Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 8:15 PM   Moonset 6:01 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 240814 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 414 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Morning Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Slight chance of light showers across portions of Central GA this afternoon and again S of Columbus area on Thursday associated with a weak front.

A weak shortwave trough will move across the E Great Lakes and OH Valley region this morning. At the surface, a very weak cold front will sink S into the area today. Isolated showers may develop this afternoon along and just ahead of the front as it continues to sink S across Central GA. Have continued to include very light QPF amounts in that area along with 15% PoPs. Instability and dynamic support continue to look meager. It appears there will be a small amount of CAPE around cloud level (4-6kt) with a narrow dry layer just above. Confidence is low that much in the way of measurable rainfall will be realized. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 60s across the NE mountains to near 80 across the S. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s across the extreme NE to the upper 50s S and SE of Macon. Some patchy fog is possible around the Columbus area.

The front will stall over the extreme S tonight and begin to lift back N as a warm front on Thursday. There may be a few more showers along this boundary Thursday afternoon across the extreme SW corner of the County Warning Area, but QPF values are again very low. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 70s in the extreme NE to the mid 80s in the extreme SE.

SEC

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Highlights:

-The next opportunity for any appreciable rainfall now holds off until early next week.

-Slightly above normal temperatures (excluding far NE GA) through the period.

At the start of the long term period (Thursday night) a frontal boundary will be lifting back north as a warm front and while guidance still largely keeps the forecast area dry would not be surprised if some light rain showers and/or sprinkles occur in the vicinity of the front in addition to increased cloud cover. A wedge of high pressure is still slated to develop across the northeast on Friday resulting in cooler conditions in Northeast GA. As noted in the previous forecast discussion the past few model runs indicates slower timing of the next two closed low systems that develop east of the Rockies. Thus, any notable rainfall now looks to hold off until the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.
Midlevel ridging shifts east covering much of the eastern CONUS Friday into Saturday resulting in the return of southwesterly flow. At the surface, a wedge will become more prominent across the northeast and southerly flow continues to increase at the lowest levels. Gradual moisture return in the way of increasing cloud cover can be expected through the weekend. Midlevel ridging holds steady and becomes more amplified extending up the East Coast through the weekend and into Monday. At the same time, the second closed low system that develops east of the Rockies will travel NNE towards the Great Lakes Region with the surface boundary inching eastward potentially becoming stalled just to our west. The current forecast has rain chances starting to increase across NW GA Monday afternoon and persisting through Tuesday.
Details will continue to become defined over the next several days.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the long term period for much of Central Georgia. Forecast highs will generally be in the 70s and 80s potentially reaching the upper 80s by early next week.
Cooler temperatures can be expected for areas under the influence of the CAD wedge (across parts of North GA) particularly on Friday with forecast highs in the 50s/60s. Forecast lows will range from the 50s to low 60s through the period.

07

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast remains basically unchanged, with VFR conditions expected to continue. A very weak frontal boundary will sink S through the area today, bringing the possibility of isolated light showers, particularly from the S portion of the Atlanta metro area into central GA. There is uncertainty whether these showers will materialize, as there will be minimal dynamic or thermodynamic support. Some small amount of CAPE will exist around 5kft, but there may also be a shallow dry layer right above the moisture and lift.
Have opted for PROB30 -SHRA at ATL and FTY with VCSH at PDK, RYY, and AHN. Cigs should stay above 3kft. Winds will be generally light SW shifting to NW upon boundary passage, with a few gusts to near 20 kts possible in the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
Medium for shower development, high on all other elements.

SEC

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 77 51 78 56 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 76 54 79 59 / 10 0 0 10 Blairsville 69 44 74 52 / 10 0 0 10 Cartersville 74 47 79 57 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 80 57 83 62 / 0 0 10 0 Gainesville 74 51 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 80 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 10 Rome 74 47 79 57 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 78 52 81 59 / 10 0 0 10 Vidalia 80 59 83 61 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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