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FXUS62 KRAH 021949 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 245 PM EST Sat Dec 02 2023

SYNOPSIS
A wedge of high pressure will be shunted to the north overnight followed by a cold front moving across North Carolina Sunday. A weakening low pressure system will then move across the region Monday.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 215 PM Saturday...

18z surface analysis shows a rather stout slowly migrating CAD front bisecting central NC from Wadesboro to Raleigh to north of Tarboro.
This boundary separates mid 50s over the Triad from low 70s across the Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills. Pulling back a bit, there is a weak area of low pressure moving through the OH Valley with a trailing cold front stretching SW through the lower TN Valley which meets up with a maritime front along the GOM Coast. Regional radar shows two main areas of precipitation. The first along and behind the cold front, associated with a maxima in upper divergence and isentropic lift over the boundary, with the second along and north of the maritime front with measurable rain spreading into southern AL and central GA. In between, more specifically over central NC, weak subsidence between these two regimes as well as subtle isentropic lift, largely parallel to the CAD boundary, has resulted in sporadic drizzle and pockets of light rain over the area.

Expect this general pattern to continue with a better chance for measurable rain tonight as the LLJ strengthens resulting in strong moist-isentropic upglide along the 295-300K surface. Additionally, embedded within this area of rain, some pockets of moderate showers may develop as some elevated instability (around 250 J/kg MUCAPE)
over the western Piedmont late tonight and may result in some isolated higher rainfall totals into Sun morning. Lows tonight will be well above average (mid 50s to low 60s) underneath thick cloud cover isolating the anomalously warm/moist airmass in place over the region.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Surface low should track west of the area Sunday morning, with a trailing cold front slowly making its way through the area during the afternoon/evening. Plume of 1.5-1.75 PW's along with a weak mid level shortwave trough will promote scattered showers during the morning hours, but the plume will gradually shift eastward through the day with showers ending as early as 15-18Z in the western Piedmont. To the east a few showers could linger until late afternoon but nearly all forecast profiles dry out by 00Z Monday.
PoPs will remain in the 40-50 percent range through the morning, then drop off quickly from west to east through the day. Rain amounts will be very light, only a few hundredths of an inch.

Temps will vary across the area once again, but perhaps not to the extent as what we've seen today. Highs in the western Piedmont will reach the mid to upper 60s while temps in the southern Coastal Plain will make a run at the mid 70s before the cold front arrives late in the day. Lows will range from the low 40s in the west to the low 50s in the east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 215 PM Saturday...

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, low pressure will be over western Kentucky with an associated upper low to the northwest. As the system moves east on Monday, the upper low will open into a trough, which in turn will allow the surface low to fill. By Monday evening, there won't be any representation of the surface low on the map. The 12Z NAM/ECMWF keep pops out of the forecast area Monday afternoon, while the GFS/GEFS have less areal coverage of rain than their previous runs. Along those lines, have also slightly reduced the area of slight chance pops from the inherited forecast for Monday afternoon. The forecast then dries out as high pressure moves in for Monday night and Tuesday.

A weak surface low is forecast to move from Wisconsin over the Ohio River valley and off the North Carolina shoreline Tuesday into Wednesday. It does not appear that there will be much precipitation to the east side of the Appalachian Mountains due to a lack of moisture, although precipitation will increase in coverage once the low moves offshore and has moisture available from the Atlantic Ocean. While rain may develop across eastern North Carolina Wednesday morning, do not have enough confidence to add pops in central North Carolina at this time. Wind gusts will be between 20- 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with a tight pressure gradient between the offshore low and high pressure across the central Plains. High pressure will then move over the southeastern United States for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

Highs on Monday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday's values, but still a couple degree above normal. Highs will then drop about 5 degrees each of the next two days before evening out for Thursday, then moderating Friday and Saturday with flow out of the west-southwest. Lows will generally be in the 30s, although lows should be below freezing Wednesday night between the colder air behind the cold front and the clearing skies.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1258 PM Saturday...

IFR to LIFR cigs have been slowly collapsing NW as the warm front migrates northward, with a transition to MVFR/VFR to the south. The CAD wedge boundary over the Triad terminals (GSO/INT) has held strong with persistent fog and LIFR cigs into the early afternoon.
GSO/INT are expected to stay VLIFR/LIFR through a majority of the TAF period with only brief vsby improvement later this afternoon before filling back in. All terminals are expected to return to LIFR/VLIFR tonight into Sun morning. The LLJ will strengthen again tonight resulting in LLWS and light rain impacting all terminals at times throughout the night. With aviation restrictions easing towards MVFR at the Triad terminals towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Looking beyond 18z Sun, gradual improvement in cigs is expected Sun afternoon as drying mid-levels and a front begin to move through the area. As cigs lift and scatter out, gusty SW winds 15-25kts will be possible before subsiding after sunset. VFR conditions are expected through Thurs.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 2: KFAY: 64/1991

December 3: KRDU: 58/1982

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Conway
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Sat -- 12:18 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:18 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:35 PM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Sat -- 01:21 AM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     0.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:37 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:22 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:33 PM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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