Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, NC
December 7, 2023 9:05 AM EST (14:05 UTC)
Sunrise 7:00AM Sunset 4:57PM Moonrise 1:35AM Moonset 1:37PM
AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 627 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 25 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough. Showers. A chance of tstms.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon and evening, then diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 25 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough. Showers. A chance of tstms.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon and evening, then diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 627 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Incoming high pressure will leading to calming winds and falling seas improving boating conditions into Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday with a potential for gale force southerly winds and dangerous seas.
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Incoming high pressure will leading to calming winds and falling seas improving boating conditions into Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday with a potential for gale force southerly winds and dangerous seas.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMHX 071140 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 640 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure builds into the area today with a warming trend to follow into the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and increased chances of showers and thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 0630 Thursday...Mostly clear, quiet, and cool Thursday on deck with ridging aloft and a strong SFC high sliding Eward over SECONUS. Only cloud coverage will be from some thin upper level clouds. Light winds shift from Werly to SWerly through the day as the center of the SFC high drifts off the coast near the GA/SC border. A dry and chilly post- frontal airmass will result in temperatures below average with MaxTs in the low 50s most, upper 40s to ~50 OBX.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
As of 0335 Thursday...Another strong radiational cooling night with ridge dictating light winds and clear skies. Remain on the cool side of guidance although Ts will not be as cold as Wed night. Temps drop sharply after sunset with a more gradual decline through the overnight. MinTs just below freezing inland, mid 30s immediately along the coast, low to mid 40s OBX.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Strong cold front to bring the potential of multiple hazards Sunday/Sunday night
2) Above normal temperatures over the weekend
3) Below normal temperatures next week
FORECAST DETAILS
A potent shortwave will move ashore along the Pacific NW today, dive southeast into the Southern Plains by late Saturday, then lift northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday into Monday. Medium range ensemble guidance have backed off a bit on the strength of the wave as it moves through the Eastern US, but it still appears likely that it will take on a negative tilt as it moves through, the strength of which is still noteworthy. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore on Friday, with a stout return/southerly flow developing over the weekend. A cold front will then march east across the Carolinas Sunday night.
What's most impressive with this system is the kinematics. A strong 50-60kt southerly LLJ is forecast to develop on the warm side of the system, with some guidance forecasting an impressive 60-70kt within the jet. With widespread clouds and showers, heating will be strongly WAA-driven, and mixing should be on the shallow side. Even so, there should be enough mixing into the lower reaches of the LLJ, allowing a fairly widespread area of 30-40 mph winds at times prior to the passage of the cold front, especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Where mixing and the pressure gradient are maximized, gusts of 45+ mph will be possible. Probabilistic guidance gives a 50-60% chance of those higher gusts being reached (highest probs along the coast), and a Wind Advisory may be needed for a portion of the area.
The strong kinematics with this system will also support anomalously strong moisture transport into the region ahead of the front, with PWATs peaking as high as 1.25-1.50". The strong moisture transport will be important for both the rainfall potential and any severe weather potential. Rainfall-wise, guidance differs on where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be, but there's a pretty good signal for 1- 2" of rain given the strong lift overlapping with anomalous moisture. It's been fairly dry over the past week across Eastern NC, and we should be able to handle these rainfall amounts. However, where rainfall rates are the highest, typically flood-prone and urban areas could see some minor hydro issues.
Regarding the convective potential, the strengthening southerly flow will help advect 60s dewpoints into the area, but with warmer temps aloft and weak lapse rates, instability may only top out in the 250- 500 J/kg range. Strong deep layer shear will be present, setting up a conditional high shear/low CAPE severe weather risk. Given the strength of forcing, it's possible that a narrow band, or two, of thunderstorms will develop ahead of the advancing front, capable of pockets of enhanced wind potential. Keep in mind, with the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help mix down some stronger gusts at the surface. As is often the case this time of year, the main limiting factor will be weak instability. Stay tuned as we continue to assess this potential.
Once the front clears the area, a drier and colder airmass is forecast to settle into the region next week. Temperatures will drop back below normal (similar to the past couple of days).
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 0630 Thursday...VFR with SKC, save for upper level cirrus, through the TAF period. Light winds out of the W early back to the SW but remain below 10 kt during the day as high pres in control. Another SKC night with light SWerly winds, too dry for meaningful fog concerns.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
Light winds and VFR conditions are expected on Friday. Conditions will then begin to trend more impactful for aviation over the weekend as a strong cold front moves through. Ahead of the front, sub-VFR CIGs may develop as early as Saturday, becoming increasingly likely on Sunday. Widespread SHRA and scattered TSRA are expected along the front, with IFR conditions possible. Gusty southerly winds will develop Saturday night and last through Sunday evening, before becoming northerly Sunday night. Southerly gusts of 25-35kt are likely during this time, peaking Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 0640 Thursday...NWerly winds currently 5-15kt inland, 10-20G25kt over outer coastal waters, ease and back through Thursday with SFC high sliding off SECONUS near the GA/SC border. Widespread NWerly 10-15kt by midmorning, Werly 10-15kt early afternoon, with a slight bump to 15-20kt in the hours either side of midnight. Seas lay down with the calming winds, currently 5-7ft @ 7-8sec becoming 3-5ft @ 8-9sec waters N of Ocracoke Inlet, 2-3ft @ 6-9sec Sern waters by this afternoon.
SCAs remain in place for lingering seas and will expire with the falling seas; Sern waters drops in twenty minutes, Nern waters at 1200est, Central waters by 1300est.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday
FORECAST DETAILS
High pressure overhead on Friday and Saturday will lead to light winds (5-10kt) and good boating conditions. Seas will be 2-3 ft.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west. This will lead to a strengthening southerly wind and building seas. The worst boating conditions are expected later Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front moves east across the area. The front will be accompanied by a period of gale- force winds over the coastal waters, including the Pamlico Sound, and strong SCA-level winds over the remaining inland rivers and sounds. Over the warmest coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras, model guidance and pattern recognition suggests occasional gusts to storm-force will be possible (40-60% chance). Elsewhere, a solid period of 25-35kt southerly winds can be expected as the front moves through. Seas will respond to the strong southerly flow, and will build to 7-13 ft offshore (5-8 ft close to shore). Inland rivers and sounds will be very choppy to rough. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, and will lead to areas of enhanced wind gusts. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds will lay down to 15-25kt, and seas will eventually follow suite.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 640 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure builds into the area today with a warming trend to follow into the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and increased chances of showers and thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 0630 Thursday...Mostly clear, quiet, and cool Thursday on deck with ridging aloft and a strong SFC high sliding Eward over SECONUS. Only cloud coverage will be from some thin upper level clouds. Light winds shift from Werly to SWerly through the day as the center of the SFC high drifts off the coast near the GA/SC border. A dry and chilly post- frontal airmass will result in temperatures below average with MaxTs in the low 50s most, upper 40s to ~50 OBX.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
As of 0335 Thursday...Another strong radiational cooling night with ridge dictating light winds and clear skies. Remain on the cool side of guidance although Ts will not be as cold as Wed night. Temps drop sharply after sunset with a more gradual decline through the overnight. MinTs just below freezing inland, mid 30s immediately along the coast, low to mid 40s OBX.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Strong cold front to bring the potential of multiple hazards Sunday/Sunday night
2) Above normal temperatures over the weekend
3) Below normal temperatures next week
FORECAST DETAILS
A potent shortwave will move ashore along the Pacific NW today, dive southeast into the Southern Plains by late Saturday, then lift northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday into Monday. Medium range ensemble guidance have backed off a bit on the strength of the wave as it moves through the Eastern US, but it still appears likely that it will take on a negative tilt as it moves through, the strength of which is still noteworthy. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore on Friday, with a stout return/southerly flow developing over the weekend. A cold front will then march east across the Carolinas Sunday night.
What's most impressive with this system is the kinematics. A strong 50-60kt southerly LLJ is forecast to develop on the warm side of the system, with some guidance forecasting an impressive 60-70kt within the jet. With widespread clouds and showers, heating will be strongly WAA-driven, and mixing should be on the shallow side. Even so, there should be enough mixing into the lower reaches of the LLJ, allowing a fairly widespread area of 30-40 mph winds at times prior to the passage of the cold front, especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Where mixing and the pressure gradient are maximized, gusts of 45+ mph will be possible. Probabilistic guidance gives a 50-60% chance of those higher gusts being reached (highest probs along the coast), and a Wind Advisory may be needed for a portion of the area.
The strong kinematics with this system will also support anomalously strong moisture transport into the region ahead of the front, with PWATs peaking as high as 1.25-1.50". The strong moisture transport will be important for both the rainfall potential and any severe weather potential. Rainfall-wise, guidance differs on where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be, but there's a pretty good signal for 1- 2" of rain given the strong lift overlapping with anomalous moisture. It's been fairly dry over the past week across Eastern NC, and we should be able to handle these rainfall amounts. However, where rainfall rates are the highest, typically flood-prone and urban areas could see some minor hydro issues.
Regarding the convective potential, the strengthening southerly flow will help advect 60s dewpoints into the area, but with warmer temps aloft and weak lapse rates, instability may only top out in the 250- 500 J/kg range. Strong deep layer shear will be present, setting up a conditional high shear/low CAPE severe weather risk. Given the strength of forcing, it's possible that a narrow band, or two, of thunderstorms will develop ahead of the advancing front, capable of pockets of enhanced wind potential. Keep in mind, with the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help mix down some stronger gusts at the surface. As is often the case this time of year, the main limiting factor will be weak instability. Stay tuned as we continue to assess this potential.
Once the front clears the area, a drier and colder airmass is forecast to settle into the region next week. Temperatures will drop back below normal (similar to the past couple of days).
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 0630 Thursday...VFR with SKC, save for upper level cirrus, through the TAF period. Light winds out of the W early back to the SW but remain below 10 kt during the day as high pres in control. Another SKC night with light SWerly winds, too dry for meaningful fog concerns.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
Light winds and VFR conditions are expected on Friday. Conditions will then begin to trend more impactful for aviation over the weekend as a strong cold front moves through. Ahead of the front, sub-VFR CIGs may develop as early as Saturday, becoming increasingly likely on Sunday. Widespread SHRA and scattered TSRA are expected along the front, with IFR conditions possible. Gusty southerly winds will develop Saturday night and last through Sunday evening, before becoming northerly Sunday night. Southerly gusts of 25-35kt are likely during this time, peaking Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 0640 Thursday...NWerly winds currently 5-15kt inland, 10-20G25kt over outer coastal waters, ease and back through Thursday with SFC high sliding off SECONUS near the GA/SC border. Widespread NWerly 10-15kt by midmorning, Werly 10-15kt early afternoon, with a slight bump to 15-20kt in the hours either side of midnight. Seas lay down with the calming winds, currently 5-7ft @ 7-8sec becoming 3-5ft @ 8-9sec waters N of Ocracoke Inlet, 2-3ft @ 6-9sec Sern waters by this afternoon.
SCAs remain in place for lingering seas and will expire with the falling seas; Sern waters drops in twenty minutes, Nern waters at 1200est, Central waters by 1300est.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday
FORECAST DETAILS
High pressure overhead on Friday and Saturday will lead to light winds (5-10kt) and good boating conditions. Seas will be 2-3 ft.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west. This will lead to a strengthening southerly wind and building seas. The worst boating conditions are expected later Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front moves east across the area. The front will be accompanied by a period of gale- force winds over the coastal waters, including the Pamlico Sound, and strong SCA-level winds over the remaining inland rivers and sounds. Over the warmest coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras, model guidance and pattern recognition suggests occasional gusts to storm-force will be possible (40-60% chance). Elsewhere, a solid period of 25-35kt southerly winds can be expected as the front moves through. Seas will respond to the strong southerly flow, and will build to 7-13 ft offshore (5-8 ft close to shore). Inland rivers and sounds will be very choppy to rough. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, and will lead to areas of enhanced wind gusts. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds will lay down to 15-25kt, and seas will eventually follow suite.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 20 mi | 65 min | NNW 8G | 42°F | 30.27 | |||
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 21 mi | 47 min | NNW 5.1G | 39°F | 55°F | 30.24 | ||
| HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 41 mi | 47 min | N 12G | 42°F | 49°F | 30.24 | ||
| 41025 - Diamond Shoals | 48 mi | 35 min | N 14G | 46°F | 75°F | 30.23 | 35°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 20 sm | 7 min | NNW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 32°F | 65% | 30.26 |
Wind History from NBT
(wind in knots)North River Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:02 AM EST 1.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:58 AM EST 0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 05:11 PM EST 1.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:02 AM EST 1.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:58 AM EST 0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 05:11 PM EST 1.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 AM EST 1.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST 0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST 1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 11:26 PM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 AM EST 1.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST 0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST 1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 11:26 PM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Morehead City, NC,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE