Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:46 PM   Moonset 3:19 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 200712 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 311 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend across and offshore the Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1000 PM Sunday...

Only minor tweaks were made to hourly temperatures and sky cover as stratocumulus deck has persisted longer in the Coastal Plain while widespread clearing has occurred across the Piedmont. Otherwise the forecast remains on track for areas of fog develop across northern portions of the Piedmont with patchy fog elsewhere.

As of 400 PM Sunday...

Water vapor imagery shows multiple embedded waves within an elongated trough axis extending from off the Northeast coast through the Mid-Atlantic with a compact shortwave at its base over the SC/GA coast. One wave sliding through south-central VA will continue southward and over central NC through this evening with some Hi-Res guidance indicating a light sprinkle or two, but most locations will remain dry as RAP point forecast soundings show multiple weak inversions aloft and relatively dry thermodynamic profile.

Widespread afternoon cumulus is expected to dissipate with loss of boundary layer mixing, minus pockets light rain/sprinkles and associated cumulus clouds, will briefly lead to mostly clear skies early overnight. Light northeasterly flow overnight will advect marine layer stratus into the Coastal Plain towards daybreak. West of this cloud deck, lingering rich boundary layer moisture and mostly clear skies will favor the development for areas of fog, potentially dense is some locations, from the Triangle towards the Triad by daybreak Monday morning. Overnight lows will settle in the mid 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 152 PM Sunday...

High pressure ridging will be in place at mid-levels for our Monday.
High pressure at the surface off the east coast will continue to nose down into the area, resulting in a NE flow once again. We will see some stratocumulus develop for the daytime, but more sunshine is expected as deeper mixing ensues, especially across the Coastal Plain. The airmass will warm some too, but highs should still be about a degree or so below seasonal norms in the upper 70s to low 80s, lowest in the NE Piedmont to northern Coastal Plain of perhaps mid 70s. Clear skies and light winds in the evening and overnight will favor lows a touch below average in the mid to upper 50s, except low to mid 50s in the NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.
Lingering low-level moisture could favor fog development from the Triangle eastward into the Coastal Plain for early Tue morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 311 AM Monday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging over the eastern US will shift offshore through Wednesday evening. A low- amplitude upper trough will then lift through the Great Lakes Thursday. A short wave will then move through the TN Valley and wash out over central NC Friday into the weekend.

Wednesday: The western ridge of an offshore sfc high will extend light sswly flow across central NC on Wednesday. Void of forcing for ascent and lingering below normal PWAT, Wednesday will remain dry. Given the sswly flow, however, temps will begin to steadily rise reaching the mid 80s Wednesday afternoon. Warm overnight lows in the lower 60s is expected.

Thursday through Sunday. Ensembles continue to suggest the potential for periods of rain over this time as upper forcing from the aforementioned upper features move overhead. On Thursday, an upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day.
However, the better forcing and low-level moisture transport appears to stay well to our north, and thus continue to maintain just slight chance to low chance POPs across our central to northern areas during this time.

From Friday onward, ensembles continue to simulate a potentially potent short wave riding through the TN Valley and eventually over central NC through Sunday. Periods of rain look promising over this temporal period, the details of which are hard to pin down at this point. Severe weather parameters are not popping off the charts at this point, but periods of higher shear could promote some isolated stronger storms especially Friday afternoon/evening.

There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday. The quartile spread widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend.



AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 115 AM Monday...

A band of IFR-MVFR stratus now over ern VA/NC, and as far west as RWI, will continue to spread wwd and across cntl NC this morning.
Visibility restrictions will develop both on the ern edge of that cloud band, and also in preceding, patches of shallow, radiation fog ahead of it. A separate area of multi-layered, stratocumulus and altocumulus over wrn NC/VA, and as far east as INT/GSO, will probably inhibit radiational cooling sufficiently to keep any sub- VFR restrictions at INT very brief around daybreak, if at all. The depth of the associated stratus/fog layer, where it occurs, should be much shallower and consequently disperse more quickly to VFR than that of Sun morning - likely by 13-14Z.

Outlook: A risk of late night-early morning fog/stratus will continue especially over ern and e-cntl NC through mid-week, followed by a chance of afternoon-evening showers/storms Thu and Fri.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Conway
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Mon -- 01:38 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:44 PM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Mon -- 02:37 AM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:02 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:42 PM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:08 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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