Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oriental, NC
December 9, 2023 1:18 AM EST (06:18 UTC)
Sunrise 7:02AM Sunset 4:57PM Moonrise 3:35AM Moonset 2:30PM
AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 1252 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Rest of tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves rough, increasing to very rough after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves rough, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
Rest of tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves rough, increasing to very rough after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves rough, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 1252 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure continues to move offshore through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc next week.
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure continues to move offshore through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc next week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 090300 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure continues to move offshore through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to ENC next week.
NEAR TERM /Overnight/
As of 10 PM Fri...Have dropped min T's near the coast some 5-10 degrees, as temps are in teh 40s all the way to the OBX. Expect the temps to become steady as a thickening shield of cirrus overspreads ENC through the night.
Prev disc...No big changes needed with eve update as fcst on track.
As of 0400 PM Fri...High pressure to our south is keeping winds light coming from the S/SW. Temperatures are currently in the high 50s to low 60s, with mid 50s along the OBX, and should remain that way over the next few hours until we start to cool down. Cirrus deck has gotten thicker and will continue to thicken and lower through the day. Coastal trough will start to develop tonight into early Saturday morning, but any resultant precipitation is expected to remain offshore going into Saturday with persistent southwesterly flow. Thicker cloud cover is likely to develop by daybreak on Saturday, especially along the coast and OBX.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 0200 PM Fri... Upper level ridge remains over the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday, however at the surface ridging pushes further into the Atlantic and a weak coastal trough will bring cloud cover along the coast and SChc- Chc PoPs offshore. With weak southerly flow and WAA continuing, Highs will be above average in the low 70s and upper 60s. Trended towards higher temperature guidance west of hwy 17 due to less cloud cover in addition to the WAA. Winds will continue to be light S/SWerly Saturday, ramping up to begin the long term.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold front to bring heavy rain, strong winds, and possibly a few thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night
2) Turning cold and dry next week
FORECAST DETAILS
The main focus in the long term period continues to be the strong cold front that is forecast to move through the length of the US East Coast Sunday/Sunday night. This front will move through the region as a potent shortwave lifts northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic States. Of note, ensemble guidance have trended a bit stronger with this wave which, at minimum, could support stronger large-scale forcing.
By Saturday night, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to an increasing southerly flow, with an uptick in moisture advection into the coastal Carolinas. With increasing WAA, this may allow a chance of showers to work inland through the night. Moisture transport will markedly increase on Sunday as the above-mentioned potent s/w approaches from the west, and begins to take on more of a negative tilt. Moisture advection will be aided by an anomalously strong SSWerly 50-60kt LLJ straight off the Gulf of Mexico/Western Atlantic. Within this flow, an impressive plume of 1.50"+ PWATs will surge north through the eastern Carolinas. There will be multiple sources of lift, including strong WAA, a diffluent flow aloft, moderate to strong frontal forcing, and a pre-frontal convergent axis. The combination of moderate to strong lift and anomalous moisture continues to point towards a solid 1-2" of rain areawide.
For the most part, guidance has remained consistent with rainfall amounts. However, there continues to be some differences in where the highest amounts will be, and I suspect this is largely driven by where convection factors in (ie. supporting higher rainfall rates).
Where convection occurs, rainfall amounts of 2-3" will be possible.
The convective potential remains a forecast and messaging challenge.
Despite strong warm/moist advection, lapse rates aloft will be weak, and temps/dewpoints may only top out in the 60s. The southerly flow over the cooler near-shore waters may factor in as well. All-in-all, this points towards a high shear/low CAPE scenario, with instability being a significant limiting factor for a greater severe weather potential. That said, because of the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help to mix down some of those impressive LLJ winds. The main thunderstorm hazard expected, then, will be wind gusts of 50+ mph. The greater severe threat should stay offshore.
Lastly, the strong kinematics at play, and a strong pressure gradient along/ahead of the front, will support a period of strong winds Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Probabilistic guidance is giving a 50-70% chance of exceeding 45 mph gusts along the coast, and a Wind Advisory will be needed if these probabilities remain high. Inland, it will be windy as well, but 45 mph probabilities are lower (30-50% chance). Inland, the best chance of seeing 45 mph winds may actually come just behind the front as mixing deepens just prior to the stronger winds aloft shifting away from the area.
Gusty winds will continue into the day Monday, but will gradually subside by late Monday. A dry and colder airmass then moves back in for next week, with a broad area of high pressure overhead.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 7 PM Friday...High clouds are beginning to thicken and lower with moisture advection aloft and will continue to do so into early morning. Some clearing is expected for Saturday, with guidance trending towards having FEW to SCT decks above 15kft. Winds will be light s to swrly through the taf pd.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...The main impact period in the long term will be Sunday-Monday as a cold front moves through. The front will be accompanied by widespread sub-VFR conditions, with periods of IFR, or lower, conditions expected in low CIGs, SHRA, and possible TSRA. Strong south winds will gust as high as 25-35kt Sunday afternoon and Sunday night ahead of the front.
Behind the front, gusty northerly winds will continue into Monday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0400 PM Friday... Winds are currently coming from the S/SW, gusting up to 15kts. These conditions will continue until Saturday morning, when wind gusts lessen to sub 10kts, still coming from the S/SW. As the pressure gradient starts tightening Saturday evening, southerly winds start to approach 10G15kts, and will continue to increase going into the long term. Seas are currently 2-4 ft with periods of 10-13 seconds (immediate waters off of Crystal Coast are calmer) and will remain mostly unchanged through Saturday.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday
FORECAST DETAILS
Boating conditions begin to worsen Saturday night, becoming hazardous Sunday through Monday as a cold front moves through.
Ahead of the front, strong southerly Gales will develop, with a few storm force gusts possible over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Seas will build to 7-14 ft during this time, highest from Cape Hatteras south. Across the cooler waters, winds will be near, or just below, gale force. A Gale Watch has been issued for all coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound Sunday night into Monday morning. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30kt will continue into Monday morning before gradually laying down. Seas will take some time to lay down, but should fall to 4-6 ft by Monday night or Tuesday. Along the front, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected.
With such strong winds aloft, any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing areas of enhanced winds. Over the warmer waters, the showers and thunderstorms will likely be what helps produce occasional storm- force gusts.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ135.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ150.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ152-154-156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure continues to move offshore through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to ENC next week.
NEAR TERM /Overnight/
As of 10 PM Fri...Have dropped min T's near the coast some 5-10 degrees, as temps are in teh 40s all the way to the OBX. Expect the temps to become steady as a thickening shield of cirrus overspreads ENC through the night.
Prev disc...No big changes needed with eve update as fcst on track.
As of 0400 PM Fri...High pressure to our south is keeping winds light coming from the S/SW. Temperatures are currently in the high 50s to low 60s, with mid 50s along the OBX, and should remain that way over the next few hours until we start to cool down. Cirrus deck has gotten thicker and will continue to thicken and lower through the day. Coastal trough will start to develop tonight into early Saturday morning, but any resultant precipitation is expected to remain offshore going into Saturday with persistent southwesterly flow. Thicker cloud cover is likely to develop by daybreak on Saturday, especially along the coast and OBX.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 0200 PM Fri... Upper level ridge remains over the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday, however at the surface ridging pushes further into the Atlantic and a weak coastal trough will bring cloud cover along the coast and SChc- Chc PoPs offshore. With weak southerly flow and WAA continuing, Highs will be above average in the low 70s and upper 60s. Trended towards higher temperature guidance west of hwy 17 due to less cloud cover in addition to the WAA. Winds will continue to be light S/SWerly Saturday, ramping up to begin the long term.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold front to bring heavy rain, strong winds, and possibly a few thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night
2) Turning cold and dry next week
FORECAST DETAILS
The main focus in the long term period continues to be the strong cold front that is forecast to move through the length of the US East Coast Sunday/Sunday night. This front will move through the region as a potent shortwave lifts northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic States. Of note, ensemble guidance have trended a bit stronger with this wave which, at minimum, could support stronger large-scale forcing.
By Saturday night, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to an increasing southerly flow, with an uptick in moisture advection into the coastal Carolinas. With increasing WAA, this may allow a chance of showers to work inland through the night. Moisture transport will markedly increase on Sunday as the above-mentioned potent s/w approaches from the west, and begins to take on more of a negative tilt. Moisture advection will be aided by an anomalously strong SSWerly 50-60kt LLJ straight off the Gulf of Mexico/Western Atlantic. Within this flow, an impressive plume of 1.50"+ PWATs will surge north through the eastern Carolinas. There will be multiple sources of lift, including strong WAA, a diffluent flow aloft, moderate to strong frontal forcing, and a pre-frontal convergent axis. The combination of moderate to strong lift and anomalous moisture continues to point towards a solid 1-2" of rain areawide.
For the most part, guidance has remained consistent with rainfall amounts. However, there continues to be some differences in where the highest amounts will be, and I suspect this is largely driven by where convection factors in (ie. supporting higher rainfall rates).
Where convection occurs, rainfall amounts of 2-3" will be possible.
The convective potential remains a forecast and messaging challenge.
Despite strong warm/moist advection, lapse rates aloft will be weak, and temps/dewpoints may only top out in the 60s. The southerly flow over the cooler near-shore waters may factor in as well. All-in-all, this points towards a high shear/low CAPE scenario, with instability being a significant limiting factor for a greater severe weather potential. That said, because of the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help to mix down some of those impressive LLJ winds. The main thunderstorm hazard expected, then, will be wind gusts of 50+ mph. The greater severe threat should stay offshore.
Lastly, the strong kinematics at play, and a strong pressure gradient along/ahead of the front, will support a period of strong winds Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Probabilistic guidance is giving a 50-70% chance of exceeding 45 mph gusts along the coast, and a Wind Advisory will be needed if these probabilities remain high. Inland, it will be windy as well, but 45 mph probabilities are lower (30-50% chance). Inland, the best chance of seeing 45 mph winds may actually come just behind the front as mixing deepens just prior to the stronger winds aloft shifting away from the area.
Gusty winds will continue into the day Monday, but will gradually subside by late Monday. A dry and colder airmass then moves back in for next week, with a broad area of high pressure overhead.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 7 PM Friday...High clouds are beginning to thicken and lower with moisture advection aloft and will continue to do so into early morning. Some clearing is expected for Saturday, with guidance trending towards having FEW to SCT decks above 15kft. Winds will be light s to swrly through the taf pd.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...The main impact period in the long term will be Sunday-Monday as a cold front moves through. The front will be accompanied by widespread sub-VFR conditions, with periods of IFR, or lower, conditions expected in low CIGs, SHRA, and possible TSRA. Strong south winds will gust as high as 25-35kt Sunday afternoon and Sunday night ahead of the front.
Behind the front, gusty northerly winds will continue into Monday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0400 PM Friday... Winds are currently coming from the S/SW, gusting up to 15kts. These conditions will continue until Saturday morning, when wind gusts lessen to sub 10kts, still coming from the S/SW. As the pressure gradient starts tightening Saturday evening, southerly winds start to approach 10G15kts, and will continue to increase going into the long term. Seas are currently 2-4 ft with periods of 10-13 seconds (immediate waters off of Crystal Coast are calmer) and will remain mostly unchanged through Saturday.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday
FORECAST DETAILS
Boating conditions begin to worsen Saturday night, becoming hazardous Sunday through Monday as a cold front moves through.
Ahead of the front, strong southerly Gales will develop, with a few storm force gusts possible over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Seas will build to 7-14 ft during this time, highest from Cape Hatteras south. Across the cooler waters, winds will be near, or just below, gale force. A Gale Watch has been issued for all coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound Sunday night into Monday morning. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30kt will continue into Monday morning before gradually laying down. Seas will take some time to lay down, but should fall to 4-6 ft by Monday night or Tuesday. Along the front, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected.
With such strong winds aloft, any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing areas of enhanced winds. Over the warmer waters, the showers and thunderstorms will likely be what helps produce occasional storm- force gusts.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ135.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ150.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ152-154-156-158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 22 mi | 61 min | 0G | 55°F | 30.22 | |||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 30 mi | 79 min | WSW 5.1G | 60°F | 30.27 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC | 13 sm | 22 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 45°F | 43°F | 93% | 30.24 | |
| KEWN COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL,NC | 18 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 43°F | 87% | 30.23 | |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 21 sm | 20 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 50°F | 94% | 30.23 |
Wind History from NBT
(wind in knots)Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:33 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 AM EST 2.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 11:31 AM EST 0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:55 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 05:04 PM EST 1.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:26 PM EST 0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:33 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 AM EST 2.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 11:31 AM EST 0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:55 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 05:04 PM EST 1.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:26 PM EST 0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
North River Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:04 AM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:33 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 05:51 AM EST 1.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 12:53 PM EST 0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:55 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 06:03 PM EST 1.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:04 AM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:33 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 05:51 AM EST 1.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 12:53 PM EST 0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:55 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 06:03 PM EST 1.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Morehead City, NC,
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