Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neuse Forest, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) A low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches (highest along the coast) through tonight.

2) Well above normal to near record high temperatures are expected mid to late next week.

AVIATION...Widespread IFR conditions expected this evening through Monday morning, along with a threat for LLWS impacts.

MARINE...Strong Small Craft and Gale conditions will develop by this evening as a low pressure systems passes over ENC tonight.
Gale Force winds will continue through Monday for portions of the coastal waters as the low deepens and pulls away from the coast.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system will track east across the Gulf states today, northeast towards the Carolinas this evening, and off the Outer Banks by late tonight. Showers will become more widespread this afternoon as the low continues to spin eastward. The heaviest rain will occur tonight as better forcing arrives with the low tracking over the area. 1-2 inches of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible, especially along the coast and the Outer Banks where a few thunderstorms may develop. Rain chances will quickly decrease early Monday morning as the low moves out to sea. Additionally, gusty conditions will develop tonight and last through most of tomorrow, and coastal areas could gust to 25-40 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As the low departs on Monday, high pressure will move in behind it, and we will begin a warming trend that will last through Friday. After near normal conditions Monday, heights will steadily rise through the week with highs reaching the 60s Tuesday, low 70s Wednesday, and mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday, which could be near record in some locations. Along the coast, it will be a different story due to the frigid water temperatures, which will keep temperatures mostly in the 60s this week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR CIGs are quickly moving into ENC from the SW this evening.
This is occurring ahead of an area of low pressure that is moving ENE out of Georgia. This low is forecast to pass over, or just south of, ENC tonight, then deepen as it moves offshore on Monday. North of the low, widespread low CIGs and reduced VIS will impact ENC into Monday morning. Occasional LTG strikes will be possible, especially from KOAJ to KEWN, but confidence is low enough to keep TS out of the TAFs there for now. The primary TSRA risk looks to be focused from KMRH to KHSE and points offshore to the SE. Strong southerly winds aloft ahead of the low should support an increased risk of LLWS impacts over the next several hours. As the low moves through, that risk will shift east of the area, decreasing after 06z tonight. However, as the low rapidly deepens offshore on Monday, there could be a period of northerly LLWS impacts, mainly for runways along the OBX. Gusty north winds will be possible at all runways during this time as well, even away from the OBX.

CIGs should gradually rise during the day Monday, but I kept the TAFs more pessimistic for now, as low CIGs may be slower to clear than what is depicted in blended guidance.

Outlook: Monday night/Tuesday morning, high pressure overhead brings calm winds. If clouds clear in time, the calm winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall will bring fog concerns to inland eastern NC early Tuesday morning. Along OBX, northerly flow between the high and the departing low will allow sub-VFR ceilings to linger through much of the night, potentially lowering in the form of fog.

MARINE
Conditions will deteriorate quickly this afternoon as winds increase rapidly ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with Small Craft Advisories up for the remaining marine areas.

Southerly flow will ramp up quickly late this afternoon ahead of the low, with the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras reaching Gale force by this evening. This area can expect southerly to southwesterly winds at 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt (highest near Gulf Stream) through late tonight when the winds will then veer to the northwest as the low moves offshore after midnight. Northwesterly Gales will develop across the Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras early tomorrow morning behind the departing low with sustained winds at 25-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt. Strong Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop across all remaining marine zones late tonight with the northwesterly surge as the low pulls away from the coast. Seas will peak at 6-11 ft tonight/early Monday.

Outlook: Small craft seas (> 6ft) will persist for most of the coastal waters through at least Wednesday morning due to backswell from the low pressure system, which will deepen rapidly offshore. Thereafter, increasing SW winds, and perhaps some lingering backswell, will keep Small Craft conditions in the forecast through late this week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ136- 137.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150-152.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ154-156.
Gale Warning until 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ158.