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FXUS62 KRAH 020039 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 739 PM EST Fri Dec 01 2023

SYNOPSIS
A front will become quasi-stationary over the Piedmont of the Carolinas through Saturday night, then get swept eastward and offshore by a passing cold front Sunday and Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 324 PM Friday...

As expected, precipitation amounts so far today have mostly been reported as trace to a few hundreds of an inch (mostly in the Triad). The bulk of this morning's light precipitation has mostly moved up into VA at this point. However, some additional spotty pockets of light rain have recently developed over the higher terrain to our west. Expect this light rain to work it's way east over the next several hours but again generate mostly trace to a few hundreds of an inch of rain the rest of this evening. While dew points will continue to climb into the 50s/lower 60s tonight behind an advancing warm front (currently draped across the Coastal Plain), stronger forcing for ascent won't arrive until near sunrise Saturday morning. Thus, overnight rain chances should be fairly limited through ~12Z Saturday. Cloud cover and the slowed advancement of the warm front should keep overnight temperatures fairly warm in the upper 40s (NW) to lower 60s (SE).

The main concern tonight is the potential for dense fog to develop along the warm front which is forecast to stall across central NC.
There has been high run to run consistency from the HRRR in developing dense fog particularly for locations along and just west of I-95 (as well as high HRRR probabilities (>70 %)for severely reduced sfc visibilities in this vicinity). Areas of dense fog have been added to this forecast package between ~06 and 14Z to account for this likelihood.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 324 PM Friday...

The upper level jet between a digging mid/upper low into the central CONUS and building subtropical ridge over the eastern GOM and Carribean will strengthen to 150-180kts Sat into Sun. The associated upper divergence and decaying convection over the Lower TN Valley early Sat morning will spread NE into central NC late Sat morning before lifting off to the N and NE during the afternoon/evening hours. Anomalously high deep layer moisture (PWAT > 99th percentile)
in combination with strengthening isentropic ascent over a maritime warm front to the south will support another round of rain with embedded showers Sat evening into the overnight hours, maximized over the SC/NC border before shifting offshore. Mid-level drying builds in behind the departing precipitation axis, but lingering low level moisture ahead of a cold fropa may lead to some light/shallow precipitation however, measurable precipitation will be difficult to produce as CAA and drying of the thermo-profile continues overnight Sun into early Mon.

A CAD wedge boundary will be firmly in place over central NC leading to a strong temperature gradient over the area Sat with nearly a 15 degree difference from the Triad to the southern Coastal Plain.
Expansive cloud cover Sat night into Sun will keep lows in the mid 40s (NW) to low 60s (SE), which is 15-25 degrees above normal for early December. Sun should be warmer with less widespread rain and further inland retreat of the CAD boundary with low-level mixing resulting in highs in the mid/upper 60s (NW) to mid 70s (S). Lows Sun night will be entirely driven by how much CAA can spill into the area overnight with current forecast showing mid 40s (NW) to low 50s (SE).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 324 PM Friday...

By Monday, the cold front will have moved offshore, although cloud cover will linger through the morning into the afternoon. While the 12Z GFS/GEFS show another impulse moving over the mountains and approaching the Piedmont with some light showers Monday afternoon, this is not supported by other model guidance, and have continued with a dry forecast. A dry cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, with high pressure filling in behind the front. Monday will be the warmest day of the extended forecast, with temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s a couple degrees above normal.
Temperatures will tumble through the next few days, with highs dropping about 5 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday before rising back towards 60 degrees on Friday. Temperatures should be slightly above freezing each night except for Wednesday night, when lows will dip into the 20s in many locations.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 735 PM FRIDAY...

A quasi-stationary, wedge front over the Piedmont of the Carolinas will focus to its northwest initially IFR-MVFR conditions and light rain. Those conditions are likely to lower into LIFR-IFR range as the rain further moistens/saturates an associated cool and stable, cold air damming airmass there. Meanwhile, moisture transport along and to the southeast of the front will promote the development of VLIFR-LIFR conditions, including dense fog, across the remainder of cntl NC overnight. Low level wind shear will also be possible tonight, as a 35-40 kt low level jet overspreads a stable and only weakly stirred surface layer tonight. Very low overcast and areas of dense fog will be slow to lift and disperse through the day Saturday, to VFR by early afternoon at RWI and FAY and probably only to IFR at INT/GSO. Additional waves of light rain, and embedded heavier showers, will also result Sat, as strong and weakly perturbed swly flow aloft overspreads and interacts with the quasi- stationary front over the Carolinas.

Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR conditions and rain will persist this weekend, lowest with LIFR-IFR fog and very low overcast likely to result again with nocturnal cooling Saturday night, at which time another round of LLWS will again be possible. A separate front will cross the Carolinas and scour the preceding low-level moisture on Sunday, with an associated return to VFR conditions that will be accompanied by a strong and gusty swly surface wind Sunday afternoon.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 2: KFAY: 64/1991

December 3: KRDU: 58/1982

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Conway
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Fri -- 05:30 AM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:33 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:00 PM EST     Moonrise
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Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Fri -- 12:38 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM EST     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:37 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:50 PM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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