Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:26PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 7:35 PM EDT (23:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:11PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 614 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..E winds around 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 222038
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
438 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure
then builds in Wednesday through Thursday night. Another cold
front approaches the area by the end of week.

Near term through tonight
As of 4 pm Tuesday... A cold front is currently pushing across
the central piedmont and will move through enc this evening.

Pre-frontal showers have been fairly sparse across enc this
afternoon but expect a more organized line to push through this
evening just ahead of the front. SPC continues to outlook the
are in a marginal risk of severe with bulk shear around 50-60
kt across much of the area, however instability remains modest
with MUCAPE just around 500-1000 j kg, so the severe threat
seems fairly limited but still could see strong wind gusts if
stronger storms do develop. Showers will push offshore late this
evening with clearing through the overnight. CAA ramps up after
midnight with temps falling to the low to mid 50s inland to
lower 60s along the coast.

Short term Wednesday
As of 4 pm Tuesday... High pressure builds into the area from the
west with a much drier airmass in place with pw values dropping
to around a third of an inch. Expect mainly sunny skies with
highs near climo, generally in the lower 70s.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
As of 330 am tue... Strong high pressure will move across the
deep south and settle over the carolinas for the end of the work
week, keeping conditions dry and seasonable. Eventually the
high will move off to the northeast and make way for a system
coming out of the gulf of mexico, but long term models continue
to carry significant differences from Friday evening through the
weekend and into early next week. Therefore, a very low
confidence forecast for the back half of the long term. The gfs
solution at this time is much quicker with the arrival of a
frontal system spurred on by and upper level trough digging down
through the mississippi valley. The ECMWF solution doesn't
carry this feature and instead illustrates a more zonal pattern
in the upper levels and a continental surface high over the ohio
valley that keeps precipitation confined to the lower
mississippi valley. This results in a much later arrival time
for precipitation across eastern nc. While still favoring the
gfs solution for the time being, have gone ahead and cut pop for
the weekend to slight chance and low end chance, to give some
acknowledgement to the ec solution.

Regardless what happens at the end of the long term, the front half
will be dry and temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s in most
locations Wednesday through Friday. At night, some decent
radiational cooling could see temps inland down in the low to mid
40s on Wednesday night, but rebounding Thursday and Friday nights
back into the 50s with mid 60s along the coast. This trend of 70s
during the day and 50s and 60s at night should continue through the
end of the long term but will be dependent upon the eventual
pattern.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 130 pm tue... Widespread MVFR conditions currently across
the terminals, and expect this to continue into this evening.

Scattered showers will continue through early this evening, and
may see a few thunderstorms develop bringing brief periods of
ifr and gusty winds. Will continue to handle with vcsh and
tempos, given expected coverage. ExpectVFR conditions to return
this evening, continuing into wed. The front will cross the
terminals late this evening and overnight, and skies will clear
quickly from west to east.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 430 am Tuesday...VFR conditions are likely through
Friday. Some increase in cloud cover Friday ahead of the
approaching cold front. By Saturday, some brief sub-vfr
conditions may occur in scattered showers.

Marine
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 415 pm Tuesday... A cold front is approaching from the west
with S to SE winds around 10-20 kt this afternoon. The front
will push through late this evening with winds becoming nw
around 15-20 kt after midnight. Could see an occasional gust to
25 kt but generally winds should remain below SCA criteria. Seas
currently around 3-5 ft this afternoon and guidance showing seas
building up to 6 ft across portions of the central and northern
waters and will hold on to the SCA in these locations. NW winds
diminish through the day Wednesday and expected to be around 10
kt or less by late in the day with seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 430 am Tuesday... With broad high pressure then building
into the region from the west, through late week will feature
winds at mostly 10 knots or less, approaching 15 knots closer to
20 nm offshore, with seas 2 to no more than 4 feet with no sca
conditions expected.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz203-
205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Wednesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Rte
aviation... Rte cqd
marine... Rte sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi54 min S 9.9 G 12 74°F 72°F1010.3 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 34 mi26 min S 19 G 23 78°F 76°F1010.5 hPa74°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi36 min SSW 9.9 G 13 75°F 1010.4 hPa (-0.0)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi54 min SSW 9.9 G 12 75°F 71°F1010.5 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi45 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast73°F73°F100%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr333NE5NE5N33NW4NW3NW535NE54E6SE6E8SE11SE8S8SE10
G16
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1 day agoW9
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6N74N744434
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S14SW12SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:19 AM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:49 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.20.10.10.20.40.60.811.110.90.60.40.20.20.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:28 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:27 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.12.11.91.51.10.80.60.50.71.11.522.32.42.321.61.10.70.50.50.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.