Ashley Heights, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashley Heights, NC

June 24, 2024 2:46 PM EDT (18:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM
Moonrise 10:16 PM   Moonset 7:30 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 241813 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 213 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A strong mid level trough and accompanying surface front will cross North Carolina today, then settle just to our southeast tonight.
Weak high pressure will pass over the area late tonight through early Tuesday, then push quickly offshore late Tuesday, allowing hot and humid conditions to return for Wednesday. Another front will approach from the northwest early Thursday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1100 AM Monday...

Water vapor imagery depicts a potent mid-level trough stretching from southern Quebec to the eastern Great Lakes and northern Appalachians. This is dragging a weak surface cold front that is currently analyzed over the northern Piedmont, separating dew points in the mid-to-upper-60s from dew points in the mid-to-upper-70s over the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. The front will slowly move SE through the rest of central NC this afternoon and evening.
However, there will be little change in temperature today even in the NW where the front has already passed, with highs only 1-3 degrees lower compared to yesterday (lower-to-mid-90s). More clouds and precipitation chances in the SE will also help keep temperatures down a bit there. But the main difference with the frontal passage will be the drop in dew points, and the lower humidity will help heat indices be a bit less uncomfortable than yesterday, ranging from lower-90s in the far NW to near 100 in the south and east.
Basic heat precautions should still be taken especially given multiple days in a row of above-normal temperatures.

The other story today will be a limited threat for severe thunderstorms, as SPC expanded the marginal (level 1 of 5) risk to include the entire Coastal Plain. Still think the greatest threat will be in the SE (generally south and east of Raleigh) as the cold front won't reach there until the afternoon and evening, and there will be time for an unstable air mass to develop out ahead of it.
The 12z HRRR shows 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, and low-level lapse rates there look quite high (9-10 degrees C per km). 0-6 km wind shear on the HRRR doesn't look too impressive, around 20-30 kts, but it still could be enough to support isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Upper forcing will be limited as we only get a glancing blow and weak height falls from the trough that passes well to our north, so coverage shouldn't be too widespread. Keep chance POPs in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain except likely in the far SE. Over much of the Piedmont, drier more stable air filtering in from NW flow behind the front should inhibit convective development.

Most places will be dried out behind the front by 00z, except slight chance POPs linger into the evening hours in Sampson County. Skies will be mostly clear tonight as lows drop into the mid-60s to lower- 70s, much less mild compared to last night but still slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM Monday...

Expect a mostly dry day with returning heat. The weak high pressure passing over the Mid Atlantic region early Tue will quickly weaken further and push offshore, placing our area back into a light southerly component flow with low level thicknesses rebounding back to around 10 m above normal. PWs will have dropped to around 1", with higher values lingering near our extreme SE sections, where an isolated afternoon storm can't be ruled out, particularly along an inland-pushing sea breeze. Otherwise, skies should be fair with deep mixing and just some high-based flat afternoon cu beneath warm and stable mid levels. Highs will be mostly in the mid 90s. Expect lows Tue night in the upper 60s to lower 70s as higher dewpoints begin to advect back into the area. -GIH

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
As of 205 PM Monday...

Hot Temperatures Will Continue through Next Weekend

Seasonable/Climo Rain Chances Return

Heat and humidity increases Wednesday ahead of another approaching weak cold front that will cross the area Wednesday night/early Thursday. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, with afternoon temps expected to top out between 95-100, and heat indices in the upper 90s NW to 100-105 over central and eastern NC. While some isolated pre-frontal convection is possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, the bulk of central NC will most likely see it's rainfall from an ana-frontal rain band that will cross the area late Wednesday night and Thursday. There's a very plausible chance that the front could stall out or quickly lift back north as a warm front on Friday, resulting in additional rain chances. Right now, precipitation amounts looks to be light, with average rainfall amounts expected to be between 0.10-0.25", with some localized heavier amounts.

The heat should briefly moderate on Thursday with troughing moving through. However, the subtropical ridge initially centered over the southern Plains will expand eastward into the Southeast Friday and over next weekend, bringing a renewed threat for hazardous heat with heat indices again in the upper 90s NW to 100 to 105 across central and eastern NC.

Another cold front, potentially the strongest of the week, is slated to cross the area late Sunday into the day on Monday, and will bring additional rain chances in showers and storms, and another brief stint of cooler, less humid conditions early next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 210 PM Monday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail across roughly the NW half of central NC, including at RDU, GSO and INT, through the next 24 hours. Across the south and east, including at FAY and RWI, a cold front will result in scattered showers and storms from now through early evening. Sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities and gusty winds will be possible with any storm. The best chance for this is around FAY. Once the front clears the far SE by around 02z, any shower and storm chances will come to an end.
Mostly clear skies and VFR will prevail everywhere for the rest of the period as drier air filters in. Winds will shift from the W/SW ahead of the front to N/NW behind it, possibly gusting up to 15-20 kts at times. Winds will diminish after dark and shift to the NE and eventually E by tomorrow morning.

Looking beyond 18z Tue: Expect mostly dry and VFR conditions through Tue night. Isolated late day storms are possible late Wed, followed by a better chance of afternoon/evening showers and storms Thu, along with possible sub-VFR ceilings Thu morning. Otherwise, outside of any storms, the risk of widespread sub-VFR conditions is low through Sat.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 24: KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 102/1914

June 25: KRDU: 100/1952 KFAY: 102/1914

June 26: KRDU: 102/1952 KFAY: 101/1951

June 27: KFAY: 102/1998

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 24: KGSO: 76/2015 KRDU: 76/1888 KFAY: 79/2010

June 25: KFAY: 75/1952

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 76/1902 KFAY: 76/1997

June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998

June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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Tide / Current for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
   
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Conway
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Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
-0
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.7
3
am
1.1
4
am
1.4
5
am
1.5
6
am
1.5
7
am
1.4
8
am
1.1
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.1
12
pm
0
1
pm
0.1
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
0.7
4
pm
1
5
pm
1.2
6
pm
1.2
7
pm
1.1
8
pm
0.9
9
pm
0.6
10
pm
0.3
11
pm
0


Tide / Current for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Mon -- 12:14 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:08 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
-0.1
1
am
-0
2
am
0.2
3
am
0.5
4
am
0.9
5
am
1.1
6
am
1.2
7
am
1.2
8
am
1.1
9
am
0.9
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.3
12
pm
0.1
1
pm
0
2
pm
0.1
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
0.8
6
pm
0.9
7
pm
1
8
pm
0.9
9
pm
0.7
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.2


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Raleigh/Durham, NC,




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