Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oriental, NC

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 1015 PM Tuesday...

Latest surface analysis shows a slow-moving cold front stretched from the DelMarVa region southwest into the TN Valley.
Ahead of this front, there is a weakening convergence axis that appears to be a mix of convective outflow from earlier today and the weakening seabreeze pushing inland. Regional radar shows widely scattered convection continues to fester along the convergence axis at this time.

Recent short term guidance has really pulled back on the risk of convection in the near-term (ie. through 06z/2am). After 06z, guidance insists on the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along the HWY 264 corridor through northern sections of ENC. It's unclear what the guidance is keying in on, but there appears to be a remnant MCV (from earlier convection)
moving east through central NC, and this may be the culprit (in tandem with the southward- sagging cold front). The previous forecast already showed this potential, so significant changes were not needed. Despite modest shear in place overnight, the airmass doesn't appear supportive of severe weather overnight due to a stable boundary layer and weaker instability.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 3 PM Tue...Aforementioned cold front will have moved through most of ENC, and will be sweeping through near the Crystal Coast and slowing in the morning. Ocnl showers will dot the region throughout the day, and thinking additional development of some storms will form across the srn coast and swrn zones in closer vcty of the cold front in tandem with seabreeze. Expecting storms to be sub severe as lapse rates not too impressive and shear marginal. High temps will be tempered down a bit in the 70s due to plentiful cloud cover expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

Thursday through Sunday...There will be enough residual moisture and instability behind the front to keep a chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area Thu and Fri. Yet another cold front is forecast to move through the area late Sat resulting in the threat for more widespread showers and storms. Highs Wed-Fri will be around 80, warming into the 80s Sat. Drier air and cooler temps move in behind the front Sun with just a very low risk for a shower and highs in the 70s.

Early next week...Slightly cooler and drier air moves in as high pressure builds over the are from the north early next week. Highs Mon will continue in the 70s.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00z Thursday/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA risk gradually shifts south tonight into Wednesday afternoon - IFR/MVFR CIG risk later tonight through Wednesday AM

A slow-moving cold front will push south through eastern NC over the next 24 hours, accompanied by a risk of TSRA and sub VFR CIGs /VIS. Over the next few hours, the greatest TSRA risk looks to be focused in the general vicinity of KPGV, and this is where I have hit the TAFs the hardest. Elsewhere, a stabilizing airmass and questionable lift makes the TSRA risk less certain.
Because of this, I've opted to keep TSRA out of the remaining TAFs through the rest of the night. It should be noted, though, that some short term guidance insist on a TSRA risk continuing through the night. Should this be the case, the TAFs will be amended as needed. It appears that a renewed TSRA risk will develop by early to mid morning Wednesday as the airmass destabilizes along and ahead of the advancing front. This may especially be the case from KOAJ to KEWN, and I've added a PROB30 group at both terminals to reflect this potential.

CIGs are VFR across the board early this evening, but model consensus indicates a high probability (>60% chance) of a mix of IFR/MVFR CIGs later tonight into Wednesday morning. This occurs as the cold front moves into the area with a cooler, and more moist, northeasterly flow, which tends to favor low CIGs .

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists for the remainder of the week

A wavy frontal boundary will meander over the region through much of the work week. In vicinity of this front, there will be a risk of SHRA, TSRA, and brief sub VFR conditions at times. The greatest impact to aviation will be Wednesday into Thu and Sat.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

A modest thermal gradient continues to support south to southwest winds of 15-25kt at this time, which the previous forecast handled really well. The one exception was the Albemarle Sound/Alligator River area, where winds have been stronger than forecast. I updated the forecast to reflect the stronger winds there. Otherwise, no changes were needed. Thus far, thunderstorms have remained inland of all ENC waters.
However, over the next few hours, there will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the Albemarle Sound/Alligator River vicinity.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SWerly flow continues with speeds of 10-20 kt. These winds will cont through the evening. Afternoon heating gradient will kick up the winds in the sounds to near SCA levels but not long enough duration to warrant a SCA headline. There is a chc for showers and a few storms overnight and into the day Wed, esp for the Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds as well as the northern OBX as a cold front sinks in.
Winds on Wed will be ne behind the front, but remain below SCA levels.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Veering winds, and increased chances for showers and thunderstorms

A cold front will push south through the waters Wed with winds becoming NE around 15 kt and continuing Thu. Winds are forecast to become SE around 10 kt Fri and S to SW 10-15 kt Sat ahead of the next cold front. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft through the period with some 5 footers possible along the outer waters. The fronts will also result in an increase in the risk of thunderstorms, especially Wednesday and again Sat.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.