Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hiawassee, GA
December 10, 2023 9:45 AM EST (14:45 UTC)
Sunrise 7:29AM Sunset 5:27PM Moonrise 5:07AM Moonset 3:32PM
Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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FXUS62 KFFC 101419 AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 919 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
New Update Because the Tornado Watch has Ended
UPDATE
Issued at 911 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
While a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather will continue in portions of east central Georgia through around 2 PM, the overall risk for tornados has decreased significantly. Thus we allowed the Tornado Watch to expire naturally at 9 AM. Anyone residing in east central Georgia should remain cognizant of the potential for thunderstorms through early afternoon. Across northern and west central Georgia a lack of instability and post frontal conditions should result in intermittent rain showers through the rest of today.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Main concern remains ongoing threat for severe storms with isolated areas of damaging winds and a brief tornado the main threats. Fortunately, the convection ahead of the main line has filled in and not intense as it was a few hours earlier, though there is a supercell with a history of brief tornadoes just SW of Stewart county that if it holds together could push into Webster, Sumter and other areas further east.
Timing of main line of storms should push through as expected with the cold front and strong NW winds a few hours behind the line.
Clearing will be very slow but could start pushing in from the west around sunset. Winds should gust up to 30 mph but should remain below advisory criteria.
So far we've been able to handle the rainfall with greatest amounts as of 3 AM of 2 inches over far NW GA. No plans to issue any kind of flood watch.
Potential for light snow in higher elevations of NE GA also no longer expected due to strong CAA and patchy precip pushing well east before critical temps reached.
Monday looks good with clear skies, cool daytime temps and moderate NW winds.
SNELSON
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Latest model guidance did not deviate too much from previous runs.
Still appears next chance for precip not until Friday night or Saturday as upper low tries to dig into the Gulf of Mexico and flow aloft in the region becomes SWly and warm/moist advection returns. Still seeing differences between model suites but nothing terribly significant. Until then, dry weather with seasonable temps expected. See previous discussion for more information on overall pattern and any fire weather impacts.
SNELSON
Previous Long Term Discussion: Issued at 143 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry weather is forecast in Georgia through Friday.
- Morning low temperatures should dip into the 20s along and north of Interstate 85 Monday and Tuesday.
- Rain chances return to the region next weekend.
Monday through Wednesday:
Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure should keep our weather dry during this period. The fair weather conditions will be favorable for chilly overnight temperatures. This will be especially true on Monday and Tuesday mornings when limited cloud cover, light winds, and low humidity should allow morning lows to dip into the 20s along and north of Interstate 85. With a relatively dry airmass in place, afternoon high temperatures should recover fairly well each day. Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s on Monday should trend towards upper 50s on Wednesday.
It continues to look like low relative humidity values (30-35%)
could have us flirting with near critical fire danger conditions in the north Georgia mountains Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The deciding factor may be how fuels respond to this weekends rainfall. For now it looks like there is a roughly a 25% chance of us issuing a Fire Danger Statement for the region each afternoon.
Thursday and Friday:
The majority of the GEFS and EPS ensemble members favor weak upper level ridging in our region during this period. With this in mind our forecast remains dry for both Thursday and Friday. Overall confidence in the precipitation forecast is lowest for Friday and Friday night due to timing uncertainties with the next potential trough as it moves east from Texas and/or the Gulf of Mexico.
Over the last 24 hours our temperature forecast has trended downward slightly for this period. We now expect afternoon highs to be near seasonal averages (low to mid 50s). This trend has shown up in both the EPS and GEFS guidance and is linked to the strength of a surface high (cooler airmass) shifting east from the Central Plains. Spreads in the NBM high temperature guidance (25th to 75th percentiles)
remain large for this period as well, generally around 10 degrees.
The Outlook for Next Weekend:
Ensemble guidance leans towards weak troughing in the region next weekend. Due to this rain chances (20 to 40%) creep back into the NBM and subsequently our forecast Saturday and Sunday. At this time around 75% over the GEFS and EPS members have some accumulating precipitation in our region next weekend.
Albright
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Some VFR conditions this morning at ATL metro airports in the wake of storms that moved through a few hours ago will quickly fall back to IFR as colder air and light rain move in. MVFR conditions not expected until after 19Z. TSRA only expected at MCN which should move thru by 16Z. NW winds will increase this afternoon to 14-18kts with gusts of 24-28kts and persist into the evening before decreasing after midnight.
//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Medium confidence on IFR timing this morning.
High confidence on all other elements.
SNELSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 31 52 29 54 / 60 0 0 0 Atlanta 31 48 31 53 / 20 0 0 0 Blairsville 26 44 26 52 / 30 0 0 0 Cartersville 28 48 25 55 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 33 54 31 58 / 20 0 0 0 Gainesville 32 49 30 52 / 30 0 0 0 Macon 33 54 30 56 / 60 0 0 0 Rome 28 51 26 56 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 29 50 27 54 / 20 0 0 0 Vidalia 36 55 34 57 / 80 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 919 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
New Update Because the Tornado Watch has Ended
UPDATE
Issued at 911 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
While a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather will continue in portions of east central Georgia through around 2 PM, the overall risk for tornados has decreased significantly. Thus we allowed the Tornado Watch to expire naturally at 9 AM. Anyone residing in east central Georgia should remain cognizant of the potential for thunderstorms through early afternoon. Across northern and west central Georgia a lack of instability and post frontal conditions should result in intermittent rain showers through the rest of today.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Main concern remains ongoing threat for severe storms with isolated areas of damaging winds and a brief tornado the main threats. Fortunately, the convection ahead of the main line has filled in and not intense as it was a few hours earlier, though there is a supercell with a history of brief tornadoes just SW of Stewart county that if it holds together could push into Webster, Sumter and other areas further east.
Timing of main line of storms should push through as expected with the cold front and strong NW winds a few hours behind the line.
Clearing will be very slow but could start pushing in from the west around sunset. Winds should gust up to 30 mph but should remain below advisory criteria.
So far we've been able to handle the rainfall with greatest amounts as of 3 AM of 2 inches over far NW GA. No plans to issue any kind of flood watch.
Potential for light snow in higher elevations of NE GA also no longer expected due to strong CAA and patchy precip pushing well east before critical temps reached.
Monday looks good with clear skies, cool daytime temps and moderate NW winds.
SNELSON
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Latest model guidance did not deviate too much from previous runs.
Still appears next chance for precip not until Friday night or Saturday as upper low tries to dig into the Gulf of Mexico and flow aloft in the region becomes SWly and warm/moist advection returns. Still seeing differences between model suites but nothing terribly significant. Until then, dry weather with seasonable temps expected. See previous discussion for more information on overall pattern and any fire weather impacts.
SNELSON
Previous Long Term Discussion: Issued at 143 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry weather is forecast in Georgia through Friday.
- Morning low temperatures should dip into the 20s along and north of Interstate 85 Monday and Tuesday.
- Rain chances return to the region next weekend.
Monday through Wednesday:
Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure should keep our weather dry during this period. The fair weather conditions will be favorable for chilly overnight temperatures. This will be especially true on Monday and Tuesday mornings when limited cloud cover, light winds, and low humidity should allow morning lows to dip into the 20s along and north of Interstate 85. With a relatively dry airmass in place, afternoon high temperatures should recover fairly well each day. Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s on Monday should trend towards upper 50s on Wednesday.
It continues to look like low relative humidity values (30-35%)
could have us flirting with near critical fire danger conditions in the north Georgia mountains Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The deciding factor may be how fuels respond to this weekends rainfall. For now it looks like there is a roughly a 25% chance of us issuing a Fire Danger Statement for the region each afternoon.
Thursday and Friday:
The majority of the GEFS and EPS ensemble members favor weak upper level ridging in our region during this period. With this in mind our forecast remains dry for both Thursday and Friday. Overall confidence in the precipitation forecast is lowest for Friday and Friday night due to timing uncertainties with the next potential trough as it moves east from Texas and/or the Gulf of Mexico.
Over the last 24 hours our temperature forecast has trended downward slightly for this period. We now expect afternoon highs to be near seasonal averages (low to mid 50s). This trend has shown up in both the EPS and GEFS guidance and is linked to the strength of a surface high (cooler airmass) shifting east from the Central Plains. Spreads in the NBM high temperature guidance (25th to 75th percentiles)
remain large for this period as well, generally around 10 degrees.
The Outlook for Next Weekend:
Ensemble guidance leans towards weak troughing in the region next weekend. Due to this rain chances (20 to 40%) creep back into the NBM and subsequently our forecast Saturday and Sunday. At this time around 75% over the GEFS and EPS members have some accumulating precipitation in our region next weekend.
Albright
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Some VFR conditions this morning at ATL metro airports in the wake of storms that moved through a few hours ago will quickly fall back to IFR as colder air and light rain move in. MVFR conditions not expected until after 19Z. TSRA only expected at MCN which should move thru by 16Z. NW winds will increase this afternoon to 14-18kts with gusts of 24-28kts and persist into the evening before decreasing after midnight.
//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Medium confidence on IFR timing this morning.
High confidence on all other elements.
SNELSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 31 52 29 54 / 60 0 0 0 Atlanta 31 48 31 53 / 20 0 0 0 Blairsville 26 44 26 52 / 30 0 0 0 Cartersville 28 48 25 55 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 33 54 31 58 / 20 0 0 0 Gainesville 32 49 30 52 / 30 0 0 0 Macon 33 54 30 56 / 60 0 0 0 Rome 28 51 26 56 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 29 50 27 54 / 20 0 0 0 Vidalia 36 55 34 57 / 80 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDZJ BLAIRSVILLE,GA | 16 sm | 10 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 54°F | 54°F | 100% | 29.90 |
| KRHP WESTERN CAROLINA RGNL,NC | 21 sm | 14 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 54°F | 52°F | 94% | 29.91 |
Wind History from RHP
(wind in knots)
Greer, SC,
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