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FXUS66 KHNX 022214 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 214 PM PST Sat Dec 2 2023


SYNOPSIS
The next several mornings may be greeted by areas of fog, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings. As a cold front swings through the Pacific Northwest this week, afternoon temperatures will flirt with 70 degrees on Wednesday. Once the cold front crosses central California on Friday, maximum temperatures will struggle to 60 degrees along with gusty winds in the mountains.

DISCUSSION

Updated for new Air Quality Statement.

1. Best opportunities for dense fog will be Monday and Tuesday mornings.

2. Strong foothill and mountain winds will arrive with much colder air by Friday.

3. Dry weather with no impactful precipitation will continue through next weekend.

Compared to last year's very wet start to the winter, we've had few dense fog events across the Central Valley. This wet season so far hasn't been wet enough to really drive a widespread dense fog event. However, as December has arrived, probabilistic guidance is keying in on Tuesday morning as featuring the best chance for dense fog. 50% of the ECMWF Ensemble members show visibility a quarter of a mile or less as far south as Hanford on Tuesday morning. There is a greater chance around Merced Monday and Tuesday mornings. This in part is due to increased ridging ahead of the Pacific Northwest cold front. The NBM pairs with HRRR, which places a 30% chance of dense fog in the north valley Monday morning.

As the cold front crashes through, the resulting strong pressure gradient between warm and cold airmasses has a 30-40% probability of producing winds gusting to 45 mph on Friday from the Grapevine to Tehachapi and into the Kern Deserts.

Through next weekend, any rain or snow would have to come by way of the cold front dropping along the west coast next week. For central California, little to no contribution of Pacific moisture will accompany this passage. Thus the 30-40 percent chance of rain and snow in the foothills and mountains Thursday night has only a 30 percent probability of being greater than 0.25" of liquid. At the highest elevations from Yosemite National Park south through Tulare county, the probability of 4" of snow is only 25 percent.
However, we cannot totally rule out a stronger storm considering it is several days away, as there remains a 10 percent probability of a foot or more above 8000 feet in Fresno, Madera and Tuolumne counties.

Atmospheric River diagnostic tools do not show any noteworthy contribution of Pacific moisture through next weekend. Analyzing the four 500mb anomaly cluster ensemble solutions, which is a combination of the Canadian Ensemble, the GFS Ensemble and the ECMWF Ensemble, there are two alternate extreme scenarios. 20 percent of the members suggest a stronger, deeper, colder, negatively tilted area of low pressure over Las Vegas. This would result in more wind and snow impacts next weekend for the Grapevine and Tejon Pass. The other 3 members, which compose the other 80 percent of all the ensemble members, show an area of low pressure that would have nothing but typical impacts one would expect this time of year. Nothing out of the ordinary.


AVIATION
MVFR conditions, at worst are expected overnight with light winds and a sct-bkn ceiling around 10kft. If IFR conditions occur, they would be brief and north of Fresno with 25% of the ECMWF Ensemble members showing a quarter mile or less with agreement from the HRRR.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/02/2023 13:04 EXPIRES: 12/03/2023 23:59 On Sunday December 3 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings and Merced Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Santa Monica
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Sat -- 02:27 AM PST     3.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:15 AM PST     3.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:20 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:25 AM PST     4.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
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Santa Monica
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Sat -- 02:34 AM PST     3.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 AM PST     3.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:20 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:24 AM PST     4.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:37 PM PST     0.31 feet Low Tide
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