Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indian Trail, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday: Upper ridge off the Southeast Coast with Bermuda high in place at the surface will continue to bring WAA to the area with temperatures a good 10-15 degrees above normal overnight. Occasional high clouds passing through in the SW flow aloft. As we move into Easter Sunday, despite the upper ridge continuing to dominate, a bit of lee troughing may develop as a mid- level low approaches from the west and starts to lift over the ridge. Moisture advection especially at 850mb should allow more afternoon cloudiness to develop in almost a summertime Cu pattern as temperatures rise to similar levels as today, 10+ degrees above seasonal normals.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 151 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) A weakening frontal system will arrive Monday night and result in increasing rain chances from Tuesday morning onward.

2) Thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday afternoon, but with little risk of severe weather.

3) Well above normal temperatures on Monday will moderate somewhat, but remain above normal on Tuesday.

No major changes to the short term forecast. A deep and increasingly tilted upper ridge will begin to break down on Monday as a compact shortwave rides up and over it, skirting its way across the upper Ohio Valley and into New England by the latter part of the period. Its surface reflection will dig across the Tennessee Valley in the form of a weakening cold front, still progged to arrive in the Carolinas by Monday night into early Tuesday. As the shortwave lifts north, the frontal circulation will begin breaking down, and by the time associated precip gets going Tuesday afternoon, it will be stagnating. Finding itself oriented increasingly parallel to flattening upper flow, it'll be marooned roughly along the I-85 corridor by late Tuesday.

Despite the front's lack of vigor, its position will nonetheless provide a trigger for convective activity Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a plume of some 400-800 J/kg (even approaching 1000 J/kg across our southernmost tier of counties) develops. Kinematics aren't impressive, however - even the high end of ensemble guidance keeps deep shear below 20kts, with basically no curvature. So, severe threat with any of this activity looks minimal. Only other story is temps, which look to land some 10-12 degrees above normal Monday afternoon, and then 6-9 degrees above normal on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 151 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Daily shower and thunderstorm activity is likely each afternoon from Wednesday through Saturday, but with minimal severe risk.

2) Warm and muggy conditions are expected through the period.

A murky upper pattern will set up for the remainder of the seven-day forecast. Relaxed, quasi-zonal flow will persist the remainder of the week, providing little, if any, synoptic forcing to drive the deteriorating frontal zone out of our region. Diurnal showers and thunder can thus be expected each evening (with similar low risk of severe weather) across most of the area. The latest 12z round of ensemble guidance has backed off significantly on the potential for a mid/late-week shortwave to cause any reactivation of the boundary...the remnants of which are now favored to remain in our area right through the end of Day 7. Temperatures, accordingly, will remain a couple categories above normal through the period.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR through the period with occasional cirrus passing through. Round of VFR Cu expected to develop Sunday afternoon with daytime heating as well. SSW winds to start with low- end gusts, but pressure gradient weakens overnight so winds will diminish and may go lgt/vrb briefly. Will pick up again Sunday toward the end of the period 5-10kt.

Outlook: VFR to finish the weekend. Periodic rain chances and restrictions return with a wavering frontal boundary Monday night and may linger through much of next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.