Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:24PM Saturday July 11, 2020 12:15 AM EDT (04:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 11:07AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 1044 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 110255 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1055 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front trailing Tropical Storm Fay will approach the region before dissipating this weekend. Bermuda high pressure will then build into the area early next week, with an inland lee trough over the piedmont.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 1045 PM Fri . Convective line is holding fairly strong as it is pushing through the Triangle. Expect the storms to weaken as it interacts with the sea breeze, which is near I-95 late this evening, but do expect better coverage of showers and thunderstorms overnight than previously thought, so increased PoPs across the area overnight. Storms should remain sub-severe across ENC.

Broad upper troughing will continue over the area tonight, with winds continuing out of the SW. An embedded shortwave and frontal boundary are pushing east of the Appalachians this evening with assoc line of convection moving into the western piedmont. Dry conditions with mainly clear skies over ENC this evening with the sea breeze pushing inland across the coastal plain, however will be watching the storms to the west as they continue to push eastward overnight. The storms will be weakening as they push eastward with the front becoming diffuse, however some guidance does show isolated showers or thunderstorms making it into the coastal plain late tonight, so will keep slight chance PoPs in the fcst. Lows tonight will be warm and muggy thanks to an unrelenting southerly breeze, with temps only reaching the mid to upper 70s inland, and around 80 along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. As of 315 PM Fri . A weak front will enter the area tomorrow before stalling out/dissipating over the region, as a large but broad upper level trough moves over the Eastern US. After a warm start temps will quickly jump into the upper 80s by mid morning, leading to instability developing, and allowing for scattered showers to initiate along the sea breeze early. By late morning/early afternoon convection will strengthen along the sea breeze, aided by subtle shortwave energy passing overhead, and coverage should become fairly widespread through at least mid afternoon, before precip spreads further inland and begins to dissipate. With high CAPE values around 2500-3000 J/kg, some strong updrafts are possible, however limited wind shear <15 kts will keep storms mostly tame. With the warm start and slightly higher low level heights, afternoon high temps could reach the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s to around 90 along the coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 3 AM Fri . Saturday Night and Sunday . A broad upper trough will remain over the area this period, and convergence along the coast will lead to some scattered showers or thunderstorms persisting through Saturday night into Sunday morning along the coast. Then during the day Sunday, substantial convective activity well offshore will extend to the coast, with showers/thunderstorms possible, but further inland only widely scattered convection is expected. Hot temps likely with readings reaching the mid 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast.

Monday and Tuesday . We remain under the influence of a broad trof, with a deep southwest flow keeping our area hot or seasonable for mid July. While the models don't show discrete features yet, the daily instability and trof in the east is enough to continue a 30-40% chance of storms each day. While not a washout, highest chances likely will coincide will peak heating during the afternoon.

Wednesday/Thursday . A sprawling 594 Em upper level high will spread over the Carolinas, with 850 Mb temps remaining around 20/21C supporting highs well into the 90s inland. A typical summertime pattern with daily chances of thunderstorms, most likely driven by the daily sea breeze.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Saturday/ . As of 1045 PM Sat . Pred VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. A period of sub-VFR likely overnight as a line of showers and thunderstorms push into the area, though they will be weakening as they move into ENC routes. Otherwise, light-moderate SW winds should preclude fog development tonight and guidance is not developing stratus. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to redevelop Saturday with daytime heating, developing on the sea breeze and lingering frontal boundary across the area, which will bring period of sub-VFR conditions.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/ . As of 130 PM Fri . Mainly VFR through the period. Potential for brief MVFR restrictions especially during the afternoon in periods of showers or thunderstorms. Early morning fog also possible in the footprint of afternoon/evening rainfall.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Tomorrow/ . As of 830 PM Fri . S to SW winds have increased to 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this evening as gradients tighten ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, while seas continue around 3-4 ft. Tomorrow, winds will be SSW around 10 kts in the morning, and then increase to 10-20 kts in the afternoon and evening. Seas are expected to remain mostly 2-4 ft, and increase to 3-5 ft late tomorrow.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/ . As of 345 PM Fri . Winds and seas close to Small Craft thresholds are possible Saturday night, but latest trends indicate sustained winds remaining below 20 kts, and seas should stay 4-5 ft.

Large swell will be the main boating concern during the rest of long term period, especially Sunday through Tuesday. Southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 kts Sunday and Monday, with stronger winds expected well offshore. In response to the long fetch of S/SW winds, swell will build to 6-8 ft as early as Sunday evening, persisting into Tuesday. As winds diminish a bit late Tuesday to 10 to 20 kts, seas subside to 3 to 5 feet.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SK/SGK SHORT TERM . SGK LONG TERM . EH/SGK AVIATION . EH/SK/CEB MARINE . EH/SGK/SK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi46 min SSW 8 G 11 82°F 85°F1011.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi136 min SSW 11 G 13 81°F 1011.9 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC13 mi80 minS 410.00 miFair81°F75°F85%1011.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi22 minSW 510.00 miFair80°F73°F82%1011.2 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi22 minSSW 510.00 miFair76°F73°F94%1011.5 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi78 minSSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F75°F82%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7NW4NW6NW3NW5NW3NW4N6NW6NW5N3NW54W3SE7S10S8S10S6S5SW6S6SW5
1 day agoE8NE10NE7NE7NE8NE8NE6--NE6N11N14NE13--NE13NE11
G19
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2 days agoNE3E3E3SE5SE7E4SE6--E4NE6NE7E8E5SE5--SE9E9E10E7E8E7NE7NE6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:42 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:17 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.921.81.51.10.70.40.30.30.611.41.821.91.71.410.70.50.40.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:42 AM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:39 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:16 PM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.41.61.71.61.310.70.40.20.20.40.81.21.51.71.71.51.20.90.60.40.30.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.