Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 3:54 PM   Moonset 3:58 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 136 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers late. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers. Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight. Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of tstms. Showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Rain with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Tue - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, then becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the evening, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon, then diminishing to light chop. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 136 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A cold front tracks south across the region and stalls just offshore on Saturday. An area of low pressure will lift ne along the front Sunday bringing rain across the region. High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.

FXUS62 KMHX 200633 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 233 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front tracks south across the region and stalls just offshore on Saturday. An area of low pressure will lift NE along the front Sunday bringing rain across the region. High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 2 AM Saturday...Low stratus is over much of the area, and fog has started building in for southern portions of the CWA
Will keep an eye on observations, but given current trends, a SPS for patchy dense fog is likely as we approach sunrise.
A small cluster of thunderstorms is just west of Fayetteville, but are expected to weaken as they approach Duplin and Lenoir Counties. While a few rumbles of thunder is possible, it will largely become showers with light to moderate rainfall. NAM3km is the outlier, showing thunderstorms advancing as far east as hwy 17 before falling apart. Given the propensity for the NAM3km to overdo convection, decided to exclude that outcome from this forecast, but the progression of these storms will be closely monitored over the next hour. Outside of MLCAPE > 500 J/KG, thunderstorm parameters are not supportive of sustained thunderstorm organization.

More mild temperatures are likely tonight as the frontal boundary continues to lift northward, with lows in the low 60s inland and mid 50s across NOBX.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 230 PM Saturday...No major changes with this update. As of 330 PM Fri... SW'rly flow will continue to persist across the region Sat morning before the next cold front sweeps southwards across ENC Sat afternoon shifting the winds behind this front to a NE'rly direction. Any leftover shower activity from the previous evenings activity will be quickly pushing out to sea Sat morning with perhaps the biggest change to the forecast for Sat being a reduction in PoP's Sat afternoon. Latest thinking is that there will no longer be much forcing with the incoming front which should keep the Coastal Plain dry while maybe a few showers develop along the OBX and Crystal Coast Sat afternoon as the front makes its way through. Though capped PoP's at SChc along the coast and OBX given the downward trend in precip potential. Otherwise temps get into the low to mid 70s inland and into the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX on Sat.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern with several frontal passages and an area of low pressure lifting off the coast early next week.

Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday. There remains some timing differences with the low but expect widespread rain to develop across the area Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts expected around a half to one inch with highest amounts occuring along the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep cooler temps across the area with highs expected in the low to mid 60s.

Most of the rain will push offshore Sunday night but an upper trough will push across the Southeast which may trigger additional showers across the area on Monday, however guidance has been trending farther south and weaker with the trough which may keep us on the drier side. Below normal temps continue on Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture appears to be limited with this system. High pressure builds back into the area on Thursday with dry conditions prevailing.
A warming trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday.
Temps cool back to the low to mid 70s Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...LIFR ceilings dominate, and LIFR fog has started building in for southern terminals, slowly expanding northward. Ceilings then begin to improve to MVFR late Sat morning as the area becomes wedged between the front that moves through tonight and a second front coming in from the north late Sat. Fog lifts shortly after 12Z, but ceilings don't become firmly VFR until we get into the evening/night hours Saturday.
Light winds persist across the region through the period.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along hwy 17 and the Crystal Coast in the afternoon Saturday along a sea breeze.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 530 AM Friday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers as mid level shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
Improving conditions are expected on Monday with pred VFR expected Tuesday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Fri... Weak warm front will lift N'wards across our waters this evening allowing E'rly winds to veer to a SE and eventually a SW'rly direction tonight while winds remain around 5-15 kts. A cold front then sweeps S'wards across the area Sat afternoon once again shifting winds behind the front to a N'rly direction at 10-20 kts with only a few gusts mainly along the Gulf Stream waters to about 25 kts Sat afternoon. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through the period precluding any issuance of SCA's across our waters through the period

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The front will stall off the coast Saturday night with winds diminishing to around 15 kt or less but low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night into Monday bringing a period NE winds around 15-25 kt, strongest Sunday night into Monday morning.
High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic on Tuesday with NE winds around 10-20 kt continuing across the waters. Seas expected to be around 3-5 ft Saturday into Sunday morning, then will build to 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters and 6-9 ft across the central waters Sunday night and Monday. Seas will gradually subside Monday night and Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 01:33 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Spooner Creek
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Sat -- 02:31 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:20 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

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