the favored mtn passes and canyons.

A closed upper low currently about 900 miles southwest of San Diego will be drawn into the mean flow and become an open wave over SoCal on Monday as a large-scale trough to the north deepens. This will bring additional cooling to the region and Monday will likely be the coolest day of the week. Temperatures will be near 5 degrees below average across the coastal areas with up to 10 degrees below average for inland areas. It will also strengthen the westerly winds, especially in the mtns and adjacent desert areas where chances are good for wind gusts over 40 mph and over 55 mph in wind-prone mountain passes. The San Gorgonio Pass will have a 70-80% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph

The trough over the West Coast will continue, though not as amplified as Monday. Rising heights will lead to some warmer conditions and somewhat weaker winds over inland regions. Little day-to-day variations in temperatures, winds and marine layer clouds can be expected from Tuesday through the end of the week, where we will see slightly below average temperatures and May Gray conditions west of the mountains in the morning with general clearing toward the coast by the afternoons. As we get into next weekend, the consensus of model solutions shows the dominant trough weakening and a building ridge of high pressure centered over eastern Mexico. At this time, it seems likely that the weather over SoCal will continue to be dominated by troughing over western North America.

AVIATION
191530Z
Coast/Valleys
Low clouds covered the area west of the mountains and are beginning to clear at the inland edges at this hour. Bases are 2000-2500 ft MSL with tops to 3200 ft MSL, obscuring higher terrain. Expect clearing 16Z-19Z in the valleys and 18Z-21Z near the coast, with SCT-BKN conditions lingering at the beaches into the afternoon. Low clouds will spread rapidly inland after 01Z Monday, reaching the inland valleys by 09Z.
Bases 1500-2000 ft and tops around 3000-3500 ft MSL by Monday morning.

Mountains/Deserts... Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through Monday morning. Areas of W-SW winds gusting 30-45 kt from the mountain crests east through the desert slopes and into the deserts will continue at times through tonight, accompanied by MOD UDDFS and LLWS over/E of the mtns.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

BEACHES
A series of southwest swells of 2-3 ft at 16-18 seconds from 200-220 degrees will build today and continue through Tuesday, producing surf of 3-5 ft with locally higher sets on exposed southwest facing beaches, as well as a high risk of rip currents at all beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for today through Monday evening. Swell and surf will slowly lower Wednesday and Thursday.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

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Santa Monica
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Sun -- 02:04 AM PDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:35 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:53 AM PDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:22 PM PDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM PDT     Moonrise
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Santa Monica
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Sun -- 02:05 AM PDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:35 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:55 AM PDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:27 PM PDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:48 PM PDT     5.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
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Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California, Tide feet

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