Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neuse Forest, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1200 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperatures continue today and tonight

Ridging over the Carolinas continues to bring clear skies and below normal temperatures today. Highs in the low to mid 40s expected this afternoon, with winds light and variable. Tonight surface high pressure will begin to shift offshore, keeping the entire CWA calm to start off the night. This will result in rapid cratering of temperatures throughout ENC, including OBX.
Despite warming low-level thicknesses, temperatures tonight are still expected to bottom out below normal thanks to decent radiational conditions from the clear skies and calm winds.
Late tonight, high level clouds may begin to encroach on the area associated with a weak system that is forecast to travel east along the northern Gulf Coast. Lows tonight will, in part, depend on how quickly the clouds move in. If clouds move in faster than currently forecast, lows tonight would end up warmer than currently forecast. Current expectation is for another chilly night similar to this past night, with lows near 20 inland, low 30s along the coast.



SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
As of 100 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cloud cover increases, but will remain dry with highs near 50

As a system moves over the gulf states, moisture advection at 700mb will result in an increase in mid level clouds Monday.
Lowest levels of the atmosphere will still be dry thanks to sfc high persisting, and any precip that falls will dry up before reaching the surface. Some hi-res guidance wants to show mentionable PoPs along and south of hwy 70, but these models tend to underestimate the effect of the dry layer. For this reason, kept PoPs below 5% for Monday. Despite the increased cloud cover, we will be a bit warmer Monday, with highs near 50 through the CWA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 0300 Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES: - Cold and dry through the period

Midweek...Upper low traveling Eward through Sern CAN picks up a SFC low as they approach the Great Lakes. Once these lows reach our longitude Monday night, we'll get into a better NWerly CAA regime with pulses of stronger winds and CAA associated with waves traveling through the low aloft surging through the jet overhead. Drier airmass being pushed in noted by the Tds in the teens, and potential single digits later in the week, will make the 40s/upper teens-20s split feel CRISP. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night will be in the teens (upper-20s OBX) with AppT chills hovering around Cold Weather Advisory criteria (<15).

Late week into the weekend...Temperatures will moderate late week as weak upper ridging builds and surface high pressure moves along the southeast coast. Returning to southwesterly flow will help temperatures climb from the upper-30s to low-40s on Thursday to mid- to upper-40s on Friday. Friday night and into the weekend, an expansive digging upper trough approaches from the west, increasing WAA, moisture content, cloud coverage, and precip chances.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES:

- VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs

High pressure will slide overhead through the rest of the day, with light winds and clear skies. By this evening, high pressure will begin to shift east, allowing a weak southwest flow to develop. This may lead to a subtle increase in low-level moisture, which may allow an opportunity for reduced VIS in BR.
I've continued to keep the TAFs VFR, but something to be aware of. Otherwise, skies should remain CLR until late tonight when mid-level clouds glance the area as an upper level wave passes by to the south. While potential remains low, with the cold night in store and water temps for inland rivers in the upper 30s, steam fog could result in MIFG for terminals near water.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 0300 Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and predominantly VFR

High confidence in predominantly VFR conditions with a cold and dry airmass in place through much of the workweek. Gusty NWerly winds late Tues- Wed.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...All marine headlines have been dropped with seas below 6 ft. This afternoon, winds are 10-15kt out of the N/NW for coastal waters, and 5-10kt for inland sounds and rivers. Seas are 3-5 ft right now. Through the rest of the day, winds and seas continue falling, with winds becoming light and variable to start the night. Winds from the west become 5-10G10-15kt Monday and seas become 1-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 0300 Sunday...

Marine headlines likely late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Predominantly NWerly flow with winds gradually increasing through the early week, peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when stout upper level jet and reinforcing front strengthens NWerly winds to, at a minimum, SCA criteria for coastal waters and larger sounds, with potential for Gales over Coastal Waters. Marine conditions improve Wed and Thursday, but not by much with winds remaining WNWerly 10-20G25kt. Unsettled pattern unfolds leading to marine conditions starting to deteriorate late week with more headlines likely over the upcoming weekend when a series of fronts move through.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.