Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Maria, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...13/759 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion was around 1300 ft deep early this evening and should deepen some overnight. Low clouds never really cleared off the coast much today and were already expanding along the coast and moving inland over much of the coastal plain. The low clouds will push a bit further inland into the adjacent vlys overnight. Low clouds and fog are also expected to develop over the southern Salinas Vly in SLO County late tonight. Patchy drizzle cannot be ruled out with the low clouds late tonight as well. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies will prevail thru the night. Breezy to gusty SW to W winds, strongest over the L.A. County mtns and Antelope Vly foothills, will slowly diminish overnight.

The current forecast is on track in the short-term and do not anticipate any zone updates this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

Continued minimal day to day changes are expected through Wednesday. A weak high pressure system of 595 to 596 dam will remain over the region with slight changes through Monday morning, and continue to break down over the Monday night through Wednesday period, slowly lowering heights to 591 dam by Tuesday.
Additionally, strong onshore flow will continue with gradients peaking during the afternoon hours both to the east (5 to 9 mb)
and to the north (4 to 6 mb).

Thanks to this strong onshore flow, night through morning low clouds and fog will continue to make an appearance into coastal valleys through the days, with slow to minimal clearing at the west-facing beaches each day. An early return of marine layer clouds will also occur as a result of the strong onshore gradients. Additionally, with the deep marine layer and the strong temperature inversion overtop due to high pressure, patchy drizzle will be possible across the coasts and valleys during the morning hours Monday and Tuesday, similar to this morning.

Max temperatures on Monday will be very similar to todays, with 70s across the coasts (mid to upper 60s beaches) and 80s and lower 90s in the valleys. These max temps are mostly 3 to 6 degrees below normal for this time of year. The interior areas such as Cuyama and Antelope Valley, however, with no marine influence will continue to see max temps from 100 to 105 each day which is 5 degrees above normal. The lower heights on Tuesday and Wednesday (both will be very similar) will bring max temps down by 2 to 4 degrees at the coasts and 3 to 6 degrees elsewhere.

Lastly, gusty onshore winds will continue across interior areas such as the western Antelope Valley and foothills each afternoon and evening. These winds will be near advisory levels, but only a few of the typical gusty locations will see gusts near 45 mph.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...13/232 PM.

For the long term period at the surface, the strong onshore flow will continue through Thursday, and may even become a mb stronger, before starting to weaken Thursday night through Friday. As for the upper level pattern, high pressure will linger over the Great Basin, with a weak low pressure system near SoCal (opening the door for some easterly flow into the region starting Thursday afternoon).

The conditions for Thursday will be very similar to Tuesday/Wednesday. The night through morning low clouds and fog will continue unabated and the beaches will continue to struggle with clearing. Max temps will continue to run 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees below normal with highs only in the 80s across the valleys. Strong onshore flow will continue to bring gusty (likely advisory level) winds to some of the mountains as well as the western portions of the Antelope Valley and foothills.

Thursday afternoon/evening, both the GFS and EC deterministic runs, as well as the majority of their ensembles, are starting to agree that moisture between 850 and 500 mb will move into the region from the SE and really ramp up Friday into the weekend.
The NBM has little in the way of cloud cover forecast, but would not be surprised is skies were at least partly cloudy. As of now, the highest probability for monsoonal thunderstorms remains the the E and SE of our region, however, there is still a 10 to 15 percent chance for thunderstorms across the LA/Ventura interior mountains and the Antelope Valley during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday through Sunday.

AVIATION
14/0602Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4100 feet with a max temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

MDT confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by 90 minutes. There is a 20 percent chc of SCT conds for 1 to 2 hours in the afternoon at sites with no clearing fcst.

There is a 20% chc for cigs 002-004 at KPRB between 12Z and 16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of clearing (or brief) from 21Z to 00Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight may be off +/- 2 hours. There a 30 percent chc of cigs below 005.

MARINE
13/708 PM.

Through this evening, localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W to NW winds may impact the waters around Point Conception south to the Channel Islands, western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel and nearshore from Point Mugu to Pacific Palisades.

Otherwise, relatively benign conditions are expected through Thursday, with the exception of patchy dense fog tonight into tomorrow morning. SCA level winds focused across the outer waters may become more widespread Friday into the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.