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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 247 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers early this evening, then showers likely late this evening and overnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon, then becoming N 25 to 30 kt in the evening, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to rough in the afternoon, then increasing to very rough in the evening, diminishing to rough after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming around 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.

AMZ100 247 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Unsettled weather with light rainfall amounts continues through Sunday. High pressure builds in for Mon and Tue followed by a strong cold front Wed. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front Thu.

FXUS62 KMHX 021933 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 233 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather with light rainfall amounts continues through Sunday. High pressure builds in for Mon and Tue followed by a strong cold front Wed. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front Thu.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM Sat...The trend in the models is for less precipitation and thus lighter rainfall amounts through tomorrow night. Right now our current forecast is leaning toward the wetter solution and our PoPs will likely need to be adjusted downward in subsequent forecasts if current model trends hold.
The very warm temps are the most noteworthy aspect of the forecast and the warm weather is forecast to continue through tomorrow before a cold front crosses the area Mon night.

Ahead of the front a southerly flow of warm and occasionally moist air will continue across eastern NC through tomorrow.
Forcing is rather weak but there is decent agreement that an area of scattered to numerous light showers will develop across the area late this evening and continue through Sunday morning.
Latest QPF is indicating most locations receiving 0.10" or less through 12Z Sunday.

Areas of locally dense sea fog will be possible at times adjacent to the sounds and waters north of Cape Hatteras as the warm/moist air passes across the cooler waters. Low temps will be mild with lows in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 230 PM Sat...Continued mild Sun with scattered showers, especially in the morning. Some of the temp guidance is indicating highs in the upper 70s but think that low clouds in the morning will tend to persist into early afternoon before dissipating so went with low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Sunday...As the mid-level ridge over the ECONUS builds and the trough over the Midwest deepens, the gradient will tighten and bring an uptick in winds. The surface low associated with this trough will drag a cold front across ENC late Sunday into Monday and bring Chance to Likely PoPs with the chance for some offshore thunderstorms. The forecast has trended slightly drier over the past 24 hours with Sunday's daytime QPF down to approx. 0.1". Temps have trended up with highs in the low to mid 70s across the coastal plain (upper 60s beaches).

Monday - Tuesday...Another mid-level trough will sweep across the Midwest on Monday causing another cold front to traverse ENC overnight into Tuesday. This front looks fairly dry with the only impacts on sensible weather being cooler temps and an uptick in winds. Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s and at or just below 60 on Tuesday across the FA.

Wednesday...Not to sound like a broken record, but another mid-level trough will dig into the SECONUS early Wednesday. This system's cold front may support some showers along the OBX, but its passage will be felt more in terms of increased winds over the water and cooler overnight temps at or just below freezing across the coastal plain (beaches remain near 40).

Thursday - Friday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's FROPA and begins a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend (low 50s Thursday, near 60 Friday).

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...An extended period of sub-VFR conditions will develop across the TAF sites late this evening and continue into Sunday afternoon as high levels of low level moisture result in widespread low clouds developing late this evening.
Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR by late evening and LIFR/IFR after midnight, possibly lingering as late mid Sunday afternoon before dissipating. Light winds tonight will become SW with gusts to 20 kt Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Fog is possible each morning, but conditions should be pred VFR through the period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Areas of dense marine fog will continue to be a concern tonight over the sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras as the warm moist airmass travels across the cooler waters. This fog could persist into Sunday morning. The flow across the waters will remain SW/S through Sunday. For the most part, winds tonight will be 5 to 15 kt across the waters, the exception being over the outer southern and central waters in a region of warmer SST's where the flow is 10-20 kt. On Sunday afternoon the SW flow will increase ahead of the cold front to 15-20 kt north of Ocracoke Inlet and 15-25 kt south.
Thus have issued a SCA for the southern waters to account for this. Seas tonight will be mostly 3-4 ft building to to 3-5 ft north and 4-6 ft south Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Sunday night-Tuesday...Conditions drop below SCA criteria around midnight Monday. Waters north of Cape Hatteras will see SW winds 10-20 kt with gusts near 25 kt and 3-5 ft seas. SCA conditions for the waters south of Oregon Inlet return Monday night into Tuesday (NW winds 15-20 kt and gusts 25+ kt, 3-5 ft seas). Conditions improve during the day Tuesday and winds will back from NW to SW (10-15 kt).

Wednesday...SCA conditions return with the strongest gusts of the period Wednesday afternoon/evening (NW 15-25 kt with 30+ kt gusts). Seas will build from 2-3 ft Wednesday morning to 3-5 ft by Wednesday night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-135-150- 152-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for AMZ154-156-158.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 05:54 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:03 PM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:53 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Sat -- 12:41 AM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:02 PM EST     1.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:15 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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