Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 1:59 PM   Moonset 3:06 AM

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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 1249 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. Fri - NE winds around 15 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers. Mon - NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. Showers, mainly in the morning.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1249 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A weak cold front crosses the region by the end of the work week before another stronger cold front impacts the area next weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 181720 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm and clear conditions expected today. A backdoor cold front crosses the region overnight. More unsettled weather is possible for the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/
As of 1 PM Thu... Previously mentioned cold front has recently reached our N'rn tier with the front extending from W to E across portions of Washington, Tyrell and Dare Counties as of this update as N'rly winds are noted in these areas. Starting to see a Diurnal Cu field pop up as well near the front. Overall did not make many changes to the forecast as the front will continue to sag S'wards this afternoon bringing a shift in wind direction to the area with some marine stratus beginning to overspread the NOBX by this evening.

Prev Disc...Shortwave is quickly racing off the coast, taking minimal precipitation with it and leaving clear skies in its wake. Warm downsloping flow is expected through this afternoon with highs climbing well into the 80s. West to west- northwesterly flow will keep sea and sound breezes pinned along the coast. Sided on the low end of guidance for Tds as models have tend to underestimate mixing in these regimes. By mid- afternoon, surface low sliding off the mid- Atlantic coast will usher a weakening front across NOBX which will eventually help push aforementioned sound breezes inland. The convergence of the breezes and the front pose a low risk of shallow showers - not high enough to warrant mentionable PoPs as column will still remain very dry.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 435 AM Thu...Front will gradually push across the FA through Fri morning although dry conditions will prevail. Low stratus will encroach from the northeast behind the front with moist onshore flow trapped under the frontal inversion. Biggest question overnight is how cool temperatures will get behind the front, particularly across the northern OBX. Knocked lows down into the low 50s across this area, although some hi-res guidance shows a 30-40% chance of lows in the upper 40s. Future forecasts may need to lower MinTs further.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 500 AM Thursday...An active pattern continues into early next week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.

Friday through Friday night...Upper ridge axis cresting over the area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing. Another dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night, which may bring isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Most guidance keeps the best overlap of shear and instability to the west of ENC, but we'll have to monitor trends in guidance as there is a non-zero risk of some stronger afternoon storms west of HWY 17. E to NE onshore flow will bring cooler temps along the coast, especially across the OBX where mid to upper 60s will prevail, but well inland highs expected in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the coast Saturday night. The sea breeze is expected to become dominant pushing inland Saturday afternoon allowing more heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections of ENC which, combined with around 40 kt of shear, could allow for a risk of thunderstorm development, which some could become strong to marginally severe.

Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night with widespread rain developing across the region. Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the chance for a few showers.

Highs Saturday will be around 75-80 north of highway 70 and low 80s to the south but mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast.
A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps will warm to near normal for mid week with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Fri/...
As of 115 PM Thu... VFR conditions remain over ENC this afternoon as a cold front has begun to make its way into the area. Ahead of the front west to northwest winds will persist, occasionally gusting to 15 kts at times this afternoon while behind the front winds will shift to a north to northeast direction generally around 5-10 kts. This front will be nearing our southern zones by tonight before stalling out with a frontal inversion setting up behind the front. This inversion will trap whatever moisture we have in the lower levels allowing for low stratus to eventually develop generally after the 03-06Z timeframe first impacting the NOBX and eventually making its way SW'wards across the FA after 06Z. There is still some uncertainty with how far this low stratus deck makes it, but with the most recent guidance it looks to make it as far SW as EWN so have included an IFR ceiling deck from here to points NE'ward in the TAF's. Across the rest of the terminals ISO/PGV/OAJ there remains too much uncertainty for lower ceilings so have just kept a SCT MVFR deck in these other locations though adjustments may need to be made in coming updates. Otherwise marine stratus eventually lifts by mid morning allowing VFR conditions to return across all of ENC.
Winds generally remain light through the entire period.

LONG TERM /Friday evening through Monday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers or storms late in the day as mid level shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes. Improving conditions are expected on Monday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 445 AM Thu...Winds are so far under-performing hi-res guidance across area waters, with only infrequent gusts to 25 kt across the Pamlico Sound and central waters ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave. Seas have primarily remained under 6 feet with the exception over Diamond Shoals. Trend is for winds to gradually ease as disturbance exits the region. By this afternoon, backdoor cold front will gradually cross area waters from northeast to south ushering in another surge of 10-15 kt northeasterly flow with a few gusts to 20+ kt likely primarily overnight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...An active pattern will prevail in the long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. NE winds around 10-20 kt Friday morning will become variable around 10 kt or less by late in the day as high pressure ridging into the area weakens. Variable winds around 10 kt or less Friday night becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on Saturday as another cold front drops into the area and stalls offshore. Low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night into Monday with NE winds around 15-25 kt. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters through Saturday but will build to 3 to 6 ft Sunday and peak Monday around 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters and 6-10 ft across the central waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sea Level, Core Sound, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Thu -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
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North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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