Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oriental, NC
April 19, 2024 4:54 PM EDT (20:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:28 AM Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 2:57 PM Moonset 3:34 AM |
AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 349 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of tstms. Rain.
Sun night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Rain with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tue - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop.
Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 349 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A warm front will track north across the waters this evening. A cold front then tracks south across the region and stalls just offshore on Saturday bringing our next threat for some precip during the afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure will lift ne along the front Sunday into Monday bringing unsettled weather across the region once again. High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 191930 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure will track northeastward across central North Carolina bringing a warm front north with it this evening resulting in a threat for precip across ENC. This lows associated cold front then tracks south across the region and stalls just offshore on Saturday bringing our next threat for some precip during the afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure will lift NE along the front Sunday into Monday bringing unsettled weather across the region once again. High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday.
High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 PM Fri... In the very near term not much has changed as continued low level cloud cover has kept things cool and damp along the NOBX with temps barely getting into the mid 50s, while temps reached the upper 70s to near 80 across the Coastal Plain in areas where low cloud cover had dissipated this morning resulting in a fairly large temperature gradient across ENC this afternoon.
Otherwise we begin to look at the most active period of the near term. Latest surface analysis shows a developing low pressure system near the Triad region this afternoon with its associated warm front nearing the SC/NC border. This low and frontal boundary will continue to lift NE'wards through tonight allowing the ongoing east to southeasterly winds this afternoon to slowly veer to a SW'rly direction tonight.
Latest mesoanalysis shows building instability across our southwestern zones where a combination of around 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear is noted while lower instability and shear are noted the farther north and east you get as a marine layer has allowed the airmass to stay stable north of about Hwy 264 for now. In addition to this, onshore flow has resulted in a gradual moistening of of the atmospheric column this afternoon and with the incoming front providing ample lift some isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity has developed to the south and west of the area with some of this activity becoming severe in nature. General trends have been for this activity to push north and east through the remainder of the afternoon impacting our SW'rn counties within the next 1-3 hours and then continuing onwards before gradually dissipating this evening after sunset. While we have slightly more instability across our SW'rn zones, it is much lower across ENC than across areas to the south and west given this mornings cloud cover thus limiting the severe threat. While it is not zero, general thinking is if any storm can survive its trek into our area, strong wind gusts (40-50 mph), small hail, and frequent lightning would be the primary concern within the strongest storms with this threat being isolated at best. After sunset any left over activity will quickly weaken and continue off to the north and east eventually nearing the coast by daybreak on Saturday with any thunder threat ending by about 9-10PM.
More mild temperatures are likely tonight as the frontal boundary continues to lift northward, with lows in the low 60s inland and mid 50s across NOBX.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM Fri... SW'rly flow will continue to persist across the region Sat morning before the next cold front sweeps southwards across ENC Sat afternoon shifting the winds behind this front to a NE'rly direction. Any leftover shower activity from the previous evenings activity will be quickly pushing out to sea Sat morning with perhaps the biggest change to the forecast for Sat being a reduction in PoP's Sat afternoon. Latest thinking is that there will no longer be much forcing with the incoming front which should keep the Coastal Plain dry while maybe a few showers develop along the OBX and Crystal Coast Sat afternoon as the front makes its way through. Though capped PoP's at SChc along the coast and OBX given the downward trend in precip potential.
Otherwise temps get into the low to mid 70s inland and into the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX on Sat.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern with several frontal passages and an area of low pressure lifting off the coast early next week.
Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday. There remains some timing differences with the low but expect widespread rain to develop across the area Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts expected around a half to one inch with highest amounts occuring along the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep cooler temps across the area with highs expected in the low to mid 60s.
Most of the rain will push offshore Sunday night but an upper trough will push across the Southeast which may trigger additional showers across the area on Monday, however guidance has been trending farther south and weaker with the trough which may keep us on the drier side. Below normal temps continue on Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture appears to be limited with this system. High pressure builds back into the area on Thursday with dry conditions prevailing.
A warming trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday.
Temps cool back to the low to mid 70s Thursday.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 120 PM Fri...IFR ceilings have just about mixed out of everywhere across ENC outside of the NOBX where low level moisture remains trapped underneath a frontal inversion and low stratus around 600-800 ft persist. This should eventually mix out within the next few hours out ahead of incoming shower and thunderstorm activity, though there is a low end chance IFR ceilings stick around all day here. Elsewhere a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevails this afternoon and this is forecast to continue over the next few hours out ahead of incoming shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. The trend has been downward on the overall severe threat across our terminals this afternoon but latest guidance still suggests shower and thunderstorm activity begin to intrude from the west starting around the 20Z-02Z PM timeframe with locally lower vis and ceilings within any thunderstorm or shower that does develop.
Within thunderstorms isolated wind gusts up around 30-40 kts can't be ruled out. Otherwise as a front approaches any leftover VFR conditions will deteriorate this evening starting from west to east with MVFR ceilings forecast across the terminals between 0-4Z tonight and then IFR ceilings after about 04Z.
Ceilings then begin to improve late Sat morning as the area becomes wedged between the front that moves through tonight and a second front coming in from the north late Sat. Light winds persist across the region through the period.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 530 AM Friday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers as mid level shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
Improving conditions are expected on Monday with pred VFR expected Tuesday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Fri... Weak warm front will lift N'wards across our waters this evening allowing E'rly winds to veer to a SE and eventually a SW'rly direction tonight while winds remain around 5-15 kts. A cold front then sweeps S'wards across the area Sat afternoon once again shifting winds behind the front to a N'rly direction at 10-20 kts with only a few gusts mainly along the Gulf Stream waters to about 25 kts Sat afternoon. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through the period precluding any issuance of SCA's across our waters through the period
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The front will stall off the coast Saturday night with winds diminishing to around 15 kt or less but low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night into Monday bringing a period NE winds around 15-25 kt, strongest Sunday night into Monday morning.
High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic on Tuesday with NE winds around 10-20 kt continuing across the waters. Seas expected to be around 3-5 ft Saturday into Sunday morning, then will build to 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters and 6-9 ft across the central waters Sunday night and Monday. Seas will gradually subside Monday night and Tuesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure will track northeastward across central North Carolina bringing a warm front north with it this evening resulting in a threat for precip across ENC. This lows associated cold front then tracks south across the region and stalls just offshore on Saturday bringing our next threat for some precip during the afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure will lift NE along the front Sunday into Monday bringing unsettled weather across the region once again. High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday.
High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 PM Fri... In the very near term not much has changed as continued low level cloud cover has kept things cool and damp along the NOBX with temps barely getting into the mid 50s, while temps reached the upper 70s to near 80 across the Coastal Plain in areas where low cloud cover had dissipated this morning resulting in a fairly large temperature gradient across ENC this afternoon.
Otherwise we begin to look at the most active period of the near term. Latest surface analysis shows a developing low pressure system near the Triad region this afternoon with its associated warm front nearing the SC/NC border. This low and frontal boundary will continue to lift NE'wards through tonight allowing the ongoing east to southeasterly winds this afternoon to slowly veer to a SW'rly direction tonight.
Latest mesoanalysis shows building instability across our southwestern zones where a combination of around 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear is noted while lower instability and shear are noted the farther north and east you get as a marine layer has allowed the airmass to stay stable north of about Hwy 264 for now. In addition to this, onshore flow has resulted in a gradual moistening of of the atmospheric column this afternoon and with the incoming front providing ample lift some isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity has developed to the south and west of the area with some of this activity becoming severe in nature. General trends have been for this activity to push north and east through the remainder of the afternoon impacting our SW'rn counties within the next 1-3 hours and then continuing onwards before gradually dissipating this evening after sunset. While we have slightly more instability across our SW'rn zones, it is much lower across ENC than across areas to the south and west given this mornings cloud cover thus limiting the severe threat. While it is not zero, general thinking is if any storm can survive its trek into our area, strong wind gusts (40-50 mph), small hail, and frequent lightning would be the primary concern within the strongest storms with this threat being isolated at best. After sunset any left over activity will quickly weaken and continue off to the north and east eventually nearing the coast by daybreak on Saturday with any thunder threat ending by about 9-10PM.
More mild temperatures are likely tonight as the frontal boundary continues to lift northward, with lows in the low 60s inland and mid 50s across NOBX.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM Fri... SW'rly flow will continue to persist across the region Sat morning before the next cold front sweeps southwards across ENC Sat afternoon shifting the winds behind this front to a NE'rly direction. Any leftover shower activity from the previous evenings activity will be quickly pushing out to sea Sat morning with perhaps the biggest change to the forecast for Sat being a reduction in PoP's Sat afternoon. Latest thinking is that there will no longer be much forcing with the incoming front which should keep the Coastal Plain dry while maybe a few showers develop along the OBX and Crystal Coast Sat afternoon as the front makes its way through. Though capped PoP's at SChc along the coast and OBX given the downward trend in precip potential.
Otherwise temps get into the low to mid 70s inland and into the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX on Sat.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern with several frontal passages and an area of low pressure lifting off the coast early next week.
Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday. There remains some timing differences with the low but expect widespread rain to develop across the area Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts expected around a half to one inch with highest amounts occuring along the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep cooler temps across the area with highs expected in the low to mid 60s.
Most of the rain will push offshore Sunday night but an upper trough will push across the Southeast which may trigger additional showers across the area on Monday, however guidance has been trending farther south and weaker with the trough which may keep us on the drier side. Below normal temps continue on Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture appears to be limited with this system. High pressure builds back into the area on Thursday with dry conditions prevailing.
A warming trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday.
Temps cool back to the low to mid 70s Thursday.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 120 PM Fri...IFR ceilings have just about mixed out of everywhere across ENC outside of the NOBX where low level moisture remains trapped underneath a frontal inversion and low stratus around 600-800 ft persist. This should eventually mix out within the next few hours out ahead of incoming shower and thunderstorm activity, though there is a low end chance IFR ceilings stick around all day here. Elsewhere a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevails this afternoon and this is forecast to continue over the next few hours out ahead of incoming shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. The trend has been downward on the overall severe threat across our terminals this afternoon but latest guidance still suggests shower and thunderstorm activity begin to intrude from the west starting around the 20Z-02Z PM timeframe with locally lower vis and ceilings within any thunderstorm or shower that does develop.
Within thunderstorms isolated wind gusts up around 30-40 kts can't be ruled out. Otherwise as a front approaches any leftover VFR conditions will deteriorate this evening starting from west to east with MVFR ceilings forecast across the terminals between 0-4Z tonight and then IFR ceilings after about 04Z.
Ceilings then begin to improve late Sat morning as the area becomes wedged between the front that moves through tonight and a second front coming in from the north late Sat. Light winds persist across the region through the period.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 530 AM Friday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers as mid level shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
Improving conditions are expected on Monday with pred VFR expected Tuesday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Fri... Weak warm front will lift N'wards across our waters this evening allowing E'rly winds to veer to a SE and eventually a SW'rly direction tonight while winds remain around 5-15 kts. A cold front then sweeps S'wards across the area Sat afternoon once again shifting winds behind the front to a N'rly direction at 10-20 kts with only a few gusts mainly along the Gulf Stream waters to about 25 kts Sat afternoon. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through the period precluding any issuance of SCA's across our waters through the period
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The front will stall off the coast Saturday night with winds diminishing to around 15 kt or less but low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night into Monday bringing a period NE winds around 15-25 kt, strongest Sunday night into Monday morning.
High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic on Tuesday with NE winds around 10-20 kt continuing across the waters. Seas expected to be around 3-5 ft Saturday into Sunday morning, then will build to 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters and 6-9 ft across the central waters Sunday night and Monday. Seas will gradually subside Monday night and Tuesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 22 mi | 54 min | ESE 11G | 66°F | 69°F | 29.99 | ||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 30 mi | 54 min | ENE 15G | 62°F | 30.03 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC | 13 sm | 58 min | ENE 10 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 61°F | 69% | 30.00 | |
| KEWN COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL,NC | 18 sm | 60 min | ESE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 61°F | 65% | 30.00 | |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 21 sm | 56 min | E 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 59°F | 65% | 30.00 |
Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:44 AM EDT 1.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:09 PM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:57 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT 2.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:44 AM EDT 1.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:09 PM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:57 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT 2.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
North River Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:06 AM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM EDT 1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:31 PM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT 1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:06 AM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM EDT 1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:31 PM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT 1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Morehead City, NC,
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