Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, NC
May 14, 2024 6:53 AM EDT (10:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 10:49 AM Moonset 12:36 AM |
AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 332 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through late Wednesday night - .
Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft this afternoon. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds, becoming S 7 ft at 6 seconds and ne 2 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to rough. A chance of showers until late afternoon, then showers likely late.
Tonight - SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Wave detail: se 8 ft at 7 seconds and ne 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: se 6 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night - N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri - N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night - E winds around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 332 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area today into tomorrow. Widespread sca conditions expected later this morning through tonight, progressing from south to north. Low probability of gales across outer portions of onslow bay this afternoon. High pressure builds in late Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 140931 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 531 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area today into tomorrow. High pressure builds in late Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 415 AM Tue...Mid-level ridge axis has crested over the Carolinas this morning, allowing heights to fall as a central plains closed low and associated shortwave trough digging into the lower MS Valley shift eastward. At the surface, high pressure centered a few hundred miles offshore is gradually weakening while complex low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast.
Increasingly inclement weather is expected today as the mid- level trough and associated surface low lift towards our area over the next 24 hours. Light isentropically driven showers are increasing in coverage across the Carolinas and Virginia this morning and will continue to do so through the AM hours from west to east. QPF amounts will amount to a tenth of an inch or less.
The most impactful rainfall will lift across the region later this afternoon as the aforementioned frontal boundary to our south lifts north with a wave of low pressure migrating along it. The combination of strong frontogenetic forcing and upper level support with an approaching vort max strongly suggest numerous to widespread coverage of showers, and raised PoPs to 100% for most of the area. Of additional concern is the risk of very heavy rainfall, given very saturated model soundings and forecast PWATs soaring north of 1.75". For climatological context, the 90th percentile of PWATs for today is around 1.50".
Daytime rainfall totals will approach an inch along and west of Highway 17.
Persistent cloud cover and rain will keep the diurnal curve today relatively flat, but it will still be warm and muggy with highs in the low 70s and dew points pushing into the mid to upper 60s especially along the coast.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 430 AM Tue...Once the warm front crosses the region in the evening, instability will quickly increase behind it and a few thunderstorms are possible. Given long skinny CAPE profiles, these storms could result in isolated but strong downpours and pose a risk for flooding particularly in urban and poor drainage areas, despite dry antecedent conditions. HRRR guidance, as well as NBM probabilistic output, point to a low (10%) risk of storm total rainfall amounts pushing up to 3" wherever these cells may track. Heavier band of rainfall will lift across the Outer Banks through midnight.
A brief lull in precipitation is likely after midnight as dry slot moves overhead, but a few stray showers and thunderstorms are still possible and kept PoPs at chance for the period. Very mild temperatures overnight, falling into the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 515 AM Tuesday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. A better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear. SPC has a marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storms across the coastal plain on Wednesday. Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the low to mid 80s
Thursday through Monday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and will keep slight chance PoPs. Ridging crests over the area Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the weekend.
But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wed/...
As of 155 AM Tue...There is a high chance (90%) of sub-VFR flight conditions over the next 24 hours with a high chance (70%) of IFR or worse.
VFR conditions prevail over area terminals early this morning, but conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate through today as a complex area of low pressure currently draped along the Gulf Coast lifts towards the Carolinas tonight.
Isentropically-driven showers are expected to begin around dawn, migrating across terminals from the south and west, and prevailing MVFR conditions will accompany this activity. The heaviest rainfall will most likely occur after 18z as strongest lift, juxtaposed with deepest moisture, pivots across ENC from the southwest. Predominantly IFR conditions are likely with this heavier activity and will linger through the remainder of the period. A few thunderstorms are possible mainly for EWN and OAJ after 21-22z.
Southeasterly winds gust this afternoon to 15-20 kt, then calm and veer south to southwesterly as surface low lifts across NC late tonight.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 5 AM Tuesday...A low pressure system will impact the area through Wednesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another frontal system will approach the area bringing increasing clouds with sub-VFR possible Friday night into Saturday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 435 AM Tue...Increasingly inclement boating conditions expected over the waters today as complex area of low pressure currently over the Gulf Coast lifts towards the Carolinas.
Current southeasterly winds of 10-15 kt will gradually increase through today as pressure gradient is pinched, with a surge to 20-25 kt migrating across the waters from south to north through tonight. Offshore, seas will quickly build in response reaching 6-8 feet particularly across Onslow and Raleigh Bays.
As low and attendant warm front cross the waters tonight, winds will veer southwesterly and decrease to around 10-15 kt. Still, seas will be slow to respond and remain above 6 feet through the end of the period. Inherited SCA headlines look excellent and were retained apart from a modest timing change for the waters north of Oregon Inlet.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 515 AM Tuesday...Low pressure will pull away from the waters on Wednesday while a cold front pushes through Wednesday night and Thursday. SW winds around 15 kt Wednesday becomes Nly Wednesday night behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue with seas around 5-7 ft early Wednesday, gradually subsiding to below 6 ft late Wednesday/Wednesday night. High pressure build into the area Thursday night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday with winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt Friday night and Saturday ahead of the next frontal system with seas around 3-5 ft.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 531 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area today into tomorrow. High pressure builds in late Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 415 AM Tue...Mid-level ridge axis has crested over the Carolinas this morning, allowing heights to fall as a central plains closed low and associated shortwave trough digging into the lower MS Valley shift eastward. At the surface, high pressure centered a few hundred miles offshore is gradually weakening while complex low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast.
Increasingly inclement weather is expected today as the mid- level trough and associated surface low lift towards our area over the next 24 hours. Light isentropically driven showers are increasing in coverage across the Carolinas and Virginia this morning and will continue to do so through the AM hours from west to east. QPF amounts will amount to a tenth of an inch or less.
The most impactful rainfall will lift across the region later this afternoon as the aforementioned frontal boundary to our south lifts north with a wave of low pressure migrating along it. The combination of strong frontogenetic forcing and upper level support with an approaching vort max strongly suggest numerous to widespread coverage of showers, and raised PoPs to 100% for most of the area. Of additional concern is the risk of very heavy rainfall, given very saturated model soundings and forecast PWATs soaring north of 1.75". For climatological context, the 90th percentile of PWATs for today is around 1.50".
Daytime rainfall totals will approach an inch along and west of Highway 17.
Persistent cloud cover and rain will keep the diurnal curve today relatively flat, but it will still be warm and muggy with highs in the low 70s and dew points pushing into the mid to upper 60s especially along the coast.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 430 AM Tue...Once the warm front crosses the region in the evening, instability will quickly increase behind it and a few thunderstorms are possible. Given long skinny CAPE profiles, these storms could result in isolated but strong downpours and pose a risk for flooding particularly in urban and poor drainage areas, despite dry antecedent conditions. HRRR guidance, as well as NBM probabilistic output, point to a low (10%) risk of storm total rainfall amounts pushing up to 3" wherever these cells may track. Heavier band of rainfall will lift across the Outer Banks through midnight.
A brief lull in precipitation is likely after midnight as dry slot moves overhead, but a few stray showers and thunderstorms are still possible and kept PoPs at chance for the period. Very mild temperatures overnight, falling into the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 515 AM Tuesday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. A better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear. SPC has a marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storms across the coastal plain on Wednesday. Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the low to mid 80s
Thursday through Monday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and will keep slight chance PoPs. Ridging crests over the area Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the weekend.
But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wed/...
As of 155 AM Tue...There is a high chance (90%) of sub-VFR flight conditions over the next 24 hours with a high chance (70%) of IFR or worse.
VFR conditions prevail over area terminals early this morning, but conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate through today as a complex area of low pressure currently draped along the Gulf Coast lifts towards the Carolinas tonight.
Isentropically-driven showers are expected to begin around dawn, migrating across terminals from the south and west, and prevailing MVFR conditions will accompany this activity. The heaviest rainfall will most likely occur after 18z as strongest lift, juxtaposed with deepest moisture, pivots across ENC from the southwest. Predominantly IFR conditions are likely with this heavier activity and will linger through the remainder of the period. A few thunderstorms are possible mainly for EWN and OAJ after 21-22z.
Southeasterly winds gust this afternoon to 15-20 kt, then calm and veer south to southwesterly as surface low lifts across NC late tonight.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 5 AM Tuesday...A low pressure system will impact the area through Wednesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another frontal system will approach the area bringing increasing clouds with sub-VFR possible Friday night into Saturday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 435 AM Tue...Increasingly inclement boating conditions expected over the waters today as complex area of low pressure currently over the Gulf Coast lifts towards the Carolinas.
Current southeasterly winds of 10-15 kt will gradually increase through today as pressure gradient is pinched, with a surge to 20-25 kt migrating across the waters from south to north through tonight. Offshore, seas will quickly build in response reaching 6-8 feet particularly across Onslow and Raleigh Bays.
As low and attendant warm front cross the waters tonight, winds will veer southwesterly and decrease to around 10-15 kt. Still, seas will be slow to respond and remain above 6 feet through the end of the period. Inherited SCA headlines look excellent and were retained apart from a modest timing change for the waters north of Oregon Inlet.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 515 AM Tuesday...Low pressure will pull away from the waters on Wednesday while a cold front pushes through Wednesday night and Thursday. SW winds around 15 kt Wednesday becomes Nly Wednesday night behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue with seas around 5-7 ft early Wednesday, gradually subsiding to below 6 ft late Wednesday/Wednesday night. High pressure build into the area Thursday night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday with winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt Friday night and Saturday ahead of the next frontal system with seas around 3-5 ft.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 20 mi | 53 min | SSE 13G | 70°F | 30.04 | |||
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 21 mi | 53 min | S 5.1G | 71°F | 71°F | 30.01 | ||
| HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 41 mi | 53 min | SSE 7G | 67°F | 67°F | 30.08 | ||
| 41025 - Diamond Shoals | 48 mi | 33 min | S 12G | 61°F | 30.06 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 20 sm | 55 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 64°F | 78% | 30.03 |
North River Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:14 AM EDT 1.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:44 PM EDT 1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:14 AM EDT 1.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:44 PM EDT 1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:57 AM EDT 1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:27 PM EDT 1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:51 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:57 AM EDT 1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:27 PM EDT 1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:51 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Morehead City, NC,
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