KEY MESSAGES

1. Major cooldown continues through Monday and will remain below average through Thursday before a weekend warmup.

2. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM tonight through 5 PM Monday. There is a 40 percent probability of 3 inches of snow or more for Tioga Pass as snow level drops to 7500 ft.

3. There is a 20 to 60 percent probability of 0.05 inches or more of rain in the San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County on Monday.

4. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 5 PM this evening through 5 AM Tuesday morning for Eastern Kern County.

5. A second trough will slide in Wednesday and Thursday bringing more rain to the area.

DISCUSSION
We have a trough sliding into our area this afternoon to tomorrow bringing much cooler temperatures, rain to the San Joaquin Valley and foothills, and snow to the Sierra Nevada above 7,500 feet. The major headline with this trough is the Winter Weather Advisory for the Sierra Nevada above 8,000 feet as latest probabilities have a 40 percent chance of 3 inches of snow or more at Tioga Pass and a 40 to 80 percent probability of an inch of snow or more above 8,000 feet. Down in the San Joaquin Valley, there is a 20 to 60 percent probability of 0.05 inches or more of rain north of Kern County with the higher probabilities in Merced and Mariposa Counties. This rain also brings much needed cooling as there is a 25 to 60 percent probability of high temperatures of at least 75 degrees on Monday in the Valley with probabilities near 0 in the foothills.

This trough also is bringing strong winds to the high elevations of the Sierra Nevada and eastern Kern County. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 5 PM Sunday through 5 AM Tuesday for Eastern Kern County with gusts up to 50 mph possible. These stronger winds could play a factor into fire control with the cooling temperatures and increasing humidity.

A brief warmup and dry period is expected on Tuesday. However, model ensembles are in a strong agreement that a second trough slides in Wednesday into Thursday. However, this trough is expected to be a warmer but wetter trough. Latest probabilities also have a 25 to 65 percent probability of at least a tenth of an inch of rain from this storm. Probabilities still show a 40 percent chance of 3 inches of snow or more for Tioga Pass, however, the snow level is forecasted to be at or above 9,000 feet.

Model ensembles are in agreement that a ridge will move in and develop over our area on Friday and strengthening over the weekend. This ridge brings warmer temperatures as next Sunday has a 20 to 45 percent probability of a high temperature of at least 95 degrees in the Valley. This bodes well with the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks having a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures.




AVIATION
Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities near wildfires. Also, MVFR to IFR conditions possible in showers over the Sierra Nevada after 06Z Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ337>339.
Winter Weather Advisory above 8000 feet from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Monday for CAZ323-326>328.