Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 3:12 AM EDT (07:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 1250 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Isolated showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 210459
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1259 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will extend west into eastern north
carolina through mid week as a trough lingers well inland. A
cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and into
the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1255 am Wednesday... Widespread high clouds continue over
much of the region early this morning as high pressure continues
offshore with a deep SW flow over the mid-atlantic. This
persistent cloud cover should preclude much in the way of fog
overnight. Area of precipitation associated with mid-level low
is shrinking west of the raleigh area and should remain well
west of our CWA overnight, so will keep the forecast dry.

Overnight lows mainly in the mid 70s.

Short term Thursday through 6 am Thursday
As of 3 pm tue... A weak upper low over the sc upstate this
afternoon will slide across the nc piedmont Wednesday as it is
absorbed into a shortwave trough passing across the great lakes
and northeast. The attendant surface low will remain very weak
as it passes inland through the day before deepening as it moves
into the mid-atlantic late in the afternoon. Thunderstorm
coverage is expected to be greatest for inland areas in closer
proximity to the enhanced lift inland, though increased cloud
cover with the low will limit thermodynamic instability to some
extent. Closer to the coast, isolated to scattered convection is
to tap with the sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions.

Highs will be a couple of degrees above normal, with low level
thickness values favoring highs near 90 away from the beaches
under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Long term Thursday through Wednesday
As of 240 am tues... High pressure will extend over the area
through Thursday with only scattered thunderstorms expected.

A cold front will approach the area Friday, and then slowly
cross through the forecast area over the weekend, leading to
another period of unsettled weather.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected again Thursday with a weak lee
trough forming over central nc, and continued possible
convective initiation along the sea breeze each day. Also
expecting some nocturnal offshore convection to blossom and move
over coastal areas in the overnight hours both Wednesday and
Thursday nights. High temps will be slightly above average
through this period, with readings in the low 90s inland and the
mid to upper 80s along the coast. Warm and humid nights will
continue.

Friday through Monday... Major model differences remain from
Friday through early next week as a cold front moves south into
the area. The latest GFS still shows a quick moving front
dropping into nc on Friday and then sinking south of the area
by Friday night... And into the deep south by the end of the
weekend. In this solution Friday and the first half of Saturday
would be very wet, with drier and much cooler air moving into
the region. Meanwhile the latest ECMWF shows a slower moving
front still in southern va Friday night, which finally crosses
into the area by Sunday... And then stalls just south of the
forecast area, which would lead to an extended period of
unsettled weather Saturday through at least Monday.

Will continue to hedge towards a middle solution, but with much
of the upper level trough remaining north of the area and with
the current time of year in mind, would tend to favor a solution
closer to the ECMWF with a slow moving front eventually stalling
around or just south of the area. So, will keep high chance pops
in the forecast from Friday into early next week. Temperatures
will likely be slightly below normal through this period with
highs mostly in the low to mid 80s, and low temps seasonably
cool in the 60s and low 70s.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 06z Thursday ...

as of 1255 am Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected through
this TAF cycle as high clouds should preclude much in the way of
fog formation overnight. Afternoon diurnally-driven showers
and thunderstorms will again be possible on Wednesday afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 300 am tue... MostlyVFR conditions expected through
Friday morning, with scattered convection expected during the
afternoons and evenings. Then Friday afternoon through much of
the weekend, low visibilities and ceilings are possible as a
cold front moves into the area and rain chances increase. Patchy
fog also possible in the early mornings with high dewpoints and
rather light winds.

Marine
Short term tonight and Wednesday ...

as of 1255 am Wednesday... Winds continue SW at 5-15 knots with a
few higher gusts, especially over the pamlico sound early this
morning. Seas are in the 1-3 foot range with some longer period
swells over the northern coastal waters.

Bermuda high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature
through Wednesday, keeping southwest winds in place. Wednesday,
low pressure developing over the mid-atlantic later in the day
will tighten the gradient locally in the afternoon, with
moderate winds becoming breezy through the day. The gradient
will be tight enough that occasional to frequent gusts to 25 kt
are possible mainly for the sounds and coastal waters north of
cape lookout by late afternoon, and a small craft advisory may
be needed. Seas will be increasing to 3 to 5 ft as increasing
winds develop more locally generated wind swell by late
Wednesday afternoon.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 300 am tue... Winds will be SW 15-20 kts Wednesday night
through Friday morning, with gusts up to around 25 kts along the
coastal waters and pamlico sound. Winds will weaken and turn to
the west, and eventually north, as a cold front crosses the
region on Saturday.

Seas will be 2-4 ft through Wednesday night, and then increase
to 3-5 ft early Thursday morning through Friday afternoon, with
some 6 foot seas possible along the outer coastal waters. Seas
then continue to subside to 2-4 on Saturday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Cb
long term... Sgk
aviation... Dag ctc sgk
marine... Dag ctc sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi72 min SW 5.1 G 8 82°F 85°F1020.6 hPa (+0.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi72 min SW 8.9 G 12 82°F 1019.7 hPa (+0.0)76°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC13 mi16 minSSW 410.00 miFair78°F75°F93%1019.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi18 minSSW 310.00 miFair78°F73°F87%1019.1 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi18 minS 310.00 miFair77°F75°F96%1019.3 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi74 minSW 910.00 miFair82°F77°F85%1019.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW6SW5W7W9W7W5SW5SW85SW8S10S11S9S10SW8S7SW8SW6SW5SW4CalmCalmSW3
1 day agoSW5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW6--W4S3SW6S10S9S11SW10S9S7W5SW6CalmSW4CalmSW3SW5SW4
2 days agoCalmSW7W4SE6S3W7NW7W9NW5W6SW3SW5Calm3SE5S7S6SW6SW6SW5SW4SW6SW5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:49 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:16 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.121.71.30.90.60.40.50.81.21.72.12.32.221.61.30.90.70.60.711.4

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:48 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:15 PM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.71.81.71.51.10.80.50.40.30.60.91.41.81.91.91.71.41.10.80.60.50.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.