Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 5:24 PM   Moonset 3:54 AM

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FXUS66 KSGX 200922 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 222 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A large-scale trough over western North America will persist through this week. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages with gusty winds across the mountains and deserts. A closed upper level low will move across the region on Monday, which will bring the coolest and windiest conditions overall. Low clouds will continue nights and mornings, retreating back to the coast each afternoon.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

The marine layer continues to gradually fill the coastal basin with low clouds this morning. A weak trough of low pressure to the west will get picked up by a larger jet stream-driven trough to the north this morning and push through SoCal today. This should deepen the marine layer and produce patchy drizzle this morning, most likely near the coast. Winds through mountain passes into adjacent deserts will continue strong and gusty through this evening, with isolated top gusts through San Gorgonio Pass exceeding 50 mph, but more widespread gusts of 35-45 mph. As the trough exits east, the trend will be to decrease the onshore flow and tamp down the marine layer a little. That should bring more sunshine west of the mountains and weaker winds in the mountains and deserts for Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures in the 60s to low 70s west of the mountains today represent up to 10 degrees below normal in the valleys. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a few degrees higher, approaching but still not achieving normal. A very weak trough rotates through California again Thursday into Saturday. This should deepen the marine layer again and extend low clouds into foothills each night and morning, and make it harder for coastal areas to get sunshine in the afternoons. This will also boost those seasonal winds in the mountains and deserts. The cooler weather starts Thursday, and right now appears to bottom out Saturday, when temps will be more than 10 degrees below normal in the valleys. Next week the mean trough over the West appears to weaken, maybe making way for an actual ridge of high pressure. While ensembles paint a wide range of outcomes, most solutions indicate at least weaker low pressure and warmer weather next week.

AVIATION
200920Z
Coast/Valleys
Low clouds have filled in much of the coastal basin early this morning with cigs 1500-2500 ft MSL. Vis restrictions near coastal slopes where clouds intersect higher terrain. Patchy -DZ possible until around 17Z this morning near the coast and coastal slopes.

Most areas clearing by 16Z-18Z Mon with locally BKN CIGs near the beaches this afternoon. Areas of low clouds redeveloping after 02Z, progressing inland overnight and filling much of the coastal basin once again. Cigs/vis similar to that of this morning.

Mountains/Deserts...Clear skies with unrestricted VIS will continue through this evening. West winds near 15-25 kts this morning will strenghten and expand across most locations by the afternoon hours, where wind gusts will range from 20-35 kts, locally near 45 kts in mountain passes. There is around a 25 percent chance of a 30 kt gust at KPSP from 22Z Mon to 04Z Tue. Blowing dust could locally reduce VIS to 3-5 miles at times. Winds relaxing later Monday night.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

BEACHES
A series of southwest swells of 2-3 ft at 16-18 seconds from 200-220 degrees will build through Monday and produce above normal surf of 3- 5 ft with locally higher sets on exposed SW facing beaches, as well as a high risk of rip currents at all beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through this evening. Swell and surf will slowly lower Wednesday and Thursday.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

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Santa Monica
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Mon -- 02:38 AM PDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM PDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:52 PM PDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:09 PM PDT     5.38 feet High Tide
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Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California, Tide feet

Santa Monica
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Mon -- 02:37 AM PDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:38 AM PDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:47 PM PDT     1.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:11 PM PDT     5.47 feet High Tide
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Santa Monica, California, Tide feet

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