Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:02PM Monday November 18, 2019 12:57 AM EST (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 12:13PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 952 Pm Est Sun Nov 17 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 am est Monday...
Overnight..N winds 25 to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 9 to 14 ft, subsiding to 9 to 12 ft. Dominant period 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough late. A slight chance of rain late this evening and early morning.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..N winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to choppy.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180304
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1004 pm est Sun nov 17 2019

Synopsis
Strong low pressure south of CAPE hatteras will slowly lift
northeast and further offshore through Monday. A mainly dry
cold front will push through Tuesday with high pressure building
into the area Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will
push through late in the week.

Near term tonight
As of 1000 pm sun... Low pressure center continues to push off to
the northeast as shortwave trough continues to traverse the
southeastern u.S. 00z mhx sounding shows a strong low level
inversion at about 900 mb which will keep low level moisture and
low clouds trapped over the entire area for the evening. Some
lingering light rain drizzle remains possible for a few more
hours over obx. Increased cloud cover forecast overnight and
adjusted t TD trends, otherwise no major changes to the
forecast.

Prev disc... Low pressure currently about 275 mi S of cape
hatteras is slowly drifting to the east through the rest of the
afternoon and then lift northeast and accelerate tonight as a
robust upper level trough approaches from the west. Expect winds
to very slowly diminish through the evening, the ramp down a
bit faster late tonight through Monday as the low moves away
from the area. The wind advisory for the obx looks on track to
expire early this evening. Abundant moisture trapped below a
strong low level inversion will keep cloudy skies through the
period. Rain mainly confined to coastal section this afternoon
will slowly pull offshore through the evening. Lows expected
around 40 across the coastal plain to low mid 50s obx.

Short term Monday
As of 215 pm Sunday... Low pressure continues to lift northeast
of the area Monday with the upper level trough axis pushing
across the area, which may help trigger a period of light rain
across the region. A strong low level inversion will persist
with plenty of moisture trapped in the boundary layer and expect
mainly cloudy skies to prevail. Temps will remain well below
average with highs generally in the low to mid 50s.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Added small pop mainly closer to coast
tue night as short wave crosses. Otherwise not much change with
unsettled weather developing late in the week into the weekend.

Prev disc... Strong high pressure will build over the region in
the wake of the low Tuesday through Thursday. With generally
clear skies, temperatures will be fairly close to climatology,
with highs in the low mid 60s and lows in the low mid 40s.

While differences exist in the details and placement of surface
features, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a return of unsettled
weather Friday into next weekend. A frontal boundary moves into
the region during the day Friday with increased chances of rain.

The ECMWF develops a strong low that moves inland across the
tennessee valley, while the GFS shows more of a miller type-b
setup with a strong low forming off the carolina coast. Both
models are fairly moist and would indicate high rain chances.

Given the uncertainty this far out in the forecast, will carry
just low chance pops for now, but if current trends continue,
pops will likely go up.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 645 pm sun... Low pressure offshore will continue to slowly
drift away from the area through the period, but plenty of
moisture is expected to remain socked below a strong low-level
inversion keeping sub-vfr conditions through tomorrow night.

MVFR CIGS this evening should lower to ifr overnight as winds
continue to subside, then rebounding to MVFR late Monday
morning. Guidance diverges on whether conditions continue to
improve late Monday or remain sub-vfr. Favored the more
pessimistic guidance as models generally weaken low-level
inversions like these too aggressively.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Some pockets of subVFR in fog st poss
late Mon night as winds become light. Tue through Thu shld see
mainlyVFR with little in the way of precip as high pres
dominates. Unsettled weather returns late in the week as front
moves into the area with some pds of subVFR likely.

Marine
Short term through Monday ...

as of 1000 pm Sunday... Winds have come down quite a bit over the
pamlico sound and opted to drop the gale warning here to be
replaced with a SCA until Monday morning. Still gusts over 35
knots offshore with waves anywhere from 11-19 feet per latest
observations and still expect seas to slowly improve through
the period.

Prev disc... Low pressure S of CAPE hatteras will slowly drift
eastward through the evening, then accelerate to the NE late
tonight and Monday. Area obs currently showing northerly winds
around 25-35 kt with gusts around 40-45 kt, highest across the
offshore waters, with seas around 14-19 ft northern and central
waters and 8-14 ft southern waters. Conditions are expected to
slowly improve through the period as the low moves away from the
area and will downgrade or remove headlines as conditions
warrant. Expect wind to diminish below SCA criteria mid day
Monday, though rough seas around 6-11 ft will keep the sca
across the coastal waters beyond the afternoon.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Nw winds become light Mon night into tue
as low pres conts to move away. Large seas will slowly subside
thru Tue with all wtrs dropping below 6 ft by late Tue tue
evening. High pres will build across Wed and Thu with NW winds
10 to 20 kts Wed becoming light W later thu, seas wl be 3 to 5
ft wed... Subsiding to 2 to 4 ft thu. Cold front will be
approaching Fri with wsw winds 15 to 25 kts and seas 4 to 6 ft.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 230 pm Sunday... Strong low pressure will slowly drift away
from the area through this evening, then lift quickly away from
the area Monday. We are just coming off the highest tide cycle
expected for this event and have seen many area of ocean
overwash along the obx. With very rough seas with descent wave
energy and run up, could continue to see area experience
overwash during the next two high tide cycles, though not as
severe as this past high tide.

Winds have shifted to the north through the morning and have
seen the water levels begin to recede along the neuse river
this afternoon, while rising along southern portions of hatteras
island and ocracoke where minor coastal flooding has begun.

Winds will slowly diminish through Monday and expect sound side
flooding to gradually improve through tonight.

Will drop the coastal flood advisory for tyrrell, mainland dare,
mainland hyde and beaufort counties with the afternoon package
and downgrade the warning across the obx, downeast carteret,
southern craven, and pamlico counties with the afternoon
forecast package.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am est Monday for ncz094-194-
196.

High surf advisory until 7 pm est Monday for ncz196-203>205.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm est Monday for ncz203>205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Monday for amz136.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Monday for amz131-137-230.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Monday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 9 am est Monday for amz231.

Gale warning until 7 am est Monday for amz150-152-154.

Gale warning until 4 am est Monday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sk ms
short term... Sk
long term... Rf
aviation... Rf sk
marine... Rf sk ms
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi63 min N 19 G 24 50°F 55°F1009.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi57 min N 21 G 26 50°F 1009 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC13 mi2 hrsNNW 19 G 24 miOvercast and Breezy51°F46°F86%1009.6 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi63 minN 15 G 2110.00 miOvercast50°F46°F86%1010 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi63 minN 1110.00 miOvercast47°F44°F90%1010.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi2 hrsN 15 G 2110.00 miOvercast51°F48°F92%1008.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN19
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2 days agoN5NW7NW10N10N9--N6NE10NE10NE10NE9NE9N9N11N10N10N12NE12NE13N10N12NE13N15N17

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:12 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:45 PM EST     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:40 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.91.71.30.90.50.30.30.511.522.32.42.21.91.40.90.50.30.30.50.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:21 AM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:11 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:44 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:02 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.71.61.51.20.80.50.30.20.30.71.21.7221.91.61.30.90.50.30.20.30.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.