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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1024 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 1024 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A dry backdoor cold front will cross the area late today, with strong high pressure building in from the south and west through midweek. A series of storm systems will then impact the area beginning Friday into the weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 281532 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1032 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A dry backdoor cold front will cross the area late today, with strong high pressure building in from the south and west through midweek. The emergence of the high pressure will result in cold and dry conditions into Friday. A series of storm systems will then impact the area beginning Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1000 AM Tuesday...Temperatures have risen to the low 40s during this update and high cloud cover is broken to overcast along coastal areas south of Oregon Inlet. The clouds will be moving offshore over the next few hours, leaving for sunny conditions in the late afternoon and evening. A reinforcing shot of cold air will surge into the area behind a dry, backdoor cold front late today. The airmass behind this front will be the coldest so far this fall. Gusty NW winds will develop this afternoon with high temps only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Max temps will be reached early this afternoon with temps falling quickly as the sun angle lowers late in the day. NW winds 15-25 mph will gust to around 30 mph inland and around 40 mph along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 540 AM Tuesday...Near record low temps are expected overnight as the cold airmass settles across the Carolinas.
Gusty winds will diminish rapidly in the evening with inland locations expected to completely decouple by late evening resulting in strong radiational cooling and plummeting temps overnight. The NBM was the coldest temperature guidance with the coldest lows deep inland in the upper teens and was used for this forecast but probably represents a worst case scenario.
The other MOS temp guidance was a tad warmer with forecast lows in the low to mid 20s. Starting to become a little skeptical that lows will drop below 20 degrees. Nonetheless it will be quite cold for November.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area through mid week bringing dry weather and temps well below normal. High pressure slides offshore late in the week with a more active pattern expected to develop through the weekend.

Wednesday through Thursday...Broad cyclonic flow persists across the eastern CONUS Wednesday with sfc high pressure becoming centered across the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave will move through Wednesday night serving to reinforce CAA and bringing a bit more high clouds across the region but otherwise the airmass will be very dry with PW values less than a quarter inch. Temps will be well below normal through Wednesday night with lows in the 20s inland and 30s along the coast and highs in the mid 40s to around 50. Temps moderate back to near normal on Thursday as the upper trough begins to lift nwd and sfc high pressure begins to slide offshore.

Friday through Monday...A more active pattern develops late in the week as the southern stream jet becomes dominant across the southern CONUS and a series of systems lifts across the area.
Guidance a bit faster bringing precip back across the area on Friday but overall the typical timing, strength and available moisture differences remain among the models. Continue to generally follow NBM guidance but limited PoPs to chance giving the differences. Temps are expected to be above normal this period.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 540 AM Tuesday...High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period as dry high pressure builds over the area over the next several days. Gusty NW winds to 25 kt are expected from late this morning through late this afternoon with winds subsiding to near calm inland overnight. Canopy of high Cirrus clouds shifts offshore in the afternoon. Looks too dry for any fog though the cold temps could prompt some shallow "steam" fog near bodies of water late tonight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area through the middle of the week bringing pred VFR conditions but temps will be quite cold and could see early morning steam fog along water ways bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions at the usual terminals, PGV and EWN, especially Wednesday morning when temps will be at their coldest. A more active pattern develops across the area late in the week and could see showers develop Friday with sub-VFR conditions possible.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 540 AM Tuesday...SCA's are in effect for all of the waters today and tonight as cold advection behind a dry, backdoor front results in strong NW winds which peak around 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this afternoon and evening. Since the flow will be offshore, the shorter fetch /20 nm/ will result in the highest seas around 6 ft occurring over the outer waters.
The strong winds are forecast to diminish to 10-15 kt after 6Z tonight with seas subsiding to 2-5 ft by sunrise Wed morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area through the middle of the week with a low pressure system impacting the area late in the week.

Winds diminish to 5-15 kt Wednesday but another shortwave pushes through Wednesday night with winds briefly increasing to 10-20 kt. Winds then diminish to 5-10 kt Thursday while backing to SW as the high moves offshore. Seas around 2-4 ft early Wednesday morning will subside to 1-3 ft Wednesday afternoon through early Friday, but will build to 2-4 ft Wednesday night with a brief surge in Wly winds. A low pressure system will approach from the west late in the week and will see Sly winds increase to 15-20+ kt on Friday into Friday night with seas building to 4-7 ft. Improving conditions expected Saturday with the area between wx systems.

CLIMATE
Record Low temps for 11/29 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 23/1967 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 29/2014 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 17/1930 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 24/2002 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 16/1901 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 24/2002 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

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Ocracoke
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Tue -- 01:39 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:59 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:08 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:14 PM EST     0.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

Hatteras Inlet
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Tue -- 01:23 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:23 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:11 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina (2), Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,