Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, NC

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 715 PM Sat... No significant changes to the forecast on this update as everything is tracking relatively well. Previous diurnal Cu field has begun to dissipate on this update and expect light winds and clear skies tonight with an increasing fog threat.

Prev Disc...Will hang on to a slight chance PoP along and west of Highway 17 through 00Z but not expecting much coverage as dry mid level air is inhibiting development as expected.

High pressure will continue to build over the area through Sunday. Skies become mainly clear this evening combined with light winds which will bring good radiational cooling conditions with areas of fog and stratus developing late tonight. Lows expected in the upper 50s inland to mid 60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 245 PM Saturday...Dry forecast continues as weak high pressure originating from the NW slides towards the coast.
Seasonable high temps with highs a degree or two either side of 80 for most inland locations and low to mid 70s immediate coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 0300 Saturday...High pressure late in weekend with a wetter front early next week bringing the next best chance of rain.

Sunday night...Around sunset, the SFC high will be sliding offshore, which will veer winds to become more Serly overnight, leading to a light WAA regime the second half of the overnight, keeps MinTs for mild, around 60 inland, mid 60s beaches.

Early Next Week...Another front crosses through Monday, but this front is associated with a deeper upper level trough, and the column's moisture, while not anomalously high, will be greater than Saturday's front. Although greatest upper level support will be well to the N, there should be enough moisture convergence along the front to justify carrying at least SChc PoPs for this period to cover the possibility of very light rain for FROPA as consistently indicated by the GFS and Euro, but bizarrely omitted by the NBM. This update, have relegated any thunder mention to offshore over the Gulfstream where limited instability will be greatest.

Mid to late week...The airmass behind this stronger early week front will be markedly cooler, mid70/low50 split, some sheltered spots inland may even see MinTs in the 40s by Wednesday morning. This strong ridging behind Monday's front is forecast to shunt any possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico to cross over Florida and then push out to sea over the Atlantic mid- week.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 715 PM Sat... No significant change in the forecast thinking for tonight. Expect VFR conditions through at least 06Z tonight. Afterwards still expecting a mix of low stratus and patchy fog potentially dense at times especially west of Hwy 17 to develop. Currently have fog developing at ISO/PGV closer to 07-08Z and across EWN and OAJ closer to 10Z with a SCT deck of IFR ceilings at all sites for now to account for low clouds.
Either way this dissipates around 13-14Z and VFR conditions are forecast for the rest of SUnday while light winds persist through the period.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 0330 Saturday...VFR flight cats expected to prevail in drier airmass outside of early morning fog potential. A stronger front crosses ENC early next week which will be our next best chance of rain and subVFR flight cats. VFR prevails in high pressure behind the front midweek.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...High pressure will continue over the waters through Sunday. NE winds 15-20 kt will occur through this evening then will diminish slightly overnight and Sunday to 10-15 kt. Seas will continue around 3-5 ft through Sunday with up to 6 ft across the outer central waters and will maintain the SCA between Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 0300 Saturday...NEerly 10-15kt through the weekend. SCA seas for central waters likely continue through at least Monday.
Winds flip around to become SWerly late Sun ahead of the next front to pass through area waters early next week, currently forecasting SWerly 10-20kt S of the front, Nerly 10-15kt N of it. Strong long period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk begins arriving late tonight, peaking early next week. Current forecast has peak swell on the order of 7ft@16sec. In addition to this swell, a potential tropical system is forecast to cross Florida from the Gulf to reach the Atlantic middle of next week, this system will also generate some shorter period, Serly swell on top of the weakening longer period swell from Kirk.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 715 PM Saturday... As we get into early next week, long period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk will arrive along our shores and bring an increased risk for elevated rip currents, dangerous surf, and ocean overwash especially across the more vulnerable areas and areas where the dunes have been compromised along the Outer Banks and Crystal Coast.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.