Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oceano, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...08/155 PM.

Offshore winds have begun to subside this afternoon and will allow the Wind Advisory to expire on time at 3 pm. Breezy east winds will transition south to southeast into Monday morning with a southerly surge expected to bring morning low clouds and fog to the coast and significant cooling to all but the far interior areas. The same low pressure system that has supported the prolonged moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will spin back north into Monday and may bring mid to high level clouds to eastern LA County with any rain likely well to our east.

After daytime highs today well into the 80s and low 90s in warmer spots, we'll see highs only in the 70s into Monday. As such, the Heat Advisory will very likely be allowed to expire on time this evening. However, we are far from done with the heat as a prolonged period of widespread mid 80s to 90s will likely begin Thursday and may continue into next week. We'll see the very front end of the trends Wednesday as moderate offshore flow combined with a rapidly building ridge nosing in from the east to bump temperatures back into the 80s in warmer coastal valleys to interior. Breezy northwest to northeast winds are likely beginning Tuesday, possibly approaching advisory levels by Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...08/155 PM.

Max temps will be the main talking point of the three day stretch.
Look for 5 to 10 degrees of warming (across the csts/vlys) both Wed and Thu with little change slated for Friday. Thu/Fri's max temps will be in the mid and upper 70s at the beaches, the 80s across the rest of the csts, and 90s for the vlys. These max temps are 15 to 25 degrees over normal.

The ridge will break down on Saturday and offshore flow from the north will weaken while the onshore push to the east will increase. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of cooling with max temps remaining well above normal with moderate heat impacts potentially continuing through the weekend and even into next week away from the coast.

Both AI-EC and AI-GFS are dry through the 23rd of the month.

AVIATION
08/1742Z.

At 1700Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or an inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs through this evening, then a chance for IFR-MVFR flight cats at KSMX (30%), KSBA (20%), KOXR (20%), KSMO (30%), KLAX (50%), and KLGB (60%) after 10Z. Low confidence in potential flight cats, especially early, where LIFR conds are possible.

Moderate confidence in winds, lowest confidence for KBUR and KSMO, especially with wind direction shifts. A moderate Catalina eddy will develop overnight, likely bringing SE winds to coastal sites, including potentially at KSMX and KSBP.

Light to occasionally moderate LLWS and turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through this afternoon.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through this evening.
Overnight, there is a 50% chance that cigs do not develop.
Moderate confidence in an east wind component reaching 8 kt from 03Z-14Z. 20% chance for brief winds gusting to 15 kt, especially 04Z-10Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Less than 10% chance for cigs after 13Z, but very low confidence in flight cat if cigs arrive (VLIFR-IFR). Moderate confidence in wind forecast as direction may be off by 20 degrees and gusts may be off by +/- 10 kt during peak winds.

MARINE
08/1222 PM.

Santa Ana Winds will decrease through this afternoon and rapidly transition into northwest Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across the waters southwest and southeast of Point Conception (including nearshore areas). A moderate Catalina Eddy will develop tonight, brining southeast to east winds of 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots to the waters south of Point Conception through tomorrow morning.

Periods of SCA level northwest winds will then dominate the Outer Waters through the remainder of the week, with low chances of SCA level winds reaching the Inner Waters. Seas will also reach near 10 feet late Monday into Wednesday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-369>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Heat Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 362-366>370-372-373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to noon PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).