Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garey, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...21/405 AM.

Onshore flow is strengthening early this morning as broad weak troughing develops over the West Coast. Surface pressure gradients are trending about a millibar more strongly onshore. Clouds are well-entrenched along the Central Coast but struggling to form inside the southern California bight and along the South Coast of California due to high cloudiness aloft playing tricks on the marine layer depth. As the morning progresses, high clouds should lessen in coverage and allow for better low clouds coverage into the bight and the Los Angeles and Ventura County coast.

Onshore flow will continue to strengthen through the period as weak troughing will remain anchored off the West Coast. Low clouds and fog will become more entrenched tonight and into Tuesday morning as onshore flow strengthens. The marine layer depth will deepen each night and morning, deepening from around 700 feet at KLAX this morning to near 2000 feet deep by Tuesday morning, then to near 2500 feet deep by Wednesday morning. Clouds should make a return to the Los Angeles and Ventura County valleys tonight and into Tuesday morning. Patchy late night and early morning drizzle cannot be ruled out tonight and into Tuesday morning, but there is a higher chance on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

With the stronger onshore trends taking shape each day, low clouds and fog will likely struggle to clear from the beaches and immediate coast over the coming days. As a result, temperatures will be below seasonal normals for this time of year, especially at the beaches and near the coast.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...21/402 AM.

Onshore flow and a deep marine layer will be the main story through Friday. Night through morning low clouds and fog with drizzle will likely push well into the coastal slopes of the mountains. The forecast ensembles all advertise much cooler conditions lingering with temperatures below seasonal normals into late week. Gusty onshore winds, each afternoon and evening across the interior portion, could reach advisory levels in the foothills of the Antelope Valley, especially if 10 mb onshore gradients develop.

While the forecast ensembles agree well through Friday, the ensemble spread starts to widen over next weekend and into next week. Cluster analysis favors troughing lingering over the region into Friday or Saturday, then the clusters start to diverge.
Thereafter, the most likely scenario suggest ridging aloft building, giving a 56 percent chance of occuring. EPS forecast ensembles lean toward warming for next weekend in the maximum temperature means. The forecast goes with NBM values for the current time.

AVIATION
21/1133Z.

At 1100Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was around 700 feet deep.
The top of the inversion was 2100 feet with a temperatures of 18 degrees Celsius.

Overall for 12Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs with moderate confidence for coastal/valley sites. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites due to uncertainties with the marine layer stratus. Moderate confidence in timing of flight category changes (+/- 3 hours of current forecasts) for TAFs north of Point Conception. For sites south of Point Conception, there is a 50% chance of VFR conditions or IFR/LIFR this morning.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 50% chance that IFR conditions do not develop 12Z-17Z. For tonight, moderate confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions as well as timing of flight category changes (+/- 3 hours of current forecasts). No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in VFR conditions. For tonight, moderate confidence in return of IFR conditions with moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours of current 10Z forecast).

MARINE
21/1258 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 10-20% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds, mainly around Point Conception. For Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds across all the Outer Waters. For Wednesday through Friday, the chances for SCA level winds increase to 60-80%.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday through Friday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds Wednesday through Friday, mainly during the late afternoon through evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.